What stocks, leveraged ETFs, Treasuries of every length, gold and T‑bills did in the two hiking runs since 2016, how far each fell along the way, and how long the losses took to recover. With a market risk check updated every trading day.
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It depends on how fast the Fed moves and on what you hold. Slow hikes into a growing economy left stock investors ahead; fast hikes to fight inflation hurt stocks and bonds at the same time. Since 2016 there have been two hiking runs, and they could hardly have been more different:
| Hiking run | Hikes | Fed target range | Speed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2016 – Dec 2018 | 8 (the run began with a first hike in Dec 2015) | 0.25–0.50% to 2.25–2.50% | 2 percentage points in two years |
| Mar 2022 – Jul 2023 | 11 | 0–0.25% to 5.25–5.50% | 5.25 points in 16 months |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 1 so far | 3.50–3.75% to 3.75–4.00% | First hike since July 2023 |
Dates and ranges are from the Federal Reserve’s table of target‑rate changes and its Sep 16, 2026 statement. The tables below measure each run from the close before its first hike to the day of its last, with dividends and interest included. They are part of the portfolio protection guide.
| Episode | Window (close to close) | Trading days | S&P 500 (SPY), total return | S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016–18 hikes | Dec 13, 2016 → Dec 19, 2018 | 507 | +14.6% | −14.4% |
| 2022–23 hikes | Mar 15, 2022 → Jul 26, 2023 | 342 | +9.4% | −22.7% |
| Episode | 2016–18 hikes | 2022–23 hikes |
|---|---|---|
| Window (close to close) | Dec 13, 2016 → Dec 19, 2018 | Mar 15, 2022 → Jul 26, 2023 |
| Trading days | 507 | 342 |
| S&P 500 (SPY), total return | +14.6% | +9.4% |
| S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) | −14.4% | −22.7% |
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 3.1% above its 200‑day average (+5.2% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 11.3% a year, about normal for the period since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Nov 2, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Through Nov 2, 2026. “vs 200‑day avg.” = how far the close sits above or below its 200‑day average.
| Index fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | From its high | vs 200‑day avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −1.7% | +11.2% | −3.5% | +3.1% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −4.4% | +11.2% | −10.3% | +0.2% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | +0.8% | +14.2% | −8.3% | +0.5% |
| Index fund | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Russell 2000 (IWM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 days | −1.7% | −4.4% | +0.8% |
| Year to date | +11.2% | +11.2% | +14.2% |
| From its high | −3.5% | −10.3% | −8.3% |
| vs 200‑day avg. | +3.1% | +0.2% | +0.5% |
Year‑to‑date return through Nov 2, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −3.5% | +16.4% | +22.3% | −7.4% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −5.4% | +20.9% | +33.5% | −11.6% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −8.8% | +14.2% | +22.5% | −20.3% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −13.1% | +13.5% | +33.7% | −31.5% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | +2.1% | +26.7% | +42.5% | −46.4% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −24.7% | +62.3% | +152.7% | −77.3% |
Returns through Nov 2, 2026, dividends and interest included.
| Asset | Last 5 days | 1 month | Year to date | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T‑bills, 1–3 months (BIL) | +0.1% | +0.3% | +3.0% | +3.7% |
| Treasuries, 1–3 years (SHY) | +0.3% | +0.8% | +1.3% | +2.1% |
| Treasuries, 7–10 years (IEF) | +0.8% | +3.1% | −1.6% | −1.4% |
| Treasuries, 20+ years (TLT) | +0.5% | +5.9% | −2.6% | −5.2% |
| US bond market (AGG) | +0.5% | +2.4% | −0.4% | −0.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | −1.7% | −4.9% | −8.7% | −2.3% |
| Min‑volatility stocks (USMV) | −0.3% | +4.9% | +10.6% | +12.2% |
| −1× S&P 500 (SH) | +1.9% | +2.8% | −6.1% | −5.8% |
Last updated Nov 2, 2026. Members only.
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Over both runs as a whole, stocks rose. Inside them, the falls were large, and leverage multiplied them. This table shows what each fund returned from the first hike to the last:
| Fund | 2016–18 hikes | 2022–23 hikes |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.6% | +9.4% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | +30.5% | +16.2% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | +21.8% | +6.1% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | +24.9% | −3.5% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | +52.9% | +13.4% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | +70.8% | +2.1% |
And this one shows the largest fall each fund suffered somewhere inside the run:
| Fund | 2016–18 hikes | 2022–23 hikes |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −14.0% | −22.1% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −17.1% | −29.6% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −27.5% | −42.5% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −39.5% | −58.9% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −33.4% | −55.6% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −47.8% | −73.9% |
The 2022–23 run shows the problem with leverage in a rate shock. The S&P 500 ended it 9.4% higher, yet UPRO ended it 3.5% lower and TQQQ only 2.1% higher, after a fall of 73.9%. Leveraged funds reset every day, so a long stretch of large swings in both directions eats into them even when the index gets back up; that is leveraged ETF decay. In the gentler 2016–18 run the same funds did what holders hoped: TQQQ returned 70.8%, though it still fell 47.8% at its worst along the way.
The worst stretch for stocks did not come at the first hike. In 2022 the first hike day (Mar 16) was a strong up day; the S&P 500’s low came seven months later, on Oct 12, 2022, after four more hikes. In 2018 the low came on Dec 24, five days after the last one. More on those falls in how much leveraged ETFs lose in a crash.
Bond prices fall when rates rise, and the longer the bond, the bigger the fall. In the slow 2016–18 run that loss was small and interest made up for it. In the fast 2022–23 run it was severe: in 2022 the broad US bond market had its worst year since its index began in 1976 (Yahoo Finance).
| Fund | 2016–18 hikes | 2022–23 hikes |
|---|---|---|
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | +7.6% | −20.2% |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | +2.5% | −9.0% |
| US bonds (AGG) | +2.9% | −5.7% |
| 1–3y Treasuries (SHY) | +1.3% | −0.9% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +2.2% | +4.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | +6.3% | +2.5% |
Over the 2022–23 run, long Treasuries (TLT) lost 20.2% and fell as much as 29.8% along the way; 7–10 year Treasuries (IEF) lost 9.0%. Short Treasuries barely moved, and T‑bills (BIL) gained 4.0% because every hike lifted the rate they paid. Gold ended 2.5% higher, after a fall of 18.1%. A 60/40 portfolio’s “safe” 40% was not safe in this kind of hiking run; see cash, T‑bills or bonds when you step aside and how to hedge against rising rates.
The first year told the two runs apart. After the Dec 2016 hike, everything on this list was higher a year later. After the Mar 2022 hike, almost everything was lower, and the leveraged funds were down by a third or more:
| Fund | 2016–18 hikes | 2022–23 hikes |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +19.5% | −5.5% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | +30.8% | −5.8% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | +62.4% | −34.2% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | +109.1% | −42.2% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | +9.9% | −17.9% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +0.5% | +2.3% |
Getting back to even took longer the more risk a fund carried. This is when each fund first closed back at its value from the day before the Mar 2022 hike (Exent’s data through Sep 30, 2026):
| Back to its starting value | 2022–23 hikes |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | May 2023 (14 mo.) |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | May 2023 (14 mo.) |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | Jun 2023 (15 mo.) |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | Dec 2023 (21 mo.) |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | Jul 2023 (16 mo.) |
| US bonds (AGG) | Aug 2024 (29 mo.) |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | Nov 2025 (44 mo.) |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | Not by Sep 2026 |
| T‑bills (BIL) | Never below its start |
The S&P 500 needed about 14 months and UPRO about 21. Long Treasuries were still below their March 2022 value four and a half years later: a bond fund can take longer to recover from a rate shock than a stock fund does.
The Sep 16, 2026 hike was the Fed’s first in three years, with inflation above its 2% goal (Yahoo Finance). The episodes above are history, not a forecast of what the next hikes will do. For the opposite case, see what happens to your portfolio when the Fed cuts.
Not as a rule. Over the 2016–18 hikes the S&P 500 (SPY) returned 14.6%, and over the 2022–23 hikes 9.4%. But in 2022 it fell as much as 22.1% before recovering, and its low came seven months after the first hike.
Their prices fall, more for longer bonds. Over the 2022–23 hikes, long Treasuries (TLT) fell as much as 29.8%, 7–10 year Treasuries 13.9% and 1–3 year Treasuries 3.3%, while T-bills gained 4.0%, in Exent’s data.
They were in 2022–23: TQQQ fell 73.9% at its worst and the 3x S&P 500 fund UPRO ended the run 3.5% lower although the S&P 500 rose 9.4%. In the slower 2016–18 run TQQQ returned 70.8%, with a 47.8% fall along the way.
T-bills were the only asset in these tables that never fell during either run, and they returned more as rates rose: 4.0% over the 2022–23 hikes. Their return trails stocks over long periods.
From the day before the March 2022 hike, the S&P 500 was back in May 2023, TQQQ in July 2023 and UPRO in December 2023. Long Treasuries (TLT) had not recovered by September 2026.
On September 16, 2026, by a quarter point to a 3.75–4% range, by a 12–0 vote. It was the first hike since July 2023.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.