How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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SN Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
SharkNinja, Inc., consumer cyclical (market value $29.8 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
91% Buy ratings (was 92%)11 analysts covering (was 12)
Key takeaways
- SN returned +409.9% over the 3 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +87.4% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 3-year Sharpe ratio was 1.43 against 1.43 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −41.5% in the 2025 tariff selloff (S&P 500: −19.0%).
- Five‑year volatility was 49.1% and beta 1.49.
- 11 analysts rated it in the past year; 91% of their latest calls were Buy.
- SN beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 7.9% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on SN say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did SN beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about SN
- SN returns by year vs the S&P 500
- SN risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How SN behaved in past crashes
- What moves with SN, and what doesn’t
- Latest SN upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get SN right?
- How SN moves after earnings
- Where SN’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded SN
- Are SN insiders buying or selling?
- How much of SN is sold short?
- How many institutions own SN?
- Is SN diluting shareholders?
- SN financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold SN?
- The right benchmark for SN
- Other consumer cyclical stocks
- Data and methodology
Did SN beat the S&P 500?
Over the 3 years to Oct 30, 2026, SharkNinja, Inc. (SN) returned +409.9% including dividends, versus +87.4% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 322.5 percentage points, or +72.1% a year against +23.3%.
| Period | SN | S&P 500 | SN per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +143.3% | +12.0% | +143.3% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +409.9% | +87.4% | +72.1% | +23.3% | Beat |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years |
|---|---|---|
| SN | +143.3% | +409.9% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% |
| SN per year | +143.3% | +72.1% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% |
| Result | Beat | Beat |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about SN
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 11 analysts published 172 ratings on SN. Their latest calls were 91% Buy, 9% Hold and 0% Sell. 2 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $220.39 (range $170.00–$300.00), −2.7% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 65.2% |
| Steven Forbes | Guggenheim | 4.7★ | 45.3% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on SN are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
SN returns by year vs the S&P 500
SN beat the S&P 500 in 1 of the 2 full calendar years shown.
| Year | SN | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +85.9% | +11.7% | +74.2% |
| 2025 | +14.9% | +17.7% | −2.8% |
| 2024 | +90.3% | +24.9% | +65.4% |
SN risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 3 years, SN had a Sharpe ratio of 1.43 against 1.43 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 41.8% and its beta 1.49: it tended to move about 1.5× as much as the market.
| Metric | SN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +72.1% | +23.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.8% | 12.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.64 | 3.02 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −28.0% | −7.6% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.49 | 1.00 |
How SN behaved in past crashes
SN’s deepest fall in the crises below was −41.5% in the 2025 tariff selloff, against −19.0% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | SN | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 tariff selloff | −41.5% | −19.0% | −$41,470 |
| Window | SN max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −30.2% |
| Last 3 years | −42.6% |
| Last 5 years | −42.6% |
| Last 10 years | −42.6% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with SN, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 36 months of monthly returns, SN’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.44, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.25, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.28 and with gold (GLD) −0.10.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | −0.09 | ECL | 0.61 |
| MCK | −0.05 | MCO | 0.58 |
| T | −0.04 | PH | 0.57 |
| AVGO | −0.03 | SBUX | 0.53 |
| XOM | −0.03 | PNC | 0.51 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest SN upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
No named analyst changed a rating or price target on SN in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026 (calls are shown 30 days after publication). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get SN right?
Of the 122 analyst price targets on SN set from 2019 until a year ago, 77.9% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 9.3 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 111 days. The median target sat 22.6% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said SN would be by now: a year ago, 7 analysts had a price target on SN, and the median of their latest targets was $138.00. On Oct 20, 2026 SN closed at $198.72, 44.0% above it.
77.9%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
111 daysmedian time to reach a target
+44.0%price now vs the median target set a year ago
How SN moves after earnings
SN beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 7.9% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 8 of the 12 reports. In 4 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
12/12earnings beats
±7.9%average move per report
8/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $1.26 vs $1.11 | +6.8% | +7.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.09 vs $1.02 | +2.1% | −3.7% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $1.93 vs $1.78 | +0.8% | +8.7% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.50 vs $1.32 | +1.9% | +7.0% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.97 vs $0.77 | +4.4% | +1.7% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.87 vs $0.73 | +4.6% | +13.6% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | $1.40 vs $1.26 | +9.9% | −0.3% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $1.21 vs $1.14 | −11.2% | −19.7% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where SN’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), SN’s largest reported region was North America, with 67.3% of its $6.4 billion revenue. By region: North America 67.3%; Europe 32.7%.
By business, the largest segment was Cleaning Appliances, with 34.5% of $6.4 billion revenue (+6.9% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleaning Appliances | $2.2 billion | 34.5% | +6.9% |
| Cooking and Beverage Appliances | $1.8 billion | 28.4% | +5.7% |
| Food Preparation Appliances | $1.6 billion | 24.2% | +31.6% |
| Beauty and Home Environment Appliances | $826.3 million | 12.9% | +45.3% |
From SN’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded SN
As of Oct 20, 2026, 1 member of Congress had disclosed 1 trade in SN (0 buys and 1 sale) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Sep 23, 2025.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2025 | Valerie Hoyle | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are SN insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, SN insiders made no open‑market purchases and 28 sales worth $199.0 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Sep 14, 2017.
After the 1 insider purchase of $10,000 or more since 2012, SN lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 18.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; none of them was followed by a beat (a small sample). Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2017 | Sanchez Eduardo Augusto | President | $476,590 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of SN is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 10.36% of SN’s float was sold short: 8.9 million shares, or 3.8 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 7.89%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so SN is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own SN?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 594 institutions reported holding SN in 13F filings, up 92 from the quarter before and up from 404 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 65.2% of SN’s shares. In the quarter 377 institutions added to their positions and 145 cut them.
59413F holders
166new positions
68positions closed
65.2%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is SN diluting shareholders?
SN’s diluted share count rose 0.7% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company.
Stock‑based compensation was $43.9 million in fiscal 2025, 0.7% of revenue. SN did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+0.7%share count, 1 year
0.7%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from SN’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
SN financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, SN’s Altman Z‑score was 8.50, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.
8.50Altman Z‑score: safe zone
7/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold SN?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 32 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held SN. Its largest weight is in RFV (Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Pure Value ETF), at 1.47% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of SN |
|---|---|---|
| RFV | Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Pure Value ETF | 1.47% |
| FBCG | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF | 0.80% |
| IJH | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.47% |
| SPMD | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.46% |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.46% |
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.43% |
| FNDA | Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company Index ETF | 0.24% |
| VB | Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.19% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for SN
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For SN that is MDY. Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other consumer cyclical stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | +42.5% | 36.5% |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | +7.7% | 58.6% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | +0.5% | 24.6% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | +18.1% | 17.2% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | +130.3% | 22.2% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | +56.6% | 33.5% |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | −1.2% | 26.1% |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | +10.0% | 31.3% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check SN with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average SN price target is 2.7% below the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on SN say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering SN are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, SN (SharkNinja, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
Over the 3 years to Oct 30, 2026, SN’s Sharpe ratio was 1.43 and its Sortino ratio 2.64, versus 1.43 and 3.02 for the S&P 500.
SN’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 49.1%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.49.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with SN over the last 36 months were INTC (−0.09), MCK (−0.05), T (−0.04). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.28 and with gold (GLD) −0.10.
SN beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. The stock moved 7.9% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 1 member of Congress had disclosed 1 trade in SN (0 buys and 1 sale) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 10.36% of SN’s float was sold short (8.9 million shares, 3.8 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 7.89%.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on SN now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on SN are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.