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HPQ Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

HP Inc., technology (market value $27.3 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 26

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

+9.3% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was +20.7%)

Key takeaways

  • HPQ returned +14.6% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.13 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −52.2% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 35.6% and beta 1.17.
  • 17 analysts rated it in the past year; 7% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • HPQ beat earnings estimates in 6 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 5.2% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on HPQ say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did HPQ beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, HP Inc. (HPQ) returned +14.6% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 61.3 percentage points, or +2.8% a year against +12.0%.

PeriodHPQS&P 500HPQ per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+9.3%+12.0%+9.3%+12.0%Lagged
3 years+23.7%+87.4%+7.4%+23.3%Lagged
5 years+14.6%+75.9%+2.8%+12.0%Lagged
10 years+179.3%+316.3%+10.8%+15.3%Lagged
  • 1 year
    HPQ
    +9.3%
    S&P 500
    +12.0%
    HPQ per year
    +9.3%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 3 years
    HPQ
    +23.7%
    S&P 500
    +87.4%
    HPQ per year
    +7.4%
    S&P 500 per year
    +23.3%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    HPQ
    +14.6%
    S&P 500
    +75.9%
    HPQ per year
    +2.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    HPQ
    +179.3%
    S&P 500
    +316.3%
    HPQ per year
    +10.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.3%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

HPQ is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about HPQ

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 17 analysts published 218 ratings on HPQ. Their latest calls were 7% Buy, 60% Hold and 33% Sell. 15 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $19.43 (range $16.00–$26.40), −31.7% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
??????5.0★73.8%
??????5.0★63.1%
??????5.0★66.6%
??????5.0★56.2%
??????5.0★58.6%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on HPQ are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

HPQ returns by year vs the S&P 500

HPQ beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearHPQS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Oct 30, 2026)+34.2%+11.7%+22.5%
2025−28.7%+17.7%−46.4%
2024+12.2%+24.9%−12.7%
2023+16.1%+26.2%−10.1%
2022−26.4%−18.2%−8.2%
2021+57.2%+28.7%+28.5%
2020+24.3%+18.3%+6.0%
2019+3.9%+31.2%−27.3%
2018−0.2%−4.6%+4.4%
2017+45.7%+21.7%+24.0%

HPQ risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, HPQ had a Sharpe ratio of 0.13 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 34.4% and its beta 1.17: it tended to move about 1.2× as much as the market.

MetricHPQS&P 500
Annual return+2.8%+12.0%
Volatility (annualized)34.4%15.5%
Sharpe ratio0.130.58
Sortino ratio0.220.91
Max drawdown (month-end)−44.3%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5001.171.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How HPQ behaved in past crashes

HPQ’s deepest fall in the crises below was −52.2% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisHPQS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−52.2%−56.5%−$52,210
2018 trade-war selloff−26.6%−20.2%−$26,650
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−43.9%−34.1%−$43,850
2022 inflation bear market−38.8%−25.4%−$38,800
2025 tariff selloff−37.0%−19.0%−$36,980
WindowHPQ max drawdown
Last 1 year−36.6%
Last 3 years−51.2%
Last 5 years−51.2%
Last 10 years−54.9%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with HPQ, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, HPQ’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.53, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.45, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.22 and with gold (GLD) 0.07.

Adding a 5% HPQ position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.7%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
PGR−0.09QCOM0.64
WM−0.06AAPL0.64
WMT−0.05MSFT0.56
MCK0.00DELL0.48
LLY0.00NOW0.44

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest HPQ upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Sep 11New coverage
Hold
Target $33
David Paige
RBC Capital

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on HPQ in the 5 weeks to Oct 4, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get HPQ right?

Of the 277 analyst price targets on HPQ set from 2019 until a year ago, 73.3% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 4.7 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 37 days. The median target sat 3.7% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said HPQ would be by now: a year ago, 4 analysts had a price target on HPQ, and the median of their latest targets was $26.50. On Oct 20, 2026 HPQ closed at $31.21, 17.8% above it.

73.3%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
37 daysmedian time to reach a target
+17.8%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of HPQ12+0.6%−5.6%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of HPQ23−4.0%−3.3%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on HPQ through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How HPQ moves after earnings

HPQ beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 6 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 26, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 5.2% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 5 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 6 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 24, 2026.

6/12earnings beats
±5.2%average move per report
Nov 24, 2026next report (expected)
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Aug 26, 2026$0.83 vs $0.66+8.6%+0.3%
May 27, 2026$0.86 vs $0.71+3.0%+2.4%
Feb 24, 2026$0.81 vs $0.77+3.6%−0.8%
Nov 25, 2025$0.93 vs $0.92+1.0%−1.6%
Aug 27, 2025$0.75 vs $0.74+1.8%+5.0%
May 28, 2025$0.71 vs $0.78+0.9%−12.0%
Feb 27, 2025$0.74 vs $0.75+0.9%−8.8%
Nov 26, 2024$0.93 vs $0.93+0.5%−11.8%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where HPQ’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Oct 31, 2025), HPQ’s largest reported region was Americas, with 42.6% of its $55.3 billion revenue. By region: Americas 42.6%; Emea 33.6%; Asia Pacific 23.8%.

By business, the largest segment was Personal Systems Group, with 69.7% of $55.3 billion revenue (+6.5% on the year before).

  • Americas42.6%
  • Emea33.6%
  • Asia Pacific23.8%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Personal Systems Group$38.5 billion69.7%+6.5%
Printing$16.7 billion30.2%−3.7%
Corporate Investments$62.0 million0.1%+148.0%

From HPQ’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded HPQ

As of Oct 20, 2026, 14 members of Congress had disclosed 38 trades in HPQ (19 buys and 19 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Mar 27, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jan 29, 2026Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Apr 8, 2025Rob BresnahanSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 28, 2025John BoozmanSale$1,001–$15,000
Feb 13, 2024Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 10, 2024Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Oct 31, 2023Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Oct 31, 2023Thomas TubervilleSale$15,001–$50,000
Oct 30, 2023Thomas TubervilleBuy$15,001–$50,000
Oct 23, 2023Thomas TubervilleBuy$15,001–$50,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

Are HPQ insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, HPQ insiders made no open‑market purchases and 7 sales worth $6.4 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Apr 6, 2022.

After the 19 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, HPQ beat the S&P 500 by an average of 12.1 percentage points over the next 12 months; 32% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
Q4 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Apr 6, 2022Berkshire Hathaway Inc10 percent owner$8.9 million
Apr 5, 2022Berkshire Hathaway Inc10 percent owner$86.5 million
Apr 4, 2022Buffett Warren EDirector$8.9 million
Apr 4, 2022Berkshire Hathaway Inc10 percent owner$160.0 million
Mar 31, 2022Broussard Bruce DDirector$249,723

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of HPQ is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.13% of HPQ’s float was sold short: 73.1 million shares, or 4.6 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 5.53%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so HPQ is more heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 202612.79%
  • May 29, 202610.08%
  • Jun 30, 20269.77%
  • Jul 31, 20268.67%
  • Aug 31, 20268.58%
  • Sep 30, 20268.13%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own HPQ?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,138 institutions reported holding HPQ in 13F filings, up 62 from the quarter before and down from 1,154 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 92.1% of HPQ’s shares. In the quarter 590 institutions added to their positions and 336 cut them.

1,13813F holders
156new positions
100positions closed
92.1%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is HPQ diluting shareholders?

HPQ’s diluted share count fell 32.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 3.6% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $522.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.9% of revenue. HPQ spent $850.0 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 3.05% of its market value; stock pay equaled 61.4% of the buybacks.

−3.6%share count, 1 year
−32.9%share count, 5 years
0.9%stock pay as % of revenue
3.05%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from HPQ’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

HPQ financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, HPQ’s Altman Z‑score was 1.63, in the distress zone (where 180 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.

1.63Altman Z‑score: distress zone
7/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What HPQ talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Aug 26, 2026), HPQ’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 88 times, against 43 on the call before (May 27, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was tariffs (19).

MentionsAug ’26May ’26Feb ’26Nov ’25
AI88433623
AI agents3421
Data centers2200
Tariffs19235
China1010
Recession0000
  • AI
    Aug ’26
    88
    May ’26
    43
    Feb ’26
    36
    Nov ’25
    23
  • AI agents
    Aug ’26
    3
    May ’26
    4
    Feb ’26
    2
    Nov ’25
    1
  • Data centers
    Aug ’26
    2
    May ’26
    2
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Tariffs
    Aug ’26
    19
    May ’26
    2
    Feb ’26
    3
    Nov ’25
    5
  • China
    Aug ’26
    1
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    1
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold HPQ?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 59 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held HPQ. Its largest weight is in PTF (Invesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF), at 2.68% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of HPQ
PTFInvesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF2.68%
DVYiShares Select Dividend ETF2.33%
FGDFirst Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Fund1.73%
FDVVFidelity High Dividend ETF1.23%
COWZPacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF0.84%
WTVWisdomTree U.S. Value Fund0.76%
FDLFirst Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund0.66%
VOEVanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund0.48%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

The right benchmark for HPQ

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For HPQ that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other technology stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
NVDANVIDIA Corporation+704.3%51.1%
AAPLApple Inc.+135.9%27.9%
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation+64.0%26.5%
AVGOBroadcom Inc.+570.0%44.2%
MUMicron Technology, Inc.+1,211%51.9%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.+319.9%57.5%
INTCIntel Corporation+45.7%51.2%
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.+611.4%64.4%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check HPQ with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average HPQ price target is 31.7% below the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on HPQ say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering HPQ are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. HPQ returned +179.3% (+10.8% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, HPQ (HP Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

HPQ fell −52.2% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

HPQ fell −43.9% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

HPQ fell −38.8% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, HPQ’s Sharpe ratio was 0.13 and its Sortino ratio 0.22, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

HPQ’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 35.6%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.17.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with HPQ over the last 60 months were PGR (−0.09), WM (−0.06), WMT (−0.05). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.22 and with gold (GLD) 0.07.

HPQ beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 6 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 26, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. The stock moved 5.2% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 24, 2026.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 14 members of Congress had disclosed 38 trades in HPQ (19 buys and 19 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.13% of HPQ’s float was sold short (73.1 million shares, 4.6 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 5.53%.

No. HPQ’s diluted share count fell 32.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 3.6% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.9% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $850.0 million.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on HPQ now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on HPQ are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.