How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
StocksInsight
SITM Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
SiTime Corporation, technology (market value $13.3 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
Key takeaways
- SITM returned +68.8% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.43 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −73.4% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 76.3% and beta 2.88.
- 11 analysts rated it in the past year; 91% of their latest calls were Buy.
- SITM beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 17.0% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on SITM say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did SITM beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about SITM
- SITM returns by year vs the S&P 500
- SITM risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How SITM behaved in past crashes
- What moves with SITM, and what doesn’t
- Latest SITM upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get SITM right?
- How SITM moves after earnings
- Where SITM’s revenue comes from
- Are SITM insiders buying or selling?
- How much of SITM is sold short?
- How many institutions own SITM?
- Is SITM diluting shareholders?
- SITM financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold SITM?
- The right benchmark for SITM
- Other technology stocks
- Data and methodology
Did SITM beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, SiTime Corporation (SITM) returned +68.8% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 7.1 percentage points, or +11.0% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | SITM | S&P 500 | SITM per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +54.4% | +12.0% | +54.4% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +348.0% | +87.4% | +64.8% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +68.8% | +75.9% | +11.0% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| SITM | +54.4% | +348.0% | +68.8% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| SITM per year | +54.4% | +64.8% | +11.0% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Beat | Beat | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about SITM
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 11 analysts published 70 ratings on SITM. Their latest calls were 91% Buy, 9% Hold and 0% Sell. 10 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 63.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 70.6% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 67.8% |
| Thomas O'Malley | Barclays | 5.0★ | 74.0% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 66.3% |
Other analysts covering SITM: Melissa Fairbanks · James Schneider · Tore Svanberg · Gary Mobley
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on SITM are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
SITM returns by year vs the S&P 500
SITM beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 6 full calendar years shown.
| Year | SITM | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +26.6% | +11.7% | +14.9% |
| 2025 | +64.6% | +17.7% | +46.9% |
| 2024 | +75.7% | +24.9% | +50.8% |
| 2023 | +20.1% | +26.2% | −6.1% |
| 2022 | −65.3% | −18.2% | −47.1% |
| 2021 | +161.4% | +28.7% | +132.7% |
| 2020 | +338.9% | +18.3% | +320.6% |
SITM risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, SITM had a Sharpe ratio of 0.43 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 66.2% and its beta 2.88: it tended to move about 2.9× as much as the market.
| Metric | SITM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +11.0% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 66.2% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.68 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −73.6% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 2.88 | 1.00 |
How SITM behaved in past crashes
SITM’s deepest fall in the crises below was −73.4% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | SITM | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 inflation bear market | −73.4% | −25.4% | −$73,430 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −38.0% | −19.0% | −$37,970 |
| Window | SITM max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −29.4% |
| Last 3 years | −55.3% |
| Last 5 years | −78.1% |
| Last 10 years | −78.1% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with SITM, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, SITM’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.67, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.72, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.31 and with gold (GLD) 0.15.
Adding a 5% SITM position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 17.1%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| REGN | −0.20 | ADI | 0.66 |
| COP | −0.19 | INTC | 0.63 |
| CME | −0.16 | TXN | 0.62 |
| XOM | −0.12 | CAT | 0.60 |
| MCK | −0.10 | APH | 0.59 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest SITM upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Target cut Buy | Tore Svanberg |
| Nov 4 | Target cut Buy | James Schneider |
| Sep 22 | New coverage Hold | Jay Goldberg |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on SITM in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get SITM right?
Of the 183 analyst price targets on SITM set from 2019 until a year ago, 86.9% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 18.3 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 32 days. The median target sat 20.4% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said SITM would be by now: a year ago, 7 analysts had a price target on SITM, and the median of their latest targets was $350.00. On Oct 20, 2026 SITM closed at $497.11, 42.0% above it.
86.9%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
32 daysmedian time to reach a target
+42.0%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of SITM | 3 | +21.1% | +23.5% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of SITM | 3 | −6.8% | +36.1% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on SITM through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How SITM moves after earnings
SITM beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 17.0% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 10 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
12/12earnings beats
±17.0%average move per report
10/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $2.34 vs $1.95 | +7.5% | +17.9% |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.44 vs $1.16 | +9.7% | +33.6% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $1.53 vs $1.20 | +11.2% | +16.7% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.87 vs $0.71 | +7.0% | +21.7% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.47 vs $0.29 | +7.5% | +0.5% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.26 vs $0.11 | +11.7% | +14.1% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $0.48 vs $0.42 | +26.0% | −17.8% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $0.40 vs $0.26 | +4.7% | +27.3% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where SITM’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025, SITM’s largest segment was Reportable Segment, with 100.0% of $326.7 million revenue (+61.2% on the year before).
From SITM’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Are SITM insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, SITM insiders made no open‑market purchases and 52 sales worth $87.7 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Dec 6, 2021.
After the 4 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, SITM beat the S&P 500 by an average of 252.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; 75% of them were followed by a beat (a small sample). Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2021 | Heckart Christine | Director | $109,212 |
| Nov 25, 2019 | Vashist Rajesh | Director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | $99,996 |
| Nov 25, 2019 | Chadwick Arthur D | See Remarks | $650,000 |
| Nov 25, 2019 | Sevalia Piyush B | See Remarks | $29,991 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of SITM is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 6.52% of SITM’s float was sold short: 1.5 million shares, or 2.9 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 6.09%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so SITM is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own SITM?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 591 institutions reported holding SITM in 13F filings, up 149 from the quarter before and up from 343 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 86.4% of SITM’s shares. In the quarter 340 institutions added to their positions and 197 cut them.
59113F holders
181new positions
35positions closed
86.4%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is SITM diluting shareholders?
SITM’s diluted share count rose 55.4% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 8.0% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $103.5 million in fiscal 2025, 31.7% of revenue. SITM did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+8.0%share count, 1 year
+55.4%share count, 5 years
31.7%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from SITM’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
SITM financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, SITM’s Altman Z‑score was 7.06, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.
7.06Altman Z‑score: safe zone
7/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold SITM?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 29 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held SITM. Its largest weight is in PSI (Invesco Semiconductors ETF), at 2.42% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of SITM |
|---|---|---|
| PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | 2.42% |
| SOXQ | Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF | 0.69% |
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | 0.57% |
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.48% |
| IJH | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.34% |
| SPMD | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.34% |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.34% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 0.33% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for SITM
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For SITM that is MDY. Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other technology stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +135.9% | 28.0% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +704.3% | 51.1% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +64.0% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +570.0% | 44.7% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,211% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +319.9% | 58.3% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +611.4% | 64.4% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | +45.7% | 40.4% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check SITM with Exent Gems
See what the best‑ranked analysts on SITM say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering SITM are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. SITM returned +68.8% (+11.0% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, SITM (SiTime Corporation) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, SITM (SiTime Corporation) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
SITM fell −73.4% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, SITM’s Sharpe ratio was 0.43 and its Sortino ratio 0.68, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
SITM’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 76.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 2.88.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with SITM over the last 60 months were REGN (−0.20), COP (−0.19), CME (−0.16). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.31 and with gold (GLD) 0.15.
SITM beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. The stock moved 17.0% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 6.52% of SITM’s float was sold short (1.5 million shares, 2.9 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 6.09%.
Yes. SITM’s diluted share count rose 55.4% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 8.0% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 31.7% of revenue.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on SITM now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on SITM are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.