How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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ET Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Energy Transfer LP, energy (market value $69.7 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 12
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
13 4★+ analysts covering (was 12)
Key takeaways
- ET returned +201.4% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.92 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −64.0% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020) (S&P 500: −34.1%).
- Five‑year volatility was 23.7% and beta 0.60.
- 17 analysts rated it in the past year; 88% of their latest calls were Buy.
- ET beat earnings estimates in 5 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 1.9% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on ET say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did ET beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about ET
- ET returns by year vs the S&P 500
- ET risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How ET behaved in past crashes
- What moves with ET, and what doesn’t
- Latest ET upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get ET right?
- How ET moves after earnings
- Where ET’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded ET
- Are ET insiders buying or selling?
- How much of ET is sold short?
- How many institutions own ET?
- Is ET diluting shareholders?
- ET financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold ET?
- The right benchmark for ET
- Other energy stocks
- Data and methodology
Did ET beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Energy Transfer LP (ET) returned +201.4% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 111.4 percentage points, or +24.7% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | ET | S&P 500 | ET per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +21.8% | +15.7% | +21.8% | +15.7% | Beat |
| 3 years | +74.3% | +85.0% | +20.4% | +22.8% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +201.4% | +90.0% | +24.7% | +13.7% | Beat |
| 10 years | +165.0% | +312.9% | +10.2% | +15.2% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- ET
- +21.8%
- S&P 500
- +15.7%
- ET per year
- +21.8%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.7%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- ET
- +74.3%
- S&P 500
- +85.0%
- ET per year
- +20.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +22.8%
- Result
- Lagged
- 5 years
- ET
- +201.4%
- S&P 500
- +90.0%
- ET per year
- +24.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +13.7%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- ET
- +165.0%
- S&P 500
- +312.9%
- ET per year
- +10.2%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.2%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about ET
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 17 analysts published 188 ratings on ET. Their latest calls were 88% Buy, 12% Hold and 0% Sell. 13 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $22.07 (range $18.50–$25.00), +9.0% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 43.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 72.1% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 45.9% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 47.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 57.9% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ET are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.6% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
ET returns by year vs the S&P 500
ET beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | ET | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +24.3% | +12.7% | +11.6% |
| 2025 | −9.4% | +17.7% | −27.1% |
| 2024 | +53.8% | +24.9% | +28.9% |
| 2023 | +27.9% | +26.2% | +1.7% |
| 2022 | +55.8% | −18.2% | +74.0% |
| 2021 | +43.3% | +28.7% | +14.6% |
| 2020 | −44.8% | +18.3% | −63.1% |
| 2019 | +5.8% | +31.2% | −25.4% |
| 2018 | −17.9% | −4.6% | −13.3% |
| 2017 | −4.7% | +21.7% | −26.4% |
ET risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, ET had a Sharpe ratio of 0.92 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 22.8% and its beta 0.60: it tended to move about 0.6× as much as the market.
| Metric | ET | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +24.7% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 22.8% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.79 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −18.0% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How ET behaved in past crashes
ET’s deepest fall in the crises below was −64.0% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | ET | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −63.5% | −56.5% | −$63,520 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −34.8% | −20.2% | −$34,770 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −64.0% | −34.1% | −$64,040 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −22.5% | −25.4% | −$22,500 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −22.2% | −19.0% | −$22,220 |
| Window | ET max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −9.0% |
| Last 3 years | −24.6% |
| Last 5 years | −24.6% |
| Last 10 years | −77.2% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with ET, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, ET’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.41, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.24, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.04 and with gold (GLD) −0.01.
Adding a 5% ET position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.4%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | −0.13 | EOG | 0.65 |
| ABBV | −0.12 | CVX | 0.65 |
| PFE | −0.12 | WMB | 0.64 |
| MNST | −0.05 | COP | 0.64 |
| AMD | −0.03 | XOM | 0.63 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest ET upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 | New coverage Buy | Robert Hodges |
| Aug 19 | Target raised Hold | Robert Kad |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ET in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get ET right?
Of the 220 analyst price targets on ET set from 2019 until a year ago, 36.8% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 31.8 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 175 days. The median target sat 31.0% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said ET would be by now: a year ago, 6 analysts had a price target on ET, and the median of their latest targets was $21.50. On Oct 19, 2026 ET closed at $20.12, 6.4% below it.
36.8%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
175 daysmedian time to reach a target
−6.4%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of ET | 7 | +0.4% | +4.2% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of ET | 5 | −2.4% | +3.0% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on ET through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How ET moves after earnings
ET beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 5 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 4 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 1.9% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 9 of the 12 reports. It never fell after beating the estimate. The next report is expected on Nov 3, 2026.
5/12earnings beats
±1.9%average move per report
Nov 3, 2026next report (expected)
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.59 vs $0.38 | +23.9% | +0.3% |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.35 vs $0.40 | +8.6% | −1.0% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | $0.25 vs $0.37 | +5.4% | +0.6% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.28 vs $0.33 | −9.0% | +1.9% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.32 vs $0.33 | −14.6% | −0.6% |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.36 vs $0.36 | −2.4% | +4.3% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $0.29 vs $0.35 | −8.7% | −2.2% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $0.32 vs $0.34 | −3.8% | +3.0% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where ET’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2012 (the year to Dec 31, 2012), ET’s largest reported region was the United States, with 81.8% of its $292.3 million revenue. By region: United States 81.8%; International Countries 18.2%.
By business, the largest segment was Oil and Gas, with 30.7% of $82.7 billion revenue (+8.0% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil and Gas | $25.4 billion | 30.7% | +8.0% |
| Oil and Gas, Refining and Marketing | $22.1 billion | 26.7% | −5.7% |
| NGL sales | $19.1 billion | 23.1% | +19.7% |
| Natural Gas, Midstream | $12.0 billion | 14.5% | +5.2% |
| Natural gas sales | $2.7 billion | 3.3% | −16.0% |
| Product and Service, Other | $1.4 billion | 1.7% | +30.3% |
From ET’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2024 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded ET
As of Oct 20, 2026, 14 members of Congress had disclosed 113 trades in ET (68 buys and 44 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated May 5, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Brian Babin | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | Virginia Foxx | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Ashley Moody | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Virginia Foxx | Sale | $50,001–$100,000 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Virginia Foxx | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Virginia Foxx | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | Virginia Foxx | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Virginia Foxx | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 20, 2024 | Virginia Foxx | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 2, 2024 | Virginia Foxx | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are ET insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, ET insiders made 5 open‑market purchases worth $55.3 million by 2 insiders and no sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
After the 115 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, ET beat the S&P 500 by an average of 5.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; 62% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Warren Kelcy L | Director | $13.8 million |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Warren Kelcy L | Director | $7.5 million |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Perry James Richard | Director | $250,000 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Warren Kelcy L | Director | $16.8 million |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Warren Kelcy L | Director | $16.9 million |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of ET is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 0.91% of ET’s float was sold short: 26.9 million shares, or 2.8 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 1.02%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so ET is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own ET?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,326 institutions reported holding ET in 13F filings, up 3 from the quarter before and up from 1,278 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 32.1% of ET’s shares. In the quarter 643 institutions added to their positions and 351 cut them.
1,32613F holders
95new positions
92positions closed
32.1%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is ET diluting shareholders?
ET’s diluted share count rose 35.4% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 6.7% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $148.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.2% of revenue. ET did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+6.7%share count, 1 year
+35.4%share count, 5 years
0.2%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from ET’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
ET financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, ET’s Altman Z‑score was 1.39, in the distress zone (where 180 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.
1.39Altman Z‑score: distress zone
7/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold ET?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 4 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held ET. Its largest weight is in MLPA (Global X MLP ETF), at 15.50% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of ET |
|---|---|---|
| MLPA | Global X MLP ETF | 15.50% |
| AMZA | InfraCap MLP ETF | 15.24% |
| AMLP | Alerian MLP ETF | 12.00% |
| MLPX | Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | 4.46% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for ET
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ET that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other energy stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | +227.5% | 26.7% |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | +143.8% | 25.2% |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | +119.1% | 32.6% |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | +615.2% | 33.1% |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | +541.3% | 37.0% |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | +334.9% | 33.3% |
| WMB | The Williams Companies, Inc. | +221.7% | 23.6% |
| EOG | EOG Resources, Inc. | +115.4% | 32.3% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check ET with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average ET price target is 9.0% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on ET say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering ET are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. ET returned +165.0% (+10.2% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, ET (Energy Transfer LP) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
ET fell −63.5% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
ET fell −64.0% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
ET fell −22.5% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, ET’s Sharpe ratio was 0.92 and its Sortino ratio 1.79, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
ET’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 23.7%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.60.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ET over the last 60 months were LLY (−0.13), ABBV (−0.12), PFE (−0.12). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.04 and with gold (GLD) −0.01.
ET beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 5 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 4 of 12. The stock moved 1.9% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 3, 2026.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 14 members of Congress had disclosed 113 trades in ET (68 buys and 44 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 0.91% of ET’s float was sold short (26.9 million shares, 2.8 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 1.02%.
Yes. ET’s diluted share count rose 35.4% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 6.7% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.2% of revenue.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on ET now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on ET are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.