StocksInsight

O Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Realty Income Corporation, real estate (market value $52.5 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 26

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

27% Buy ratings (was 30%)23 analysts covering (was 21)+3.6% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was −5.4%)

Key takeaways

  • O returned +7.6% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was −0.01 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −50.7% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 18.9% and beta 0.65.
  • 23 analysts rated it in the past year; 27% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • O beat earnings estimates in 1 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 1.2% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on O say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did O beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Realty Income Corporation (O) returned +7.6% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 68.3 percentage points, or +1.5% a year against +12.0%.

PeriodOS&P 500O per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+3.6%+12.0%+3.6%+12.0%Lagged
3 years+41.8%+87.4%+12.3%+23.3%Lagged
5 years+7.6%+75.9%+1.5%+12.0%Lagged
10 years+60.8%+316.3%+4.9%+15.3%Lagged
  • 1 year
    O
    +3.6%
    S&P 500
    +12.0%
    O per year
    +3.6%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 3 years
    O
    +41.8%
    S&P 500
    +87.4%
    O per year
    +12.3%
    S&P 500 per year
    +23.3%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    O
    +7.6%
    S&P 500
    +75.9%
    O per year
    +1.5%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    O
    +60.8%
    S&P 500
    +316.3%
    O per year
    +4.9%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.3%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

O is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about O

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 23 analysts published 167 ratings on O. Their latest calls were 27% Buy, 68% Hold and 5% Sell. 5 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $67.85 (range $60.00–$75.00), +17.8% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
??????4.7★32.5%
??????4.7★34.6%
??????4.6★52.3%
??????4.6★39.2%
??????4.5★49.6%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on O are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

O returns by year vs the S&P 500

O beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearOS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Oct 30, 2026)+5.6%+11.7%−6.1%
2025+12.2%+17.7%−5.5%
2024−2.1%+24.9%−27.0%
2023−4.5%+26.2%−30.7%
2022−7.0%−18.2%+11.2%
2021+24.1%+28.7%−4.6%
2020−11.6%+18.3%−29.9%
2019+21.2%+31.2%−10.0%
2018+16.0%−4.6%+20.6%
2017+3.7%+21.7%−18.0%

O risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, O had a Sharpe ratio of −0.01 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 19.9% and its beta 0.65: it tended to move about 0.7× as much as the market.

MetricOS&P 500
Annual return+1.5%+12.0%
Volatility (annualized)19.9%15.5%
Sharpe ratio−0.010.58
Sortino ratio−0.020.91
Max drawdown (month-end)−31.5%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.651.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How O behaved in past crashes

O’s deepest fall in the crises below was −50.7% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisOS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−50.7%−56.5%−$50,660
2018 trade-war selloff−9.2%−20.2%−$9,150
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−48.4%−34.1%−$48,440
2022 inflation bear market−23.5%−25.4%−$23,460
2025 tariff selloff−10.6%−19.0%−$10,630
WindowO max drawdown
Last 1 year−11.1%
Last 3 years−26.5%
Last 5 years−34.5%
Last 10 years−48.4%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with O, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, O’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.51, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.29, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.62 and with gold (GLD) 0.39.

Adding a 5% O position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.2%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
CRWD−0.11MCD0.70
DELL−0.09DUK0.69
NET−0.07AMT0.67
SNOW−0.05KO0.65
PANW−0.04PLD0.65

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest O upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Oct 2New coverage
Hold
Target $60
Linda Tsai
Truist Financial
Sep 24Downgrade
Buy → Hold
Target $59, was $72
Greg McGinniss
Scotiabank
Sep 24Downgrade
Buy → Hold
Target $59, was $67
Nicholas Yulico
Scotiabank
Sep 21Target cut
Hold
Target $65, was $68
James Kammert
Evercore ISI
Sep 16Target cut
Hold
Target $61, was $66
Haendel St. Juste
Mizuho Securities
Sep 4Target cut
Hold
Target $65, was $67
Richard Hightower
Barclays
Sep 1Target cut
Hold
Target $64, was $65
John Kilichowski
Wells Fargo

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on O in the 5 weeks to Oct 4, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get O right?

Of the 266 analyst price targets on O set from 2019 until a year ago, 56.0% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 12.6 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 84 days. The median target sat 9.1% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said O would be by now: a year ago, 7 analysts had a price target on O, and the median of their latest targets was $62.00. On Oct 20, 2026 O closed at $56.35, 9.1% below it.

56.0%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
84 daysmedian time to reach a target
−9.1%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of O12+0.7%−6.7%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of O10−1.0%+1.9%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on O through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How O moves after earnings

O beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 1 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 1.2% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 3 of the 12 reports. In 1 of the 1 beats the stock still fell.

1/12earnings beats
±1.2%average move per report
3/12reports followed by a rise
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Aug 5, 2026$0.37 vs $0.40+1.5%−0.9%
May 6, 2026$0.33 vs $0.40+3.3%−2.8%
Feb 24, 2026$0.32 vs $0.38+2.8%−1.0%
Nov 3, 2025$0.34 vs $0.40+5.5%−3.2%
Aug 4, 2025$0.22 vs $0.40+5.4%+1.1%
May 5, 2025$0.28 vs $0.36+4.9%−0.3%
Feb 24, 2025$0.23 vs $0.38+4.5%−1.5%
Nov 4, 2024$0.30 vs $0.36+5.4%−0.1%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where O’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), O’s largest reported region was the United States, with 100.0% of its $2.2 billion revenue.

By business, the largest segment was Product And Service, Retail, with 100.0% of $4.3 billion revenue (+7.9% on the year before).

From O’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded O

As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 35 trades in O (20 buys and 15 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Mar 27, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongBuy$1,001–$15,000
Dec 19, 2025Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Nov 12, 2025Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Aug 5, 2025Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
May 12, 2025Jefferson ShreveSale$50,001–$100,000
Apr 1, 2025Julie JohnsonSale$1,001–$15,000
Feb 13, 2024Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Nov 3, 2023Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Oct 31, 2023Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Sep 6, 2023Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

Are O insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, O insiders made no open‑market purchases and 3 sales worth $873,554, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Jan 12, 2021.

After the 2 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, O lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 16.0 percentage points over the next 12 months; none of them was followed by a beat (a small sample). Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q4 ’24
Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Jan 12, 2021Huskins Priya CherianDirector$517
Jan 11, 2021Huskins Priya CherianDirector$357
Jan 8, 2021Huskins Priya CherianDirector$356
Nov 30, 2020Huskins Priya CherianDirector$4,021
Jun 12, 2013Fahey GregSenior VP, Controller$10,028

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of O is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.49% of O’s float was sold short: 42.4 million shares, or 4.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 4.10%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so O is less heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20263.53%
  • May 29, 20264.09%
  • Jun 30, 20264.61%
  • Jul 31, 20264.80%
  • Aug 31, 20264.34%
  • Sep 30, 20264.49%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own O?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,517 institutions reported holding O in 13F filings, up 19 from the quarter before and up from 1,346 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 81.3% of O’s shares. In the quarter 799 institutions added to their positions and 486 cut them.

1,51713F holders
139new positions
116positions closed
81.3%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is O diluting shareholders?

O’s diluted share count rose 161.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 3.2% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $30.8 million in fiscal 2025, 0.5% of revenue. O did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.

+3.2%share count, 1 year
+161.9%share count, 5 years
0.5%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from O’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

O financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, O’s Piotroski F‑score was 6 out of 9; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more. The Altman Z‑score is not meaningful for real estate companies, so it is left out.

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What O talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Aug 5, 2026), O’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 1 time, against 0 on the call before (May 6, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (30). Tariffs and recession did not come up.

MentionsAug ’26May ’26Feb ’26Nov ’25
AI10146
AI agents0000
Data centers301132
Tariffs0000
China0000
Recession0000
  • AI
    Aug ’26
    1
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    14
    Nov ’25
    6
  • AI agents
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Aug ’26
    30
    May ’26
    11
    Feb ’26
    3
    Nov ’25
    2
  • Tariffs
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • China
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold O?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 42 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held O. Its largest weight is in SCHH (Schwab U.S. REIT ETF), at 3.91% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of O
SCHHSchwab U.S. REIT ETF3.91%
VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares3.34%
SDYState Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF1.95%
VOTVanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund1.21%
FDVVFidelity High Dividend ETF0.76%
DYNFiShares U.S. Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF0.70%
USMViShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF0.58%
IWSiShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF0.51%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is O’s CEO paid?

Sumit Roy, O’s President, Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $16.3 million for fiscal 2025, up 6.6% from $15.2 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 25, 2026. 56% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so O’s CEO earned less than most.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$1.0 million6.2%
Stock and option awards$9.1 million56.3%
Incentive plan (cash)$5.0 million30.6%
Other$1.1 million6.9%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2025
Neil M. AbrahamExecutive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer and President, Realty Income International$5.3 million
Mark E. HaganExecutive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer$5.3 million
Michelle BushoreExecutive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel and Secretary$3.9 million
Jonathan PongExecutive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer$3.7 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

The right benchmark for O

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For O that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other real estate stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
WELLWelltower Inc.+228.9%23.6%
PLDPrologis, Inc.+2.3%26.9%
EQIXEquinix, Inc.+33.8%27.8%
AMTAmerican Tower Corporation−21.7%27.3%
SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.+93.8%26.5%
DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc.+35.7%29.3%
PSAPublic Storage+22.2%23.8%
VTRVentas, Inc.+87.4%24.8%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check O with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average O price target is 17.8% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on O say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering O are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. O returned +60.8% (+4.9% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, O (Realty Income Corporation) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

O fell −50.7% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

O fell −48.4% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

O fell −23.5% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, O’s Sharpe ratio was −0.01 and its Sortino ratio −0.02, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

O’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 18.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.65.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with O over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.11), DELL (−0.09), NET (−0.07). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.62 and with gold (GLD) 0.39.

O beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 1 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. The stock moved 1.2% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

Sumit Roy, O’s President, Chief Executive Officer, received $16.3 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.0 million salary and $9.1 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 25, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 35 trades in O (20 buys and 15 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.49% of O’s float was sold short (42.4 million shares, 4.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 4.10%.

Yes. O’s diluted share count rose 161.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 3.2% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.5% of revenue.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on O now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on O are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.