How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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WBD Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc., communication services (market value $77.6 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 12
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
15% Buy ratings (was 20%)
Key takeaways
- WBD returned +21.9% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.25 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −64.6% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 52.4% and beta 1.53.
- 21 analysts rated it in the past year; 15% of their latest calls were Buy.
- WBD beat earnings estimates in 4 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 7.1% on average, up or down, around each report.
In this article
- Did WBD beat the S&P 500?
- WBD returns by year vs the S&P 500
- WBD risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How WBD behaved in past crashes
- What moves with WBD, and what doesn’t
- What Wall Street analysts say about WBD
- Latest WBD upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get WBD right?
- How WBD moves after earnings
- Where WBD’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded WBD
- Are WBD insiders buying or selling?
- How much of WBD is sold short?
- How many institutions own WBD?
- Is WBD diluting shareholders?
- WBD financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold WBD?
- The right benchmark for WBD
- Other communication services stocks
- Data and methodology
Did WBD beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) returned +21.9% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 68.1 percentage points, or +4.0% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | WBD | S&P 500 | WBD per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +58.5% | +15.7% | +58.5% | +15.7% | Beat |
| 3 years | +185.0% | +85.0% | +41.8% | +22.8% | Beat |
| 5 years | +21.9% | +90.0% | +4.0% | +13.7% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +15.0% | +312.9% | +1.4% | +15.2% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- WBD
- +58.5%
- S&P 500
- +15.7%
- WBD per year
- +58.5%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.7%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- WBD
- +185.0%
- S&P 500
- +85.0%
- WBD per year
- +41.8%
- S&P 500 per year
- +22.8%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- WBD
- +21.9%
- S&P 500
- +90.0%
- WBD per year
- +4.0%
- S&P 500 per year
- +13.7%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- WBD
- +15.0%
- S&P 500
- +312.9%
- WBD per year
- +1.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.2%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
WBD returns by year vs the S&P 500
WBD beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | WBD | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +7.4% | +12.7% | −5.3% |
| 2025 | +172.7% | +17.7% | +155.0% |
| 2024 | −7.1% | +24.9% | −32.0% |
| 2023 | +20.0% | +26.2% | −6.2% |
| 2022 | −59.7% | −18.2% | −41.5% |
| 2021 | −21.8% | +28.7% | −50.5% |
| 2020 | −8.1% | +18.3% | −26.4% |
| 2019 | +32.3% | +31.2% | +1.1% |
| 2018 | +10.5% | −4.6% | +15.1% |
| 2017 | −18.4% | +21.7% | −40.1% |
WBD risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, WBD had a Sharpe ratio of 0.25 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 56.9% and its beta 1.53: it tended to move about 1.5× as much as the market.
| Metric | WBD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.0% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 56.9% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.47 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −73.8% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.53 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How WBD behaved in past crashes
WBD’s deepest fall in the crises below was −64.6% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | WBD | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −64.6% | −56.5% | −$64,590 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −27.6% | −20.2% | −$27,600 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −39.3% | −34.1% | −$39,340 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −63.7% | −25.4% | −$63,690 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −32.9% | −19.0% | −$32,900 |
| Window | WBD max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −21.3% |
| Last 3 years | −53.6% |
| Last 5 years | −79.1% |
| Last 10 years | −91.3% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with WBD, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, WBD’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.38, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.41 and with gold (GLD) 0.17.
Adding a 5% WBD position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 16.3%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | −0.19 | C | 0.51 |
| WM | −0.13 | DIS | 0.48 |
| PG | −0.09 | BX | 0.47 |
| MRK | −0.08 | MS | 0.47 |
| KO | −0.07 | COF | 0.45 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What Wall Street analysts say about WBD
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 21 analysts published 172 ratings on WBD. Their latest calls were 15% Buy, 80% Hold and 5% Sell. 8 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $29.60 (range $26.00–$31.25), −4.4% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Bonner | Argus Research | 4.8★ | 46.1% |
| 4.8★ | 49.9% | ||
| 4.8★ | 62.1% | ||
| 4.7★ | 32.2% | ||
| 4.7★ | 45.9% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on WBD are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
Latest WBD upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | Downgrade Buy → Sell | Joseph Bonner |
| Sep 22 | Target raised Hold | Sean Diffley |
| Sep 17 | New coverage Hold | Kannan Venkateshwar |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on WBD in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get WBD right?
Of the 247 analyst price targets on WBD set from 2019 until a year ago, 60.7% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 7.9 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 72 days. The median target sat 28.1% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said WBD would be by now: a year ago, 10 analysts had a price target on WBD, and the median of their latest targets was $24.50. On Oct 5, 2026 WBD closed at $30.95, 26.3% above it.
60.7%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
72 daysmedian time to reach a target
+26.3%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of WBD | 17 | +2.3% | −7.0% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of WBD | 19 | −1.1% | −5.4% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on WBD through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How WBD moves after earnings
WBD beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 4 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 3 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 7.1% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 5 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 4 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.
4/12earnings beats
±7.1%average move per report
Nov 5, 2026next report (expected)
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.06 vs −$0.14 | −5.8% | +3.1% |
| May 6, 2026 | −$1.17 vs −$0.11 | +0.0% | −0.4% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | −$0.10 vs −$0.03 | +1.2% | −2.5% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.06 vs −$0.07 | −1.4% | −0.4% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.63 vs −$0.24 | +0.4% | −14.7% |
| May 8, 2025 | −$0.18 vs −$0.17 | −6.4% | +6.0% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | −$0.20 vs −$0.03 | −1.5% | +9.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.05 vs −$0.09 | −1.7% | +9.5% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where WBD’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2024 (the year to Dec 31, 2024), WBD’s largest reported region was the United States, with 67.2% of its $39.3 billion revenue. By region: United States 67.2%; Non-US 32.8%.
By business, the largest segment was Distribution Revenue, with 50.1% of $39.3 billion revenue (−2.6% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution Revenue | $19.7 billion | 50.1% | −2.6% |
| Content Licensing Contracts | $10.3 billion | 26.2% | −8.1% |
| Advertising | $8.1 billion | 20.6% | −7.0% |
| Service, Other | $1.2 billion | 3.1% | +4.4% |
From WBD’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2024 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded WBD
As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 78 trades in WBD (30 buys and 45 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Mar 27, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | August Pfluger | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Julia Letlow | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Julia Letlow | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 12, 2025 | Jefferson Shreve | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | August Pfluger | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
One trade in WBD disclosed in the last 30 days is in Exent Radar.
Are WBD insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, WBD insiders made no open‑market purchases and 34 sales worth $373.7 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Aug 12, 2025.
After the 46 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, WBD beat the S&P 500 by an average of 1.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; 33% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2025 | Levy Anton J | Director | $825,000 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Levy Anton J | Director | $2.7 million |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Di Piazza Samuel A Jr. | Director | $197,918 |
| Nov 11, 2024 | Zeiler Gerhard | President, International | $535,920 |
| May 13, 2024 | Zeiler Gerhard | President, International | $830,000 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of WBD is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.43% of WBD’s float was sold short: 57.8 million shares, or 1.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 3.21%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so WBD is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own WBD?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,433 institutions reported holding WBD in 13F filings, up 23 from the quarter before and up from 1,236 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 79.1% of WBD’s shares. In the quarter 617 institutions added to their positions and 462 cut them.
1,43313F holders
123new positions
112positions closed
79.1%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is WBD diluting shareholders?
WBD’s diluted share count rose 273.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 3.3% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
WBD did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+3.3%share count, 1 year
+273.7%share count, 5 years
0.0%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from WBD’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
WBD financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, WBD’s Altman Z‑score was 0.81, in the distress zone (where 180 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 4 out of 9; 88% of scored stocks reach 4 or more.
0.81Altman Z‑score: distress zone
4/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold WBD?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 9 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held WBD. Its largest weight is in VOE (Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund), at 1.26% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of WBD |
|---|---|---|
| VOE | Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund | 1.26% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.73% |
| VTV | Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.28% |
| VONV | Vanguard Russell 1000 Value Index Fund | 0.20% |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 0.12% |
| VV | Vanguard Large Cap Index Fund | 0.11% |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.10% |
| VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund | 0.06% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for WBD
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For WBD that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other communication services stocks
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what WBD does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, WBD included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with WBD and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
No. WBD returned +15.0% (+1.4% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
WBD fell −64.6% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
WBD fell −39.3% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
WBD fell −63.7% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, WBD’s Sharpe ratio was 0.25 and its Sortino ratio 0.47, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
WBD’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 52.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.53.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with WBD over the last 60 months were LLY (−0.19), WM (−0.13), PG (−0.09). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.41 and with gold (GLD) 0.17.
WBD beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 4 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 3 of 12. The stock moved 7.1% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 78 trades in WBD (30 buys and 45 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.43% of WBD’s float was sold short (57.8 million shares, 1.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 3.21%.
Yes. WBD’s diluted share count rose 273.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 3.3% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.0% of revenue.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.