Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
How often Kyle Mikson CFA’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 1,134 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Kyle Mikson CFA of Canaccord Genuity ranks #554 of the 1,121 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.8★ rating and a focus on healthcare. Over a 7‑year lookback, 52.3% of Kyle’s price targets were reached, 1.3 points below the 53.6% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Kyle Mikson CFA | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 52.3% | 53.6% |
| Median days to hit target | 76 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 39.8% | 64.6% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | −15.1% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 68.5% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −34.0% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 1,134 | — |
| Stocks covered | 28 | — |
The full records of Exent’s top 90 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.
| Time to reach the target | Kyle Mikson CFA |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 30.9% |
| 30–90 days | 25.6% |
| 90–180 days | 24.5% |
| Over 180 days | 19.0% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
| Stock | Ratings in the sample |
|---|---|
| ILMN | 34 |
| GH | 31 |
| TXG | 28 |
| QTRX | 25 |
| WGS | 24 |
| NTRA | 23 |
| VCYT | 23 |
| GRAL | 22 |
In the past year Kyle’s ratings were 68% Buy, 32% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | ||||
| Oct 12, 2026 | TWST | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $205.00 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | TEM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $95.00 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | TXG | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $100.00 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | TXG | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $100.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | GRAL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $150.00 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | GRAL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $80.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | GRAL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $80.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | ILMN | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $0.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | PACB | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $0.00 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | BLLN | Initiated Coverage: Buy | Buy | $120.00 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | CDNA | Initiated Coverage: Buy | Buy | $65.00 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | TEM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $80.00 |
Kyle published 1 rating in the last 3 days, the latest on Oct 19, 2026. Kyle’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Oct 20, 2026; ranking updated Oct 21, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Kyle Mikson CFA ranks #554 of 1,121 with a 4.8★ rating. 52.3% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 53.6%), and 39.8% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Kyle Mikson CFA’s success rate is 47.2% by the ranking source and 52.3% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 76 days to reach a target.
Kyle Mikson CFA (Canaccord Genuity) covers 28 stocks, mostly in healthcare. The most frequently rated are ILMN, GH, TXG, QTRX, WGS.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.