How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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AU Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
AngloGold Ashanti plc, basic materials (market value $47.5 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
Key takeaways
- AU returned +394.7% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.76 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −71.6% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 50.1% and beta 0.71.
- 7 analysts rated it in the past year; 86% of their latest calls were Buy.
- AU beat earnings estimates in 2 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 6.4% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on AU say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did AU beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about AU
- AU returns by year vs the S&P 500
- AU risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How AU behaved in past crashes
- What moves with AU, and what doesn’t
- Latest AU upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get AU right?
- How AU moves after earnings
- Where AU’s revenue comes from
- Are AU insiders buying or selling?
- How much of AU is sold short?
- How many institutions own AU?
- Is AU diluting shareholders?
- AU financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold AU?
- The right benchmark for AU
- Other basic materials stocks
- Data and methodology
Did AU beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) returned +394.7% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 318.8 percentage points, or +37.7% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | AU | S&P 500 | AU per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +22.8% | +12.0% | +22.8% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +394.4% | +87.4% | +70.4% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +394.7% | +75.9% | +37.7% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +601.1% | +316.3% | +21.5% | +15.3% | Beat |
- 1 year
- AU
- +22.8%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- AU per year
- +22.8%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- AU
- +394.4%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- AU per year
- +70.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- AU
- +394.7%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- AU per year
- +37.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- AU
- +601.1%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- AU per year
- +21.5%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about AU
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 7 analysts published 101 ratings on AU. Their latest calls were 86% Buy, 14% Hold and 0% Sell. 6 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $109.50 (range $44.50–$180.00), +16.7% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 59.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 42.9% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 73.9% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 54.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 71.9% |
Other analysts covering AU: Joseph Reagor
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on AU are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
AU returns by year vs the S&P 500
AU beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | AU | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −3.1% | +11.7% | −14.8% |
| 2025 | +288.1% | +17.7% | +270.4% |
| 2024 | +25.5% | +24.9% | +0.6% |
| 2023 | −2.7% | +26.2% | −28.9% |
| 2022 | −5.1% | −18.2% | +13.1% |
| 2021 | −4.9% | +28.7% | −33.6% |
| 2020 | +1.9% | +18.3% | −16.4% |
| 2019 | +78.8% | +31.2% | +47.6% |
| 2018 | +24.1% | −4.6% | +28.7% |
| 2017 | −2.2% | +21.7% | −23.9% |
AU risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, AU had a Sharpe ratio of 0.76 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 56.7% and its beta 0.71: it tended to move about 0.7× as much as the market.
| Metric | AU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +37.7% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 56.7% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.55 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −43.8% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
How AU behaved in past crashes
AU’s deepest fall in the crises below was −71.6% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | AU | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −71.6% | −56.5% | −$71,590 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −10.7% | −20.2% | −$10,740 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −37.5% | −34.1% | −$37,500 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −52.8% | −25.4% | −$52,800 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −11.8% | −19.0% | −$11,810 |
| Window | AU max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −39.9% |
| Last 3 years | −39.9% |
| Last 5 years | −51.8% |
| Last 10 years | −68.4% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with AU, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, AU’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.19, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.18, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.38 and with gold (GLD) 0.81.
Adding a 5% AU position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.5%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | −0.14 | NEM | 0.73 |
| WFC | −0.12 | SCCO | 0.50 |
| KKR | −0.08 | FCX | 0.44 |
| SCHW | −0.08 | HCA | 0.35 |
| MRVL | −0.07 | NEE | 0.30 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest AU upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Target cut Buy | Joseph Reagor |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on AU in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get AU right?
Of the 68 analyst price targets on AU set from 2019 until a year ago, 88.2% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 19.6 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 28 days. The median target sat 10.5% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said AU would be by now: a year ago, 5 analysts had a price target on AU, and the median of their latest targets was $90.00. On Oct 20, 2026 AU closed at $90.83, 0.9% above it.
88.2%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
28 daysmedian time to reach a target
+0.9%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of AU | 4 | +2.8% | +34.7% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of AU | 3 | −1.7% | −21.7% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on AU through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How AU moves after earnings
AU beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 2 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 31, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 2 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 6.4% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 8 of the 12 reports. In 1 of the 2 beats the stock still fell.
2/12earnings beats
±6.4%average move per report
8/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | $1.98 vs $2.03 | −3.0% | −0.9% |
| May 8, 2026 | $2.52 vs $2.27 | −3.2% | +8.1% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | $1.90 vs $1.98 | −0.7% | +12.5% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | $1.32 vs $1.34 | −6.3% | +14.9% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $1.25 vs $1.31 | +6.9% | +15.0% |
| May 9, 2025 | $0.88 vs $0.95 | +4.7% | −4.1% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.89 vs $1.27 | −45.3% | −0.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.53 vs $0.81 | −4.8% | +5.4% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where AU’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2022 (the year to Dec 31, 2022), AU’s largest reported region was Australia, with 22.0% of its $4.4 billion revenue. By region: Australia 22.0%; Tanzania, United Republic of 21.0%; Ghana 19.9%; Brazil 16.3%.
By business, the largest segment was Spot Revenue, with 100.0% of $9.6 billion revenue (+79.3% on the year before).
From AU’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Are AU insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, AU insiders made no open‑market purchases and 1 sale worth $35,637, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of AU is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 0.87% of AU’s float was sold short: 4.4 million shares, or 1.6 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 1.32%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so AU is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own AU?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 611 institutions reported holding AU in 13F filings, down 1 from the quarter before and up from 363 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 46.4% of AU’s shares. In the quarter 322 institutions added to their positions and 179 cut them.
61113F holders
85new positions
88positions closed
46.4%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is AU diluting shareholders?
AU’s diluted share count rose 21.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 17.9% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
AU did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+17.9%share count, 1 year
+21.1%share count, 5 years
0.0%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from AU’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
AU financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, AU’s Altman Z‑score was 8.84, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.
8.84Altman Z‑score: safe zone
7/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold AU?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 17 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held AU. Its largest weight is in GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF), at 4.84% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of AU |
|---|---|---|
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | 4.84% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 1.24% |
| COWZ | Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF | 0.83% |
| RAAX | VanEck Real Assets ETF | 0.49% |
| IWR | iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | 0.34% |
| VONG | Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth Index Fund | 0.13% |
| IWF | iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF | 0.13% |
| IWB | iShares Russell 1000 ETF | 0.07% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for AU
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For AU that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other basic materials stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCCO | Southern Copper Corporation | +298.2% | 39.3% |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | +126.5% | 37.8% |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | +77.5% | 45.1% |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc. | +44.2% | 24.1% |
| SHW | The Sherwin-Williams Company | +9.9% | 26.1% |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | +19.8% | 26.6% |
| NUE | Nucor Corporation | +163.8% | 37.7% |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials Company | +53.9% | 26.0% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check AU with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average AU price target is 16.7% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on AU say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering AU are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. AU returned +601.1% (+21.5% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, AU (AngloGold Ashanti plc) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
AU fell −71.6% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
AU fell −37.5% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
AU fell −52.8% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, AU’s Sharpe ratio was 0.76 and its Sortino ratio 1.55, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
AU’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 50.1%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.71.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with AU over the last 60 months were VRT (−0.14), WFC (−0.12), KKR (−0.08). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.38 and with gold (GLD) 0.81.
AU beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 2 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 31, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 2 of 12. The stock moved 6.4% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 0.87% of AU’s float was sold short (4.4 million shares, 1.6 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 1.32%.
Yes. AU’s diluted share count rose 21.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 17.9% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.0% of revenue.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on AU now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on AU are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.