Four cutting runs since 2019, three calm and one in a crash: what stocks, leveraged ETFs, Treasuries, gold and T‑bills did during the cuts and in the year after. With a market risk check updated every trading day.
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Usually it rose, unless the cuts were a response to a crisis. A cut lowers the rate on cash and short‑term loans, which supports stocks and bonds, but it can also be a sign that the Fed sees trouble ahead. Since 2019 the Fed has run four cutting runs, and the one that came with a crash behaved nothing like the other three. Dates and ranges are from the Federal Reserve’s table of target‑rate changes; each window runs from the close before the first cut to the day of the last, dividends and interest included. This page is part of the portfolio protection guide.
| Episode | Window (close to close) | Trading days | S&P 500 (SPY), total return | S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 cuts | Jul 30, 2019 → Oct 30, 2019 | 65 | +1.6% | −5.6% |
| 2020 emergency cuts | Mar 2, 2020 → Mar 16, 2020 | 10 | −22.4% | −23.3% |
| 2024 cuts | Sep 17, 2024 → Dec 18, 2024 | 65 | +4.4% | −3.5% |
| 2025 cuts | Sep 16, 2025 → Dec 10, 2025 | 60 | +4.5% | −5.1% |
The 2019 run cut 0.75 points in three steps. The 2020 run cut 1.5 points in twelve days, on Mar 3 and on Sunday, Mar 15, in the middle of the COVID crash. The 2024 run cut 1 point, the 2025 run 0.75 points. For the long history of first cuts since 1980, see how Fed rate cuts affect stocks.
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 3.1% above its 200‑day average (+5.2% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 11.3% a year, about normal for the period since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Nov 2, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Returns through Nov 2, 2026, dividends and interest included.
| Asset | Last 5 days | 1 month | Year to date | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T‑bills, 1–3 months (BIL) | +0.1% | +0.3% | +3.0% | +3.7% |
| Treasuries, 1–3 years (SHY) | +0.3% | +0.8% | +1.3% | +2.1% |
| Treasuries, 7–10 years (IEF) | +0.8% | +3.1% | −1.6% | −1.4% |
| Treasuries, 20+ years (TLT) | +0.5% | +5.9% | −2.6% | −5.2% |
| US bond market (AGG) | +0.5% | +2.4% | −0.4% | −0.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | −1.7% | −4.9% | −8.7% | −2.3% |
| Min‑volatility stocks (USMV) | −0.3% | +4.9% | +10.6% | +12.2% |
| −1× S&P 500 (SH) | +1.9% | +2.8% | −6.1% | −5.8% |
Last updated Nov 2, 2026. Members only.
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During the cuts themselves, stocks rose a little in the calm runs and collapsed in 2020:
| Fund | 2019 cuts | 2020 emergency cuts | 2024 cuts | 2025 cuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +1.6% | −22.4% | +4.4% | +4.5% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | +1.9% | −21.8% | +9.2% | +6.3% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | +1.7% | −43.2% | +7.4% | +7.3% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | +1.3% | −60.7% | +9.5% | +10.0% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | +1.8% | −41.1% | +16.6% | +10.7% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | +1.0% | −57.4% | +24.3% | +14.6% |
The emergency cuts did not stop the 2020 crash. On Mar 3, 2020, the day of the first one, the S&P 500 fund fell 2.9%; on Mar 16, the first trading day after the Fed cut to near zero, it fell 10.9%, its worst day from mid‑2016 to 2026 in Exent’s data. The 3× S&P 500 fund UPRO lost 60.7% over the two weeks. The low came a week later, on Mar 23.
The year after the first cut is where the calm runs paid off. In each of them the S&P 500 was 10% to 20% higher twelve months on, and leveraged Nasdaq‑100 funds far more:
| Fund | 2019 cuts | 2020 emergency cuts | 2024 cuts | 2025 cuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +10.3% | +27.4% | +19.7% | +17.6% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | +35.1% | +48.2% | +27.3% | +25.0% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −11.1% | +40.1% | +37.8% | +38.7% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | +63.0% | +111.1% | +58.8% | +56.7% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | +31.4% | −7.1% | −7.8% | −9.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | +37.2% | +8.9% | +42.9% | +11.3% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +1.1% | +0.1% | +4.5% | +3.5% |
Two cautions sit in that table. The year after the 2019 cut ran straight through the COVID crash, so UPRO was still 11.1% lower twelve months later while the S&P 500 was 10.3% higher: a 3× fund can lag badly after a deep fall. And the strong year after the 2020 cuts was a rebound from the crash low, not a reward for buying on the day of the cut. More on how leverage behaves in when it is safe to hold leveraged ETFs.
The Fed sets the shortest rate. Longer rates are set by the bond market, and they do not have to follow. During the 2019 and 2020 cuts long Treasuries rose; during the 2024 cuts they fell, and they kept falling in the year after the 2025 cut:
| Fund | 2019 cuts | 2020 emergency cuts | 2024 cuts | 2025 cuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | +6.3% | +6.5% | −10.4% | −1.2% |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | +2.5% | +2.9% | −5.2% | +0.1% |
| US bonds (AGG) | +2.0% | −1.9% | −3.6% | +0.3% |
| 1–3y Treasuries (SHY) | +0.8% | +1.0% | −0.4% | +0.8% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +0.5% | +0.2% | +1.2% | +0.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | +4.5% | −5.1% | +0.8% | +14.6% |
Gold did well in the two recent runs: it rose 14.6% during the 2025 cuts and 42.9% in the year after the 2024 cut. It fell 5.1% during the 2020 emergency cuts. T‑bills (BIL) kept a positive return in every window, but a smaller one as cuts lowered their rate. Savers had built up a record $7.7 trillion in money market funds by September 2025, with the inflows starting in 2022, when the Fed raised rates (Benzinga). Where money goes when you step aside is covered in cash, T‑bills or bonds.
Nobody knows at the first cut which kind of run it will be. The market’s own behaviour gave clues in these four cases: in 2020 the first cut came after the S&P 500 had already fallen 8.6% from its record in eight trading days; in 2019, 2024 and 2025 the index was within half a percent of its record when the first cut arrived. Investors who hold leverage tend to plan for both cases:
Which sectors led after past cuts is in which sectors do well when rates fall. The episodes above are history; they do not say what the next cut will bring.
After the three calm cutting runs since 2019 they did: the S&P 500 (SPY) was 10.3%, 19.7% and 17.6% higher a year after the first cut of 2019, 2024 and 2025. During the 2020 emergency cuts it fell 22.4% in two weeks.
It was 63.0%, 58.8% and 56.7% higher a year after the first cut of 2019, 2024 and 2025, and fell 57.4% during the 2020 emergency cuts, in Exent’s data. A 3x fund magnifies whatever the market does after the cut.
Not always. Long Treasuries (TLT) rose 6.3% during the 2019 cuts and 6.5% during the 2020 cuts, but fell 10.4% during the 2024 cuts and 9.4% in the year after the September 2025 cut, because longer rates rose while the Fed cut.
In recent runs it did well: gold (GLD) rose 14.6% during the 2025 cuts and 42.9% in the year after the 2024 cut. It fell 5.1% during the 2020 emergency cuts.
No. The S&P 500 fund fell 2.9% on March 3, 2020, the day of the first emergency cut, and 10.9% on March 16, after the cut to near zero. The low came on March 23.
No. Its last cut was on December 10, 2025, to 3.50–3.75%. It held through July 2026 and raised the range to 3.75–4% on September 16, 2026.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.