How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
ETFsInsight
XLC ETF vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (market value $21.8 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns. Returns to Oct 30, 2026.
Key takeaways
- XLC returned +31.2% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.19 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −39.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 20.6% and beta 1.01.
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Did XLC beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) returned +31.2% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 44.7 percentage points, or +5.6% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | XLC | S&P 500 | XLC per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −11.9% | +12.0% | −11.9% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +59.8% | +87.4% | +16.9% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +31.2% | +75.9% | +5.6% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLC | −11.9% | +59.8% | +31.2% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| XLC per year | −11.9% | +16.9% | +5.6% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Lagged | Lagged | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
XLC returns by year vs the S&P 500
XLC beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 7 full calendar years shown.
| Year | XLC | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −14.4% | +11.7% | −26.1% |
| 2025 | +23.1% | +17.7% | +5.4% |
| 2024 | +34.7% | +24.9% | +9.8% |
| 2023 | +52.8% | +26.2% | +26.6% |
| 2022 | −37.6% | −18.2% | −19.4% |
| 2021 | +16.0% | +28.7% | −12.7% |
| 2020 | +26.9% | +18.3% | +8.6% |
| 2019 | +31.1% | +31.2% | −0.1% |
XLC risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, XLC had a Sharpe ratio of 0.19 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 19.1% and its beta 1.01: it tended to move about 1.0× as much as the market.
| Metric | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.6% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 19.1% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.19 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.26 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −39.8% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.01 | 1.00 |
How XLC behaved in past crashes
XLC’s deepest fall in the crises below was −39.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | XLC | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −30.1% | −34.1% | −$30,150 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −39.1% | −25.4% | −$39,110 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −17.9% | −19.0% | −$17,920 |
| Window | XLC max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −10.6% |
| Last 3 years | −18.0% |
| Last 5 years | −46.7% |
| Last 10 years | −47.2% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with XLC, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, XLC’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.82, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.80, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.49 and with gold (GLD) 0.36.
Adding a 5% XLC position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.5%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | −0.09 | NVDA | 0.68 |
| REGN | −0.04 | META | 0.68 |
| MRK | −0.01 | BLK | 0.66 |
| LLY | 0.00 | MCO | 0.66 |
| GD | 0.01 | AMZN | 0.63 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What does XLC hold?
As of Oct 20, 2026, XLC held 22 positions; its 10 largest made up 76.3% of the fund. The largest was META (Meta Platforms, Inc.) at 22.98%.
| Holding | Name | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 22.98% |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | 12.41% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 9.93% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 4.99% |
| TTWO | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | 4.61% |
| T | AT&T Inc. | 4.38% |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | 4.36% |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corporation | 4.23% |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | 4.21% |
| APP | AppLovin Corporation | 4.19% |
From the fund’s latest published holdings. Overlap by weight adds up, for every stock both funds hold, the smaller of its two weights: 100% would mean the same portfolio. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for XLC
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For XLC that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other popular ETFs
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares | +68.1% | 17.4% |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.8% |
| IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.9% |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +75.9% | 17.0% |
| 1557.T | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +78.6% | 20.8% |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total Intl Stock Idx Fund | +47.5% | 16.0% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | +84.3% | 22.3% |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | +66.9% | 22.2% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Holdings and weights are the fund’s latest published holdings; ETF overlap compares those holdings stock by stock.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what XLC does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, XLC included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with XLC and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
No. XLC returned +31.2% (+5.6% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
XLC fell −30.1% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
XLC fell −39.1% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, XLC’s Sharpe ratio was 0.19 and its Sortino ratio 0.26, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
XLC’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 20.6%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.01.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with XLC over the last 60 months were LMT (−0.09), REGN (−0.04), MRK (−0.01). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.49 and with gold (GLD) 0.36.
What would XLC do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.