How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
ETFsInsight
TLT ETF vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (market value $40.2 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 26
Exent re-checks this page every day.
−5.2% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was −9.0%)
Key takeaways
- TLT returned −33.7% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was −0.73 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −31.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 15.9% and beta 0.51.
What is your own portfolio exposed to? Check it with Exent →
Did TLT beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) returned −33.7% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 109.6 percentage points, or −7.9% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | TLT | S&P 500 | TLT per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −5.2% | +12.0% | −5.2% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +11.3% | +87.4% | +3.6% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −33.7% | +75.9% | −7.9% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 10 years | −16.9% | +316.3% | −1.8% | +15.3% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- TLT
- −5.2%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- TLT per year
- −5.2%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 3 years
- TLT
- +11.3%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- TLT per year
- +3.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Lagged
- 5 years
- TLT
- −33.7%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- TLT per year
- −7.9%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- TLT
- −16.9%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- TLT per year
- −1.8%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
Is TLT good for retirement?
TLT is not a core retirement holding. It is long US Treasuries, 20+ years (ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index). A duration near 15 years makes it a volatile rate bet: it fell 31.2% in calendar 2022 alone and 43.7% peak to trough over five years (Exent market data).
Pros
- Strongest crash hedge when rates fall sharply, and a 5.30% 30-day SEC yield (Oct 22, 2026).
Cons
- Price swings like a stock fund: −8.44% a year over five years (NAV, iShares).
When it is the wrong choice: If you treat it as a safe bond fund: in rising-rate years it can lose more than stocks.
Similar ETFs to compare
| ETF | Expense ratio | Why consider it |
|---|---|---|
| TLT | 0.15% | this fund |
| VGLT | 0.03% | 10+ year Treasuries: a bit less duration, lower fee |
| VGIT | 0.03% | 3–10 years, far less rate risk |
| EDV | 0.05% | zero-coupon, even longer duration |
Fits: Early retirement (FIRE). How to choose: Best ETFs for Retirement in 2026: How to Choose by Age and Situation.
Source: the benchmark, ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, and the fund’s mechanics were checked on the iShares (BlackRock) TLT fact sheet on Oct 25, 2026. Expense ratios are from the issuers; trailing returns quoted here are issuer NAV returns to September 30, 2026, and drawdowns, calendar-year returns and trailing yields are Exent market data (daily total return, distributions reinvested) over the same period. Educational, not a recommendation for your situation.
TLT returns by year vs the S&P 500
TLT beat the S&P 500 in 1 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | TLT | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −2.8% | +11.7% | −14.5% |
| 2025 | +4.3% | +17.7% | −13.4% |
| 2024 | −8.1% | +24.9% | −33.0% |
| 2023 | +2.8% | +26.2% | −23.4% |
| 2022 | −31.2% | −18.2% | −13.0% |
| 2021 | −4.6% | +28.7% | −33.3% |
| 2020 | +18.2% | +18.3% | −0.1% |
| 2019 | +14.1% | +31.2% | −17.1% |
| 2018 | −1.6% | −4.6% | +3.0% |
| 2017 | +9.2% | +21.7% | −12.5% |
TLT risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, TLT had a Sharpe ratio of −0.73 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 14.8% and its beta 0.51: it tended to move about 0.5× as much as the market.
| Metric | TLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −7.9% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 14.8% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.73 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | −0.91 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −42.0% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.51 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How TLT behaved in past crashes
TLT’s deepest fall in the crises below was −31.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | TLT | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −16.7% | −56.5% | −$16,670 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −4.8% | −20.2% | −$4,750 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −15.7% | −34.1% | −$15,730 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −31.1% | −25.4% | −$31,100 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −4.8% | −19.0% | −$4,850 |
| Window | TLT max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −7.6% |
| Last 3 years | −19.2% |
| Last 5 years | −43.7% |
| Last 10 years | −51.8% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with TLT, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, TLT’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.53, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.48, with long Treasuries (TLT) 1.00 and with gold (GLD) 0.33.
Adding a 5% TLT position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.1%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| COP | −0.04 | MCO | 0.62 |
| VLO | −0.01 | PLD | 0.58 |
| XOM | 0.00 | AMT | 0.57 |
| EOG | 0.01 | HD | 0.57 |
| MRK | 0.04 | SPGI | 0.52 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
The right benchmark for TLT
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For TLT that is AGG (US investment‑grade bonds). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other popular ETFs
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | SPAC and New Issue ETF | +455.5% | 8.3% |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares | +68.1% | 17.4% |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.8% |
| IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.9% |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +75.9% | 17.0% |
| 1557.T | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +78.6% | 20.7% |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total Intl Stock Idx Fund | +47.5% | 16.0% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | +84.3% | 22.3% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Holdings and weights are the fund’s latest published holdings; ETF overlap compares those holdings stock by stock.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what TLT does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, TLT included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with TLT and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
TLT is not a core retirement holding. It is long US Treasuries, 20+ years (ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index). A duration near 15 years makes it a volatile rate bet: it fell 31.2% in calendar 2022 alone and 43.7% peak to trough over five years (Exent market data). It is a poor fit if you treat it as a safe bond fund: in rising-rate years it can lose more than stocks.
TLT charges 0.15% a year. Lower-cost ETFs to compare: VGLT at 0.03% (10+ year Treasuries: a bit less duration, lower fee); VGIT at 0.03% (3–10 years, far less rate risk); EDV at 0.05% (zero-coupon, even longer duration). Expense ratios as of Oct 25, 2026 (issuer data where available, otherwise Exent market data); check that the exposure, not just the fee, matches what you want.
No. TLT returned −16.9% (−1.8% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
TLT fell −16.7% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
TLT fell −15.7% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
TLT fell −31.1% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, TLT’s Sharpe ratio was −0.73 and its Sortino ratio −0.91, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
TLT’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 15.9%, lower than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.51.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with TLT over the last 60 months were COP (−0.04), VLO (−0.01), XOM (0.00). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 1.00 and with gold (GLD) 0.33.
Sources
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fact sheet — iShares (BlackRock), Oct 25, 2026
What would TLT do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.