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OMC Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Omnicom Group Inc., communication services (market value $22.8 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Nov 2

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

46% Buy ratings (was 42%)

Key takeaways

  • OMC returned +42.7% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.26 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −58.2% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 28.6% and beta 0.72.
  • 13 analysts rated it in the past year; 46% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • OMC beat earnings estimates in 10 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 3.8% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on OMC say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did OMC beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) returned +42.7% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 33.2 percentage points, or +7.4% a year against +12.0%.

PeriodOMCS&P 500OMC per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+12.8%+12.0%+12.8%+12.0%Beat
3 years+20.6%+87.4%+6.4%+23.3%Lagged
5 years+42.7%+75.9%+7.4%+12.0%Lagged
10 years+44.6%+316.3%+3.8%+15.3%Lagged
  • 1 year
    OMC
    +12.8%
    S&P 500
    +12.0%
    OMC per year
    +12.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Beat
  • 3 years
    OMC
    +20.6%
    S&P 500
    +87.4%
    OMC per year
    +6.4%
    S&P 500 per year
    +23.3%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    OMC
    +42.7%
    S&P 500
    +75.9%
    OMC per year
    +7.4%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    OMC
    +44.6%
    S&P 500
    +316.3%
    OMC per year
    +3.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.3%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

OMC is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about OMC

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 13 analysts published 97 ratings on OMC. Their latest calls were 46% Buy, 46% Hold and 8% Sell. 3 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
??????4.9★59.1%
??????4.9★48.3%
??????4.8★44.9%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on OMC are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

OMC returns by year vs the S&P 500

OMC beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearOMCS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Oct 30, 2026)+3.8%+11.7%−7.9%
2025−2.6%+17.7%−20.3%
2024+2.5%+24.9%−22.4%
2023+9.6%+26.2%−16.6%
2022+15.7%−18.2%+33.9%
2021+21.9%+28.7%−6.8%
2020−19.6%+18.3%−37.9%
2019+14.4%+31.2%−16.8%
2018+3.9%−4.6%+8.5%
2017−11.9%+21.7%−33.6%

OMC risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, OMC had a Sharpe ratio of 0.26 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 26.1% and its beta 0.72: it tended to move about 0.7× as much as the market.

MetricOMCS&P 500
Annual return+7.4%+12.0%
Volatility (annualized)26.1%15.5%
Sharpe ratio0.260.58
Sortino ratio0.390.91
Max drawdown (month-end)−29.6%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.721.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How OMC behaved in past crashes

OMC’s deepest fall in the crises below was −58.2% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisOMCS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−58.2%−56.5%−$58,240
2018 trade-war selloff−11.0%−20.2%−$10,990
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−38.7%−34.1%−$38,690
2022 inflation bear market−31.3%−25.4%−$31,290
2025 tariff selloff−17.7%−19.0%−$17,710
WindowOMC max drawdown
Last 1 year−17.9%
Last 3 years−33.3%
Last 5 years−33.3%
Last 10 years−48.2%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with OMC, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, OMC’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.43, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.20, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.42 and with gold (GLD) 0.31.

Adding a 5% OMC position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.3%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
CRWD−0.16SYK0.62
META−0.08HCA0.58
DELL−0.05CTAS0.58
SNOW−0.04FCX0.56
GOOGL−0.04BRK-B0.55

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest OMC upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Oct 9Target cut
Hold
Target $88, was $90
Julien Roch
Barclays
Sep 30Target raised
Buy
Target $141, was $139
Adam Berlin
Goldman Sachs

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on OMC in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get OMC right?

Of the 159 analyst price targets on OMC set from 2019 until a year ago, 56.0% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 12.6 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 76 days. The median target sat 12.8% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said OMC would be by now: a year ago, 3 analysts had a price target on OMC, and the median of their latest targets was $87.00. On Oct 20, 2026 OMC closed at $81.11, 6.8% below it.

56.0%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
76 daysmedian time to reach a target
−6.8%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of OMC11+1.3%+0.7%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of OMC7+0.4%−5.8%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on OMC through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How OMC moves after earnings

OMC beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 10 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 28, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 9 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 3.8% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 5 of the 10 beats the stock still fell.

10/12earnings beats
±3.8%average move per report
7/12reports followed by a rise
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Jul 28, 2026$2.65 vs $2.67+1.9%+0.2%
Apr 28, 2026$1.90 vs $1.82+6.7%+0.2%
Feb 18, 2026$2.59 vs $2.72+22.8%+19.1%
Oct 21, 2025$2.24 vs $2.16+0.5%+3.9%
Jul 15, 2025$2.05 vs $2.02+1.0%+1.9%
Apr 15, 2025$1.70 vs $1.65−0.5%−6.9%
Feb 4, 2025$2.41 vs $2.38+0.3%−3.2%
Oct 15, 2024$2.03 vs $2.02−11.0%+2.2%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where OMC’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), OMC’s largest reported region was North America, with 36.4% of its $26.4 billion revenue. By region: North America 36.4%; United States 34.5%; Emea 18.2%; Asia Pacific 7.3%.

By business, the largest segment was Advertising, with 72.2% of $13.9 billion revenue (+18.3% on the year before).

  • North America36.4%
  • United States34.5%
  • Emea18.2%
  • Asia Pacific7.3%
  • Latin America2.0%
  • Middle East and Africa1.6%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Advertising$10.0 billion72.2%+18.3%
Public relations$1.6 billion11.6%−3.9%
Health Care$1.4 billion9.9%+1.9%
Experiential$862.7 million6.2%+17.9%

From OMC’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded OMC

As of Oct 20, 2026, 8 members of Congress had disclosed 22 trades in OMC (8 buys and 14 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Apr 14, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Apr 14, 2026Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongBuy$1,001–$15,000
Mar 13, 2026Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jan 29, 2026Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 29, 2026John BoozmanSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 15, 2026John BoozmanSale$1,001–$15,000
Oct 31, 2025John BoozmanSale$1,001–$15,000
Apr 8, 2025Rob BresnahanSale$1,001–$15,000
Oct 31, 2023Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Oct 10, 2023Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

Are OMC insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, OMC insiders made no open‑market purchases and 2 sales worth $237,801, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Aug 8, 2011.

Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
Q4 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Aug 8, 2011Cook Errol MDirector$20,583
Oct 27, 2008Batkin Alan RDirector$21,920
May 16, 2005Cook Errol MDirector$41,270
Mar 11, 2004Cook Errol MDirector$37,915
Jan 8, 2004Clark Robert CDirector$17,442

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of OMC is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.85% of OMC’s float was sold short: 24.0 million shares, or 6.3 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 10.97%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so OMC is more heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 202610.03%
  • May 29, 202611.78%
  • Jun 30, 202610.40%
  • Jul 31, 20269.94%
  • Aug 31, 20269.84%
  • Sep 30, 20268.85%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own OMC?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,132 institutions reported holding OMC in 13F filings, down 32 from the quarter before and up from 971 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 144.9% of OMC’s shares. In the quarter 464 institutions added to their positions and 498 cut them.

1,13213F holders
112new positions
143positions closed
144.9%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is OMC diluting shareholders?

OMC’s diluted share count fell 5.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 3.2% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $100.8 million in fiscal 2025, 0.6% of revenue. OMC spent $707.9 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 2.92% of its market value; stock pay equaled 14.2% of the buybacks.

+3.2%share count, 1 year
−5.2%share count, 5 years
0.6%stock pay as % of revenue
2.92%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from OMC’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

OMC financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, OMC’s Altman Z‑score was 1.14, in the distress zone (where 180 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 6 out of 9; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more.

1.14Altman Z‑score: distress zone
6/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What OMC talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Jul 28, 2026), OMC’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 12 times, against 9 on the call before (Apr 28, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was ai agents (8).

MentionsJul ’26Apr ’26Feb ’26Oct ’25
AI1291821
AI agents8732
Data centers0000
Tariffs1004
China0010
Recession0000
  • AI
    Jul ’26
    12
    Apr ’26
    9
    Feb ’26
    18
    Oct ’25
    21
  • AI agents
    Jul ’26
    8
    Apr ’26
    7
    Feb ’26
    3
    Oct ’25
    2
  • Data centers
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Tariffs
    Jul ’26
    1
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    4
  • China
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    1
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold OMC?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 50 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held OMC. Its largest weight is in XLC (State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF), at 2.91% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of OMC
XLCState Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF2.91%
FCOMFidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF1.40%
DVYiShares Select Dividend ETF1.22%
DSTLDistillate U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value ETF0.96%
FDLFirst Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund0.55%
COWZPacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF0.54%
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares0.46%
SCHMSchwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF0.46%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is OMC’s CEO paid?

John D. Wren, OMC’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $69.9 million for fiscal 2025, up 222.4% from $21.7 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 26, 2026. 99% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so OMC’s CEO earned 4.1 times as much.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$416,6670.6%
Stock and option awards$69.3 million99.2%
Other$169,1790.2%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2025
Daryl D. SimmCo-President and Co-Chief Operating Officer$10.0 million
Philip J. AngelastroExecutive VP and Chief Financial Officer$8.9 million
Louis F. JanuzziSenior VP, General Counsel and Secretary$2.2 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

Does OMC get federal contracts?

In federal fiscal year 2023 (October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023), US government agencies obligated $261.3 million in contracts to Omnicom Group Inc. and its units, according to USAspending.gov.

Fiscal yearContract obligations
2023$261.3 million

Contract obligations are what agencies committed in the year, not cash paid; every subsidiary and unit USAspending.gov lists under the parent company is rolled up into one total. Which companies get the most federal contracts?

The right benchmark for OMC

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For OMC that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other communication services stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
GOOGLAlphabet Inc.+90.8%32.0%
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.+91.9%44.3%
NFLXNetflix, Inc.−10.1%44.5%
DISThe Walt Disney Company−32.3%29.6%
VZVerizon Communications Inc.+16.2%21.5%
TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.+43.1%23.8%
TAT&T Inc.+49.6%23.9%
CMCSAComcast Corporation−46.6%28.2%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check OMC with Exent Gems

See what the best‑ranked analysts on OMC say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering OMC are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. OMC returned +44.6% (+3.8% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, OMC (Omnicom Group Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

OMC fell −58.2% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

OMC fell −38.7% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

OMC fell −31.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, OMC’s Sharpe ratio was 0.26 and its Sortino ratio 0.39, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

OMC’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 28.6%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.72.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with OMC over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.16), META (−0.08), DELL (−0.05). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.42 and with gold (GLD) 0.31.

OMC beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 10 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 28, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 9 of 12. The stock moved 3.8% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

John D. Wren, OMC’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, received $69.9 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $416,667 salary and $69.3 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 26, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 8 members of Congress had disclosed 22 trades in OMC (8 buys and 14 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.85% of OMC’s float was sold short (24.0 million shares, 6.3 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 10.97%.

No. OMC’s diluted share count fell 5.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 3.2% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.6% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $707.9 million.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on OMC now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on OMC are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.