How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Illinois Tool Works Inc., industrials (market value $76.9 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) returned +38.5% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 51.5 percentage points, or +6.7% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | ITW | S&P 500 | ITW per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −0.1% | +15.7% | −0.1% | +15.7% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +18.5% | +85.0% | +5.8% | +22.8% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +38.5% | +90.0% | +6.7% | +13.7% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +168.6% | +312.9% | +10.4% | +15.2% | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
ITW is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.
ITW beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | ITW | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +5.1% | +12.7% | −7.6% |
| 2025 | −0.4% | +17.7% | −18.1% |
| 2024 | −1.0% | +24.9% | −25.9% |
| 2023 | +21.6% | +26.2% | −4.6% |
| 2022 | −8.5% | −18.2% | +9.7% |
| 2021 | +23.6% | +28.7% | −5.1% |
| 2020 | +16.4% | +18.3% | −1.9% |
| 2019 | +45.6% | +31.2% | +14.4% |
| 2018 | −22.1% | −4.6% | −17.5% |
| 2017 | +38.9% | +21.7% | +17.2% |
Over 5 years, ITW had a Sharpe ratio of 0.24 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 22.8% and its beta 0.96: it tended to move about 1.0× as much as the market.
| Metric | ITW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.7% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 22.8% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.24 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.38 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −25.4% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.96 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
ITW’s deepest fall in the crises below was −56.4% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | ITW | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −56.4% | −56.5% | −$56,350 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −19.9% | −20.2% | −$19,870 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −37.9% | −34.1% | −$37,850 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −28.9% | −25.4% | −$28,920 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −20.4% | −19.0% | −$20,430 |
| Window | ITW max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −16.9% |
| Last 3 years | −20.6% |
| Last 5 years | −28.1% |
| Last 10 years | −37.9% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, ITW’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.66, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.44, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.50 and with gold (GLD) 0.13.
Adding a 5% ITW position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.7%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | −0.16 | PH | 0.80 |
| PLTR | −0.03 | HD | 0.78 |
| DDOG | −0.01 | SHW | 0.75 |
| PANW | −0.01 | LOW | 0.72 |
| DELL | 0.05 | MCD | 0.69 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 11 analysts published 133 ratings on ITW. Their latest calls were 13% Buy, 50% Hold and 38% Sell. 8 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $280.88 (range $219.00–$327.00), +1.5% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9★ | 61.8% | ||
| 4.9★ | 61.2% | ||
| 4.9★ | 55.5% | ||
| 4.9★ | 66.6% | ||
| Mircea Dobre | Robert W. Baird | 4.9★ | 56.3% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ITW are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | Downgrade Buy → Hold | Tami Zakaria |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ITW in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Of the 385 analyst price targets on ITW set from 2019 until a year ago, 74.0% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 5.4 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 48 days. The median target sat 0.5% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said ITW would be by now: a year ago, 7 analysts had a price target on ITW, and the median of their latest targets was $258.00. On Oct 20, 2026 ITW closed at $275.01, 6.6% above it.
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of ITW | 11 | +0.6% | +2.9% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of ITW | 13 | −1.0% | −1.2% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on ITW through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
ITW beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 28, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 4 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 2.6% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 5 of the 12 reports. In 7 of the 12 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Oct 27, 2026.
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | $2.84 vs $2.79 | +2.7% | +2.7% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $2.66 vs $2.57 | +0.2% | −3.8% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $2.72 vs $2.69 | +0.7% | +9.3% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | $2.81 vs $2.75 | −0.5% | −3.7% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $2.58 vs $2.56 | +0.7% | −1.4% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $2.38 vs $2.34 | −0.1% | −1.0% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $2.54 vs $2.49 | −1.3% | +0.2% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $3.91 vs $2.52 | −1.3% | +2.0% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), ITW’s largest reported region was North America, with 34.6% of its $24.5 billion revenue. By region: North America 34.6%; United States 30.2%; Europe 17.0%; Asia Pacific 12.6%.
By business, the largest segment was Automotive OEM Segment, with 20.5% of $16.1 billion revenue (+3.1% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive OEM Segment | $3.3 billion | 20.5% | +3.1% |
| Test and Measurement and Electronics Segment | $2.8 billion | 17.6% | +0.2% |
| Food Equipment Segment | $2.7 billion | 16.8% | +2.0% |
| Welding Segment | $1.9 billion | 11.8% | +2.1% |
| Construction Products Segment | $1.8 billion | 11.3% | −4.7% |
| Specialty Products Segment | $1.8 billion | 11.1% | +1.8% |
| Polymers and Fluids Segment | $1.8 billion | 11.0% | +0.1% |
From ITW’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 58 trades in ITW (30 buys and 28 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 10, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Rich McCormick | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 1, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Shelley Capito | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Rich McCormick | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
6 trades in ITW disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, ITW insiders made 2 open‑market purchases worth $1.9 million by 2 insiders and 14 sales worth $67.3 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
After the 19 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, ITW lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 0.1 percentage points over the next 12 months; 53% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | Director | $199,880 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Smith David Byron Jr | Director | $1.7 million |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Smith David Byron Jr | Director | $210,292 |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Smith David Byron Jr | Director | $174,752 |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Smith David Byron Jr | Director | $185,086 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.57% of ITW’s float was sold short: 9.2 million shares, or 6.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.68%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so ITW is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 2,008 institutions reported holding ITW in 13F filings, up 26 from the quarter before and up from 1,892 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 85.7% of ITW’s shares. In the quarter 844 institutions added to their positions and 766 cut them.
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
ITW’s diluted share count fell 8.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.8% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $69.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.4% of revenue. ITW spent $1.5 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.86% of its market value; stock pay equaled 4.6% of the buybacks.
Weighted‑average diluted shares from ITW’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, ITW’s Altman Z‑score was 7.94, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 8 out of 9; 20% of scored stocks reach 8 or more.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
On its latest earnings call (Jul 28, 2026), ITW’s executives and analysts did not mention AI, against 0 on the call before (Apr 30, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was china (8).
| Mentions | Jul ’26 | Apr ’26 | Feb ’26 | Oct ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AI agents | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Data centers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tariffs | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| China | 8 | 4 | 24 | 21 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 53 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held ITW. Its largest weight is in XLI (State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF), at 1.32% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of ITW |
|---|---|---|
| XLI | State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF | 1.32% |
| VIS | Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares | 1.06% |
| SDY | State Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF | 1.02% |
| HDV | iShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.92% |
| CGDV | Capital Group Dividend Value ETF | 0.89% |
| SPHQ | Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF | 0.78% |
| QUAL | iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | 0.71% |
| WTV | WisdomTree U.S. Value Fund | 0.64% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
Christopher A. O’Herlihy, ITW’s President & Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $15.2 million for fiscal 2025, up 39.1% from $10.9 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 27, 2026. 69% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so ITW’s CEO earned less than most.
| Pay component | Amount | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Salary | $1.3 million | 8.8% |
| Stock and option awards | $10.5 million | 69.0% |
| Incentive plan (cash) | $2.7 million | 17.8% |
| Other | $671,398 | 4.4% |
| Other top executives | Role | Total pay, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Michael M. Larsen | Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | $7.4 million |
| Mary K. Lawler | Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer | $3.5 million |
| Axel R.J. Beck | Executive Vice President | $3.2 million |
| T. Kenneth Escoe | Executive Vice President | $3.0 million |
Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ITW that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
No. ITW returned +168.6% (+10.4% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, ITW (Illinois Tool Works Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
ITW fell −56.4% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
ITW fell −37.9% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
ITW fell −28.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, ITW’s Sharpe ratio was 0.24 and its Sortino ratio 0.38, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
ITW’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 21.0%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.96.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ITW over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.16), PLTR (−0.03), DDOG (−0.01). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.50 and with gold (GLD) 0.13.
ITW beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 28, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 4 of 12. The stock moved 2.6% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Oct 27, 2026.
Christopher A. O’Herlihy, ITW’s President & Chief Executive Officer, received $15.2 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.3 million salary and $10.5 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 27, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 58 trades in ITW (30 buys and 28 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.57% of ITW’s float was sold short (9.2 million shares, 6.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.68%.
No. ITW’s diluted share count fell 8.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.8% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.4% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $1.5 billion.
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