How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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USFD Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
US Foods Holding Corp., consumer defensive (market value $21.9 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
79% Buy ratings (was 73%)
Key takeaways
- USFD returned +198.8% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.76 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −75.6% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020) (S&P 500: −34.1%).
- Five‑year volatility was 29.9% and beta 0.87.
- 15 analysts rated it in the past year; 79% of their latest calls were Buy.
- USFD beat earnings estimates in 8 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 4.7% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on USFD say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did USFD beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about USFD
- USFD returns by year vs the S&P 500
- USFD risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How USFD behaved in past crashes
- What moves with USFD, and what doesn’t
- Latest USFD upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get USFD right?
- How USFD moves after earnings
- Where USFD’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded USFD
- Are USFD insiders buying or selling?
- How much of USFD is sold short?
- How many institutions own USFD?
- Is USFD diluting shareholders?
- USFD financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold USFD?
- Does USFD get federal contracts?
- The right benchmark for USFD
- Other consumer defensive stocks
- Data and methodology
Did USFD beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) returned +198.8% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 122.9 percentage points, or +24.5% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | USFD | S&P 500 | USFD per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +42.7% | +12.0% | +42.7% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +166.1% | +87.4% | +38.6% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +198.8% | +75.9% | +24.5% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +358.5% | +316.3% | +16.4% | +15.3% | Beat |
- 1 year
- USFD
- +42.7%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- USFD per year
- +42.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- USFD
- +166.1%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- USFD per year
- +38.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- USFD
- +198.8%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- USFD per year
- +24.5%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- USFD
- +358.5%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- USFD per year
- +16.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about USFD
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 15 analysts published 120 ratings on USFD. Their latest calls were 79% Buy, 21% Hold and 0% Sell. 8 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $117.67 (range $108.00–$127.00), +7.1% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 61.8% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 58.6% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 62.0% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 40.7% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 38.9% |
Other analysts covering USFD: Brian Mullan
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on USFD are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
USFD returns by year vs the S&P 500
USFD beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | USFD | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +37.6% | +11.7% | +25.9% |
| 2025 | +11.7% | +17.7% | −6.0% |
| 2024 | +48.6% | +24.9% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | +33.5% | +26.2% | +7.3% |
| 2022 | −2.3% | −18.2% | +15.9% |
| 2021 | +4.6% | +28.7% | −24.1% |
| 2020 | −20.5% | +18.3% | −38.8% |
| 2019 | +32.4% | +31.2% | +1.2% |
| 2018 | −0.9% | −4.6% | +3.7% |
| 2017 | +16.2% | +21.7% | −5.5% |
USFD risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, USFD had a Sharpe ratio of 0.76 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 30.0% and its beta 0.87: it tended to move about 0.9× as much as the market.
| Metric | USFD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +24.5% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 30.0% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.45 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −32.4% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.87 | 1.00 |
How USFD behaved in past crashes
USFD’s deepest fall in the crises below was −75.6% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | USFD | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −11.3% | −20.2% | −$11,280 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −75.6% | −34.1% | −$75,640 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −32.8% | −25.4% | −$32,800 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −15.6% | −19.0% | −$15,640 |
| Window | USFD max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −21.1% |
| Last 3 years | −21.1% |
| Last 5 years | −34.1% |
| Last 10 years | −77.3% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with USFD, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, USFD’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.45, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.28, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.42 and with gold (GLD) 0.12.
Adding a 5% USFD position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.4%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | −0.11 | CSX | 0.68 |
| CRWD | −0.07 | PH | 0.61 |
| UNH | −0.04 | SYK | 0.58 |
| PFE | −0.03 | WELL | 0.55 |
| NOW | −0.02 | DE | 0.55 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest USFD upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
No named analyst changed a rating or price target on USFD in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026 (calls are shown 30 days after publication). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get USFD right?
Of the 231 analyst price targets on USFD set from 2019 until a year ago, 80.1% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 11.5 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 146 days. The median target sat 17.2% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said USFD would be by now: a year ago, 8 analysts had a price target on USFD, and the median of their latest targets was $92.50. On Oct 20, 2026 USFD closed at $103.05, 11.4% above it.
80.1%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
146 daysmedian time to reach a target
+11.4%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of USFD | 6 | +1.1% | +1.0% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of USFD | 3 | −1.2% | −8.6% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on USFD through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How USFD moves after earnings
USFD beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 8 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 4.7% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 9 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 8 beats the stock still fell.
8/12earnings beats
±4.7%average move per report
9/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $1.44 vs $1.36 | +0.7% | +8.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.78 vs $0.81 | −0.5% | −8.3% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $1.04 vs $1.00 | −0.9% | +11.1% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.07 vs $1.04 | +0.2% | −0.8% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $1.19 vs $1.14 | −0.9% | −5.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.68 vs $0.69 | −0.4% | +3.7% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | $0.84 vs $0.79 | +0.0% | +1.9% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.85 vs $0.83 | +0.1% | +1.7% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where USFD’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025, USFD’s largest segment was Product One, with 35.4% of $39.4 billion revenue (+8.1% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product One | $14.0 billion | 35.4% | +8.1% |
| Product Two | $6.7 billion | 17.0% | +0.9% |
| Product Three | $6.6 billion | 16.8% | +3.3% |
| Product Four | $4.2 billion | 10.7% | +4.4% |
| Product Five | $3.6 billion | 9.2% | +1.8% |
| Product Six | $2.3 billion | 5.9% | +8.2% |
| Product Seven | $1.9 billion | 4.9% | −8.8% |
From USFD’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded USFD
As of Oct 20, 2026, 5 members of Congress had disclosed 24 trades in USFD (14 buys and 10 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Sep 23, 2025.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2025 | Valerie Hoyle | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 10, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ??? | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Valerie Hoyle | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 30, 2022 | Susie Lee | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 10, 2021 | Susie Lee | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 4, 2020 | Susie Lee | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 23, 2020 | Adam Kinzinger | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 23, 2020 | Adam Kinzinger | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. Locked names belong to the 10 members whose stock buys did best; who they are is in Exent Radar. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are USFD insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, USFD insiders made no open‑market purchases and 8 sales worth $18.5 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Feb 18, 2025.
After the 6 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, USFD beat the S&P 500 by an average of 21.6 percentage points over the next 12 months; every one was followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2025 | Bullock David W | Director | $284,240 |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Carruthers Court D | Director | $499,122 |
| Mar 11, 2022 | Bachelder Cheryl A | Director | $207,420 |
| Mar 7, 2022 | Dutkowsky Robert M | Director | $1.0 million |
| Jun 10, 2020 | Pforzheimer Carl Andrew | Director | $105,441 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of USFD is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 6.40% of USFD’s float was sold short: 13.8 million shares, or 4.9 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 3.50%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so USFD is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own USFD?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 686 institutions reported holding USFD in 13F filings, down 5 from the quarter before and up from 658 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 108.6% of USFD’s shares. In the quarter 316 institutions added to their positions and 276 cut them.
68613F holders
83new positions
89positions closed
108.6%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is USFD diluting shareholders?
USFD’s diluted share count rose 4.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 5.7% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $83.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.2% of revenue. USFD spent $976.0 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 4.13% of its market value; stock pay equaled 8.5% of the buybacks.
−5.7%share count, 1 year
+4.5%share count, 5 years
0.2%stock pay as % of revenue
4.13%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from USFD’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
USFD financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, USFD’s Altman Z‑score was 4.73, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 6 out of 9; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more.
4.73Altman Z‑score: safe zone
6/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold USFD?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 31 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held USFD. Its largest weight is in RFV (Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Pure Value ETF), at 0.89% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of USFD |
|---|---|---|
| RFV | Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Pure Value ETF | 0.89% |
| FSTA | Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF | 0.80% |
| IJH | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.65% |
| SPMD | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.64% |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.64% |
| SCHM | Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF | 0.45% |
| VBR | Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.45% |
| VB | Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.25% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
Does USFD get federal contracts?
In federal fiscal year 2026 (October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026), US government agencies obligated $233.3 million in contracts to US Foods Holding Corp. and its units, according to USAspending.gov, down 8.6% from $255.4 million the year before.
| Fiscal year | Contract obligations |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $233.3 million |
| 2025 | $255.4 million |
Contract obligations are what agencies committed in the year, not cash paid; every subsidiary and unit USAspending.gov lists under the parent company is rolled up into one total. Which companies get the most federal contracts?
The right benchmark for USFD
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For USFD that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other consumer defensive stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | +164.0% | 21.7% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | +117.3% | 23.1% |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company | +93.2% | 16.0% |
| PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | +28.5% | 17.7% |
| PM | Philip Morris International Inc. | +177.9% | 22.6% |
| PEP | PepsiCo, Inc. | −0.1% | 18.3% |
| MO | Altria Group, Inc. | +159.8% | 20.7% |
| MNST | Monster Beverage Corporation | +122.8% | 24.5% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check USFD with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average USFD price target is 7.1% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on USFD say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering USFD are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. USFD returned +358.5% (+16.4% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, USFD (US Foods Holding Corp.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
USFD fell −75.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
USFD fell −32.8% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, USFD’s Sharpe ratio was 0.76 and its Sortino ratio 1.45, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
USFD’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 29.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.87.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with USFD over the last 60 months were QCOM (−0.11), CRWD (−0.07), UNH (−0.04). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.42 and with gold (GLD) 0.12.
USFD beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 8 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 4.7% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 5 members of Congress had disclosed 24 trades in USFD (14 buys and 10 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 6.40% of USFD’s float was sold short (13.8 million shares, 4.9 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 3.50%.
Yes. USFD’s diluted share count rose 4.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 5.7% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.2% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $976.0 million.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on USFD now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on USFD are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.