How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
StocksInsight
NTRA Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Natera, Inc., healthcare (market value $56.0 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+6 new ratings26 analysts covering (was 25)17 4★+ analysts covering (was 16)
Key takeaways
- NTRA returned +261.6% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.67 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −69.2% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 57.5% and beta 1.54.
- 26 analysts rated it in the past year; 92% of their latest calls were Buy.
- NTRA beat earnings estimates in 8 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 9.1% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on NTRA say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did NTRA beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about NTRA
- NTRA returns by year vs the S&P 500
- NTRA risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How NTRA behaved in past crashes
- What moves with NTRA, and what doesn’t
- Latest NTRA upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get NTRA right?
- How NTRA moves after earnings
- Where NTRA’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded NTRA
- Are NTRA insiders buying or selling?
- How much of NTRA is sold short?
- How many institutions own NTRA?
- Is NTRA diluting shareholders?
- NTRA financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold NTRA?
- The right benchmark for NTRA
- Other healthcare stocks
- Data and methodology
Did NTRA beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Natera, Inc. (NTRA) returned +261.6% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 185.7 percentage points, or +29.3% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | NTRA | S&P 500 | NTRA per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +108.3% | +12.0% | +108.3% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +949.7% | +87.4% | +119.0% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +261.6% | +75.9% | +29.3% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +4,786% | +316.3% | +47.5% | +15.3% | Beat |
- 1 year
- NTRA
- +108.3%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- NTRA per year
- +108.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- NTRA
- +949.7%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- NTRA per year
- +119.0%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- NTRA
- +261.6%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- NTRA per year
- +29.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- NTRA
- +4,786%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- NTRA per year
- +47.5%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about NTRA
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 26 analysts published 222 ratings on NTRA. Their latest calls were 92% Buy, 8% Hold and 0% Sell. 17 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $393.16 (range $245.00–$500.00), +26.0% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 63.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 55.7% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 68.5% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 76.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 59.3% |
Other analysts covering NTRA: David Westenberg · Dan Leonard · Kyle Mikson CFA · Eve Burstein · Kallum Titchmarsh · Tycho Peterson
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on NTRA are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
NTRA returns by year vs the S&P 500
NTRA beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | NTRA | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +80.8% | +11.7% | +69.1% |
| 2025 | +44.7% | +17.7% | +27.0% |
| 2024 | +152.7% | +24.9% | +127.8% |
| 2023 | +55.9% | +26.2% | +29.7% |
| 2022 | −57.0% | −18.2% | −38.8% |
| 2021 | −6.2% | +28.7% | −34.9% |
| 2020 | +195.4% | +18.3% | +177.1% |
| 2019 | +141.3% | +31.2% | +110.1% |
| 2018 | +55.3% | −4.6% | +59.9% |
| 2017 | −23.2% | +21.7% | −44.9% |
NTRA risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, NTRA had a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 55.5% and its beta 1.54: it tended to move about 1.5× as much as the market.
| Metric | NTRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +29.3% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 55.5% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.19 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −69.3% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.54 | 1.00 |
How NTRA behaved in past crashes
NTRA’s deepest fall in the crises below was −69.2% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | NTRA | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −51.1% | −20.2% | −$51,110 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −57.0% | −34.1% | −$57,010 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −69.2% | −25.4% | −$69,200 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −23.4% | −19.0% | −$23,390 |
| Window | NTRA max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −28.2% |
| Last 3 years | −39.9% |
| Last 5 years | −77.7% |
| Last 10 years | −77.7% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with NTRA, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, NTRA’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.43, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.42, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.32 and with gold (GLD) −0.07.
Adding a 5% NTRA position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.1%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| COP | −0.15 | ECL | 0.50 |
| NEM | −0.12 | PH | 0.50 |
| SO | −0.11 | DHR | 0.47 |
| VRTX | −0.10 | APH | 0.47 |
| ABBV | −0.09 | DIS | 0.46 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest NTRA upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | Casey Woodring |
| Oct 19 | Target raised Buy | Kyle Mikson CFA |
| Oct 14 | Target raised Buy | Casey Woodring |
| Oct 12 | Target raised Buy | Kallum Titchmarsh |
| Oct 7 | Target raised Buy | Luke Sergott |
| Oct 6 | Target raised Buy | Patrick B Donnelly |
| Sep 24 | Target raised Buy | Dan Leonard |
| Sep 20 | Target raised Hold | Evie Koslosky |
| Sep 9 | Target raised Buy | Eve Burstein |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on NTRA in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get NTRA right?
Of the 305 analyst price targets on NTRA set from 2019 until a year ago, 72.8% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 4.2 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 94 days. The median target sat 31.7% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said NTRA would be by now: a year ago, 11 analysts had a price target on NTRA, and the median of their latest targets was $239.00. On Oct 20, 2026 NTRA closed at $405.92, 69.8% above it.
72.8%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
94 daysmedian time to reach a target
+69.8%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of NTRA | 4 | +5.7% | +25.1% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on NTRA through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How NTRA moves after earnings
NTRA beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 8 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 9.1% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 8 beats the stock still fell.
8/12earnings beats
±9.1%average move per report
7/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | −$0.47 vs −$0.49 | +13.8% | +17.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | −$0.56 vs −$0.54 | +12.9% | −9.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.35 vs −$0.51 | +10.2% | −1.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.64 vs −$0.39 | +15.3% | −0.2% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | −$0.74 vs −$0.62 | +14.8% | +10.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | −$0.50 vs −$0.64 | +12.5% | −5.1% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | −$0.41 vs −$0.38 | +9.3% | −3.1% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | −$0.26 vs −$0.57 | +21.7% | +20.2% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where NTRA’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), NTRA’s largest reported region was the United States, with 98.2% of its $2.3 billion revenue. By region: United States 98.2%; Europe, Middle East, India, and Africa 1.1%; Americas, excluding U.S. 0.4%; Asia Pacific and Other 0.3%.
By business, the largest segment was Product, with 99.6% of $2.3 billion revenue (+36.2% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $2.3 billion | 99.6% | +36.2% |
| Licensing and other | $10.3 million | 0.4% | −13.0% |
From NTRA’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded NTRA
As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 7 trades in NTRA (4 buys and 3 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Sep 22, 2025.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2025 | Josh Gottheimer | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Josh Gottheimer | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Josh Gottheimer | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 10, 2023 | Daniel Goldman | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 6, 2023 | Daniel Goldman | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 20, 2021 | William Hagerty | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are NTRA insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, NTRA insiders made no open‑market purchases and 402 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on May 12, 2022.
After the 7 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, NTRA lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 6.7 percentage points over the next 12 months; 29% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2022 | Rabinowitz Matthew | — | $562,055 |
| Mar 16, 2022 | Botha Roelof | Director | $1.4 million |
| Jul 22, 2021 | Healy James | Director | $271,200 |
| Jun 19, 2016 | Steuart John | Director | $795,455 |
| Jun 19, 2016 | Botha Roelof | Director, 10 percent owner | $8.0 million |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of NTRA is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.71% of NTRA’s float was sold short: 6.4 million shares, or 3.2 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.86%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so NTRA is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own NTRA?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 886 institutions reported holding NTRA in 13F filings, up 94 from the quarter before and up from 677 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 96.3% of NTRA’s shares. In the quarter 519 institutions added to their positions and 242 cut them.
88613F holders
161new positions
76positions closed
96.3%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is NTRA diluting shareholders?
NTRA’s diluted share count rose 68.8% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 9.6% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $354.4 million in fiscal 2025, 15.4% of revenue. NTRA did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+9.6%share count, 1 year
+68.8%share count, 5 years
15.4%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from NTRA’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
NTRA financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, NTRA’s Altman Z‑score was 40.99, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 3 out of 9; 94% of scored stocks reach 3 or more.
40.99Altman Z‑score: safe zone
3/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold NTRA?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 28 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held NTRA. Its largest weight is in ARKG (ARK Genomic Revolution ETF), at 4.90% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of NTRA |
|---|---|---|
| ARKG | ARK Genomic Revolution ETF | 4.90% |
| FXH | First Trust Health Care AlphaDEX Fund | 2.27% |
| XBI | State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 1.85% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 1.62% |
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 1.62% |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | 1.14% |
| VHT | Vanguard Health Care Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.79% |
| VXF | Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.72% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for NTRA
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For NTRA that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other healthcare stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | +482.3% | 32.6% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | +92.9% | 16.8% |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | +207.1% | 23.5% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | −3.3% | 32.7% |
| MRK | Merck & Co., Inc. | +97.8% | 23.6% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | +11.7% | 27.0% |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | +163.1% | 24.9% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | +214.3% | 24.8% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check NTRA with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average NTRA price target is 26.0% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on NTRA say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering NTRA are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. NTRA returned +4,786% (+47.5% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, NTRA (Natera, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, NTRA (Natera, Inc.) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
NTRA fell −57.0% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
NTRA fell −69.2% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, NTRA’s Sharpe ratio was 0.67 and its Sortino ratio 1.19, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
NTRA’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 57.5%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.54.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with NTRA over the last 60 months were COP (−0.15), NEM (−0.12), SO (−0.11). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.32 and with gold (GLD) −0.07.
NTRA beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 8 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. The stock moved 9.1% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 7 trades in NTRA (4 buys and 3 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.71% of NTRA’s float was sold short (6.4 million shares, 3.2 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.86%.
Yes. NTRA’s diluted share count rose 68.8% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 9.6% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 15.4% of revenue.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on NTRA now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on NTRA are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.