How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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MTSI Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., technology (market value $18.0 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
87% Buy ratings (was 86%)
Key takeaways
- MTSI returned +235.7% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.68 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −48.1% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020) (S&P 500: −34.1%).
- Five‑year volatility was 43.0% and beta 1.82.
- 15 analysts rated it in the past year; 87% of their latest calls were Buy.
- MTSI beat earnings estimates in 10 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 9.5% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on MTSI say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did MTSI beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about MTSI
- MTSI returns by year vs the S&P 500
- MTSI risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How MTSI behaved in past crashes
- What moves with MTSI, and what doesn’t
- Latest MTSI upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get MTSI right?
- How MTSI moves after earnings
- Where MTSI’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded MTSI
- Are MTSI insiders buying or selling?
- How much of MTSI is sold short?
- How many institutions own MTSI?
- Is MTSI diluting shareholders?
- MTSI financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold MTSI?
- The right benchmark for MTSI
- Other technology stocks
- Data and methodology
Did MTSI beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) returned +235.7% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 159.8 percentage points, or +27.4% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | MTSI | S&P 500 | MTSI per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +58.2% | +12.0% | +58.2% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +232.3% | +87.4% | +49.2% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +235.7% | +75.9% | +27.4% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +537.6% | +316.3% | +20.4% | +15.3% | Beat |
- 1 year
- MTSI
- +58.2%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- MTSI per year
- +58.2%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- MTSI
- +232.3%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- MTSI per year
- +49.2%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- MTSI
- +235.7%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- MTSI per year
- +27.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- MTSI
- +537.6%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- MTSI per year
- +20.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about MTSI
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 15 analysts published 107 ratings on MTSI. Their latest calls were 87% Buy, 13% Hold and 0% Sell. 14 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $361.25 (range $220.00–$475.00), +59.5% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 67.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 60.0% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 63.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 67.8% |
| Mark Lipacis | Evercore ISI | 5.0★ | 57.4% |
Other analysts covering MTSI: Peter Peng · Tore Svanberg · Sean O'Loughlin · Thomas O'Malley · Melissa Fairbanks
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on MTSI are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
MTSI returns by year vs the S&P 500
MTSI beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | MTSI | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +36.8% | +11.7% | +25.1% |
| 2025 | +31.8% | +17.7% | +14.1% |
| 2024 | +39.8% | +24.9% | +14.9% |
| 2023 | +47.6% | +26.2% | +21.4% |
| 2022 | −19.6% | −18.2% | −1.4% |
| 2021 | +42.3% | +28.7% | +13.6% |
| 2020 | +106.9% | +18.3% | +88.6% |
| 2019 | +83.3% | +31.2% | +52.1% |
| 2018 | −55.4% | −4.6% | −50.8% |
| 2017 | −29.7% | +21.7% | −51.4% |
MTSI risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, MTSI had a Sharpe ratio of 0.68 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 45.5% and its beta 1.82: it tended to move about 1.8× as much as the market.
| Metric | MTSI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +27.4% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 45.5% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −41.1% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.82 | 1.00 |
How MTSI behaved in past crashes
MTSI’s deepest fall in the crises below was −48.1% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | MTSI | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −40.0% | −20.2% | −$39,980 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −48.1% | −34.1% | −$48,070 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −44.7% | −25.4% | −$44,730 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −29.3% | −19.0% | −$29,330 |
| Window | MTSI max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −19.7% |
| Last 3 years | −41.1% |
| Last 5 years | −44.9% |
| Last 10 years | −80.8% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with MTSI, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, MTSI’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.62, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.69, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.30 and with gold (GLD) 0.11.
Adding a 5% MTSI position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.2%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME | −0.16 | LRCX | 0.69 |
| COP | −0.14 | APH | 0.68 |
| LMT | −0.12 | MU | 0.65 |
| REGN | −0.12 | AMAT | 0.65 |
| RTX | −0.12 | CAT | 0.64 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest MTSI upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | Sean O'Loughlin |
| Oct 27 | Upgrade Buy | Melissa Fairbanks |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on MTSI in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get MTSI right?
Of the 248 analyst price targets on MTSI set from 2019 until a year ago, 89.9% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 21.3 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 83 days. The median target sat 17.6% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said MTSI would be by now: a year ago, 9 analysts had a price target on MTSI, and the median of their latest targets was $190.00. On Oct 20, 2026 MTSI closed at $262.93, 38.4% above it.
89.9%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
83 daysmedian time to reach a target
+38.4%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of MTSI | 15 | +3.8% | +13.7% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of MTSI | 7 | −6.4% | +1.1% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on MTSI through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How MTSI moves after earnings
MTSI beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 10 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 9.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 8 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 10 beats the stock still fell.
10/12earnings beats
±9.5%average move per report
8/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $1.40 vs $1.35 | +1.8% | +18.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | $1.09 vs $1.07 | +1.3% | +16.2% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $1.02 vs $0.99 | +1.0% | +9.7% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.94 vs $0.93 | +0.4% | +13.6% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.90 vs $0.89 | −3.1% | −13.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.85 vs $0.84 | +2.5% | +4.2% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.79 vs $0.78 | +1.5% | −6.3% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.73 vs $0.73 | +0.1% | +13.1% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where MTSI’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2024 (the year to Sep 27, 2024), 24.4% of MTSI’s $729.6 million revenue came from China, up from 20.0% in fiscal 2023. By region: United States 44.9%; China 24.4%; Other Countries 18.5%; Asia Pacific 12.2%.
From MTSI’s annual filings. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded MTSI
As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 16 trades in MTSI (5 buys and 11 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Jul 16, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 22, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Rob Bresnahan | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 21, 2024 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 23, 2023 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
2 trades in MTSI disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.
Are MTSI insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, MTSI insiders made no open‑market purchases and 191 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on May 22, 2019.
After the 11 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, MTSI lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 5.3 percentage points over the next 12 months; 18% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2019 | Ocampo John L | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman | $534,000 |
| May 20, 2019 | Ocampo John L | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman | $795,600 |
| Aug 3, 2018 | Ocampo John L | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman | $499,271 |
| May 24, 2018 | Ocampo John L | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman | $330,000 |
| May 23, 2018 | Ocampo John L | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman | $7,696 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of MTSI is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.79% of MTSI’s float was sold short: 3.4 million shares, or 2.6 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 4.48%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so MTSI is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own MTSI?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 685 institutions reported holding MTSI in 13F filings, up 156 from the quarter before and up from 433 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 96.7% of MTSI’s shares. In the quarter 399 institutions added to their positions and 193 cut them.
68513F holders
189new positions
45positions closed
96.7%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is MTSI diluting shareholders?
MTSI’s diluted share count rose 11.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 0.6% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $86.1 million in fiscal 2025, 8.9% of revenue. MTSI spent $43.1 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 0.21% of its market value; stock pay equaled 199.7% of the buybacks.
+0.6%share count, 1 year
+11.1%share count, 5 years
8.9%stock pay as % of revenue
0.21%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from MTSI’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
MTSI financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, MTSI’s Altman Z‑score was 21.44, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 6 out of 9; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more.
21.44Altman Z‑score: safe zone
6/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold MTSI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 35 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held MTSI. Its largest weight is in PSI (Invesco Semiconductors ETF), at 2.89% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of MTSI |
|---|---|---|
| PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | 2.89% |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 1.06% |
| SOXQ | Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF | 0.94% |
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | 0.93% |
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.59% |
| IJH | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.55% |
| SPMD | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.55% |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.54% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for MTSI
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For MTSI that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other technology stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +135.9% | 28.0% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +704.3% | 51.1% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +64.0% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +570.0% | 44.7% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,211% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +319.9% | 58.3% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +611.4% | 64.4% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | +45.7% | 40.4% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check MTSI with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average MTSI price target is 59.5% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on MTSI say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering MTSI are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. MTSI returned +537.6% (+20.4% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
MTSI fell −48.1% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
MTSI fell −44.7% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, MTSI’s Sharpe ratio was 0.68 and its Sortino ratio 1.12, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
MTSI’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 43.0%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.82.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with MTSI over the last 60 months were CME (−0.16), COP (−0.14), LMT (−0.12). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.30 and with gold (GLD) 0.11.
MTSI beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 10 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. The stock moved 9.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
In fiscal 2024 (the year to Sep 27, 2024), 24.4% of MTSI’s $729.6 million revenue came from China, about $178.0 million, up from 20.0% in fiscal 2023. Regions are as MTSI reports them in its annual filings.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 16 trades in MTSI (5 buys and 11 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.79% of MTSI’s float was sold short (3.4 million shares, 2.6 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 4.48%.
Yes. MTSI’s diluted share count rose 11.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 0.6% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 8.9% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $43.1 million.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on MTSI now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on MTSI are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.