StocksInsight

ITW Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Illinois Tool Works Inc., industrials (market value $76.9 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

13% Buy ratings (was 8%)11 analysts covering (was 12)8 4★+ analysts covering (was 9)

Key takeaways

  • ITW returned +38.5% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.24 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −56.4% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 21.0% and beta 0.96.
  • 11 analysts rated it in the past year; 13% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • ITW beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 2.6% on average, up or down, around each report.

Did ITW beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) returned +38.5% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 51.5 percentage points, or +6.7% a year against +13.7%.

PeriodITWS&P 500ITW per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year−0.1%+15.7%−0.1%+15.7%Lagged
3 years+18.5%+85.0%+5.8%+22.8%Lagged
5 years+38.5%+90.0%+6.7%+13.7%Lagged
10 years+168.6%+312.9%+10.4%+15.2%Lagged
  • 1 year
    ITW
    −0.1%
    S&P 500
    +15.7%
    ITW per year
    −0.1%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 3 years
    ITW
    +18.5%
    S&P 500
    +85.0%
    ITW per year
    +5.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +22.8%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    ITW
    +38.5%
    S&P 500
    +90.0%
    ITW per year
    +6.7%
    S&P 500 per year
    +13.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    ITW
    +168.6%
    S&P 500
    +312.9%
    ITW per year
    +10.4%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.2%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

ITW is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

ITW returns by year vs the S&P 500

ITW beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearITWS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Sep 30, 2026)+5.1%+12.7%−7.6%
2025−0.4%+17.7%−18.1%
2024−1.0%+24.9%−25.9%
2023+21.6%+26.2%−4.6%
2022−8.5%−18.2%+9.7%
2021+23.6%+28.7%−5.1%
2020+16.4%+18.3%−1.9%
2019+45.6%+31.2%+14.4%
2018−22.1%−4.6%−17.5%
2017+38.9%+21.7%+17.2%

ITW risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, ITW had a Sharpe ratio of 0.24 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 22.8% and its beta 0.96: it tended to move about 1.0× as much as the market.

MetricITWS&P 500
Annual return+6.7%+13.7%
Volatility (annualized)22.8%15.7%
Sharpe ratio0.240.67
Sortino ratio0.381.08
Max drawdown (month-end)−25.4%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.961.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How ITW behaved in past crashes

ITW’s deepest fall in the crises below was −56.4% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisITWS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−56.4%−56.5%−$56,350
2018 trade-war selloff−19.9%−20.2%−$19,870
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−37.9%−34.1%−$37,850
2022 inflation bear market−28.9%−25.4%−$28,920
2025 tariff selloff−20.4%−19.0%−$20,430
WindowITW max drawdown
Last 1 year−16.9%
Last 3 years−20.6%
Last 5 years−28.1%
Last 10 years−37.9%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with ITW, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, ITW’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.66, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.44, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.50 and with gold (GLD) 0.13.

Adding a 5% ITW position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.7%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
CRWD−0.16PH0.80
PLTR−0.03HD0.78
DDOG−0.01SHW0.75
PANW−0.01LOW0.72
DELL0.05MCD0.69

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

What Wall Street analysts say about ITW

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 11 analysts published 133 ratings on ITW. Their latest calls were 13% Buy, 50% Hold and 38% Sell. 8 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $280.88 (range $219.00–$327.00), +1.5% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
4.9★61.8%
4.9★61.2%
4.9★55.5%
4.9★66.6%
Mircea DobreRobert W. Baird4.9★56.3%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ITW are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

Latest ITW upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Oct 9Downgrade
Buy → Hold
Target $270, was $350
Tami Zakaria
J.P. Morgan

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ITW in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get ITW right?

Of the 385 analyst price targets on ITW set from 2019 until a year ago, 74.0% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 5.4 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 48 days. The median target sat 0.5% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said ITW would be by now: a year ago, 7 analysts had a price target on ITW, and the median of their latest targets was $258.00. On Oct 20, 2026 ITW closed at $275.01, 6.6% above it.

74.0%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
48 daysmedian time to reach a target
+6.6%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of ITW11+0.6%+2.9%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of ITW13−1.0%−1.2%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on ITW through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How ITW moves after earnings

ITW beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 28, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 4 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 2.6% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 5 of the 12 reports. In 7 of the 12 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Oct 27, 2026.

12/12earnings beats
±2.6%average move per report
Oct 27, 2026next report (expected)
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Jul 28, 2026$2.84 vs $2.79+2.7%+2.7%
Apr 30, 2026$2.66 vs $2.57+0.2%−3.8%
Feb 3, 2026$2.72 vs $2.69+0.7%+9.3%
Oct 24, 2025$2.81 vs $2.75−0.5%−3.7%
Jul 30, 2025$2.58 vs $2.56+0.7%−1.4%
Apr 30, 2025$2.38 vs $2.34−0.1%−1.0%
Feb 5, 2025$2.54 vs $2.49−1.3%+0.2%
Oct 30, 2024$3.91 vs $2.52−1.3%+2.0%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where ITW’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), ITW’s largest reported region was North America, with 34.6% of its $24.5 billion revenue. By region: North America 34.6%; United States 30.2%; Europe 17.0%; Asia Pacific 12.6%.

By business, the largest segment was Automotive OEM Segment, with 20.5% of $16.1 billion revenue (+3.1% on the year before).

  • North America34.6%
  • United States30.2%
  • Europe17.0%
  • Asia Pacific12.6%
  • Other North America4.4%
  • South America1.3%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Automotive OEM Segment$3.3 billion20.5%+3.1%
Test and Measurement and Electronics Segment$2.8 billion17.6%+0.2%
Food Equipment Segment$2.7 billion16.8%+2.0%
Welding Segment$1.9 billion11.8%+2.1%
Construction Products Segment$1.8 billion11.3%−4.7%
Specialty Products Segment$1.8 billion11.1%+1.8%
Polymers and Fluids Segment$1.8 billion11.0%+0.1%

From ITW’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded ITW

As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 58 trades in ITW (30 buys and 28 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 10, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Aug 10, 2026Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jul 30, 2026Rich McCormickSale$1,001–$15,000
Jul 7, 2026Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
May 1, 2026Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Feb 24, 2026Shelley CapitoSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 29, 2026Ro KhannaSale$15,001–$50,000
Nov 5, 2025Rich McCormickBuy$1,001–$15,000
Oct 31, 2025Lisa McClainSale$1,001–$15,000
Oct 30, 2025Lisa McClainSale$1,001–$15,000
Oct 30, 2025Lisa McClainBuy$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

6 trades in ITW disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.

Are ITW insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, ITW insiders made 2 open‑market purchases worth $1.9 million by 2 insiders and 14 sales worth $67.3 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings.

After the 19 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, ITW lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 0.1 percentage points over the next 12 months; 53% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q4 ’24
Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Jun 2, 2026Scanlon Jennifer F.Director$199,880
Dec 10, 2025Smith David Byron JrDirector$1.7 million
Jun 2, 2025Smith David Byron JrDirector$210,292
Dec 9, 2024Smith David Byron JrDirector$174,752
Jun 13, 2024Smith David Byron JrDirector$185,086

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of ITW is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.57% of ITW’s float was sold short: 9.2 million shares, or 6.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.68%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so ITW is less heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20263.50%
  • May 29, 20263.74%
  • Jun 30, 20263.93%
  • Jul 31, 20263.46%
  • Aug 31, 20263.40%
  • Sep 30, 20263.57%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own ITW?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 2,008 institutions reported holding ITW in 13F filings, up 26 from the quarter before and up from 1,892 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 85.7% of ITW’s shares. In the quarter 844 institutions added to their positions and 766 cut them.

2,00813F holders
152new positions
124positions closed
85.7%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is ITW diluting shareholders?

ITW’s diluted share count fell 8.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.8% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $69.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.4% of revenue. ITW spent $1.5 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.86% of its market value; stock pay equaled 4.6% of the buybacks.

−1.8%share count, 1 year
−8.2%share count, 5 years
0.4%stock pay as % of revenue
1.86%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from ITW’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

ITW financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, ITW’s Altman Z‑score was 7.94, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 8 out of 9; 20% of scored stocks reach 8 or more.

7.94Altman Z‑score: safe zone
8/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What ITW talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Jul 28, 2026), ITW’s executives and analysts did not mention AI, against 0 on the call before (Apr 30, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was china (8).

MentionsJul ’26Apr ’26Feb ’26Oct ’25
AI0000
AI agents0000
Data centers1010
Tariffs45320
China842421
Recession0000
  • AI
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • AI agents
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Jul ’26
    1
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    1
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Tariffs
    Jul ’26
    4
    Apr ’26
    5
    Feb ’26
    3
    Oct ’25
    20
  • China
    Jul ’26
    8
    Apr ’26
    4
    Feb ’26
    24
    Oct ’25
    21
  • Recession
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold ITW?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 53 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held ITW. Its largest weight is in XLI (State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF), at 1.32% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of ITW
XLIState Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF1.32%
VISVanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares1.06%
SDYState Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF1.02%
HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF0.92%
CGDVCapital Group Dividend Value ETF0.89%
SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETF0.78%
QUALiShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF0.71%
WTVWisdomTree U.S. Value Fund0.64%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is ITW’s CEO paid?

Christopher A. O’Herlihy, ITW’s President & Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $15.2 million for fiscal 2025, up 39.1% from $10.9 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 27, 2026. 69% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so ITW’s CEO earned less than most.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$1.3 million8.8%
Stock and option awards$10.5 million69.0%
Incentive plan (cash)$2.7 million17.8%
Other$671,3984.4%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2025
Michael M. LarsenSenior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$7.4 million
Mary K. LawlerSenior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer$3.5 million
Axel R.J. BeckExecutive Vice President$3.2 million
T. Kenneth EscoeExecutive Vice President$3.0 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

The right benchmark for ITW

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ITW that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other industrials stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
CATCaterpillar Inc.+359.4%31.8%
GEGE Aerospace+398.0%31.0%
RTXRTX Corporation+140.5%23.8%
GEVGE Vernova Inc.——
UNPUnion Pacific Corporation+54.7%22.6%
DEDeere & Company+112.8%29.8%
BAThe Boeing Company−15.4%36.6%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation+66.6%23.0%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

See what ITW does to your own portfolio

  1. Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
  2. Exent replays your whole portfolio, ITW included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
  3. It finds holdings that move together with ITW and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
  4. Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. ITW returned +168.6% (+10.4% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, ITW (Illinois Tool Works Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

ITW fell −56.4% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

ITW fell −37.9% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

ITW fell −28.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, ITW’s Sharpe ratio was 0.24 and its Sortino ratio 0.38, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.

ITW’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 21.0%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.96.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ITW over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.16), PLTR (−0.03), DDOG (−0.01). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.50 and with gold (GLD) 0.13.

ITW beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 28, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 4 of 12. The stock moved 2.6% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Oct 27, 2026.

Christopher A. O’Herlihy, ITW’s President & Chief Executive Officer, received $15.2 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.3 million salary and $10.5 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 27, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 58 trades in ITW (30 buys and 28 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.57% of ITW’s float was sold short (9.2 million shares, 6.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.68%.

No. ITW’s diluted share count fell 8.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.8% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.4% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $1.5 billion.

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