Stocks, leveraged ETFs, Treasuries, gold and T‑bills in the 2020 recession, in the 2022 bear market that came without one, and in the 2007–09 crisis: how far each fell, what protected, and how long recovery took. With a market risk check updated every trading day.
Market risk reading, cross‑asset context and an events calendar: see Exent →
Stocks fall, usually before the recession is official, and they usually start recovering before it ends. What protects the rest of the portfolio depends on why the economy is shrinking. In a shock like 2020, interest rates fell and Treasuries rose. In 2022, when inflation and rising rates drove stocks down without a recession, bonds fell too.
Exent’s daily data covers one recession in full: the COVID recession, which the National Bureau of Economic Research dates from a peak in February 2020 to a trough in April 2020. The table compares it with the 2022 bear market, the deepest fall of the decade that came without a recession. Both are measured from the close before, dividends and interest included. This page is part of the portfolio protection guide.
| Episode | Window (close to close) | Trading days | S&P 500 (SPY), total return | S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 recession (Feb–Apr 2020) | Jan 31, 2020 → Apr 30, 2020 | 62 | −9.2% | −34.1% |
| 2022 bear market, no recession | Dec 31, 2021 → Oct 12, 2022 | 196 | −24.1% | −25.4% |
| Episode | 2020 recession (Feb–Apr 2020) | 2022 bear market, no recession |
|---|---|---|
| Window (close to close) | Jan 31, 2020 → Apr 30, 2020 | Dec 31, 2021 → Oct 12, 2022 |
| Trading days | 62 | 196 |
| S&P 500 (SPY), total return | −9.2% | −24.1% |
| S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) | −34.1% | −25.4% |
The S&P 500’s own fall from its February 19, 2020 record to the March 23 low was 34.1%; it was back at the record on Aug 18, 2020. For the ten recessions since 1957 and how far stocks fell in each, see what happens to stocks during a recession.
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 3.1% above its 200‑day average (+5.2% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 11.3% a year, about normal for the period since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Nov 2, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Through Nov 2, 2026. “vs 200‑day avg.” = how far the close sits above or below its 200‑day average.
| Index fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | From its high | vs 200‑day avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −1.7% | +11.2% | −3.5% | +3.1% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −4.4% | +11.2% | −10.3% | +0.2% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | +0.8% | +14.2% | −8.3% | +0.5% |
| Index fund | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Russell 2000 (IWM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 days | −1.7% | −4.4% | +0.8% |
| Year to date | +11.2% | +11.2% | +14.2% |
| From its high | −3.5% | −10.3% | −8.3% |
| vs 200‑day avg. | +3.1% | +0.2% | +0.5% |
Year‑to‑date return through Nov 2, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −3.5% | +16.4% | +22.3% | −7.4% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −5.4% | +20.9% | +33.5% | −11.6% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −8.8% | +14.2% | +22.5% | −20.3% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −13.1% | +13.5% | +33.7% | −31.5% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | +2.1% | +26.7% | +42.5% | −46.4% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −24.7% | +62.3% | +152.7% | −77.3% |
Returns through Nov 2, 2026, dividends and interest included.
| Asset | Last 5 days | 1 month | Year to date | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T‑bills, 1–3 months (BIL) | +0.1% | +0.3% | +3.0% | +3.7% |
| Treasuries, 1–3 years (SHY) | +0.3% | +0.8% | +1.3% | +2.1% |
| Treasuries, 7–10 years (IEF) | +0.8% | +3.1% | −1.6% | −1.4% |
| Treasuries, 20+ years (TLT) | +0.5% | +5.9% | −2.6% | −5.2% |
| US bond market (AGG) | +0.5% | +2.4% | −0.4% | −0.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | −1.7% | −4.9% | −8.7% | −2.3% |
| Min‑volatility stocks (USMV) | −0.3% | +4.9% | +10.6% | +12.2% |
| −1× S&P 500 (SH) | +1.9% | +2.8% | −6.1% | −5.8% |
Last updated Nov 2, 2026. Members only.
| Exent regime pillar | Today |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | |
| Credit stress | |
| Economic cycle | |
| Sentiment | |
| Regime: Risk ON · Neutral · Risk OFF |
Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
This is each fund’s largest fall from a high inside each window:
| Fund | 2020 recession | 2022, no recession |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −33.7% | −24.5% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −28.6% | −34.3% |
| Min‑volatility US stocks (USMV) | −33.1% | −17.8% |
| Energy stocks (XLE) | −56.4% | −26.1% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −59.3% | −46.7% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −76.8% | −63.9% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −51.7% | −61.2% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −69.9% | −78.8% |
Leveraged funds fell about 1.8 to 2.6 times as far as their index in these two windows. The deepest recession these funds have lived through was 2007–09. In that crisis the S&P 500 fund’s largest fall was 56.5%, and the 2× funds fell much further (3× funds did not exist yet):
| Fund | Largest fall in the 2007–09 crisis | Gain needed to get back to even |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −56.5% | +130% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −53.6% | +116% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −85.5% | +590% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −84.1% | +529% |
Exent’s data, largest peak‑to‑trough fall inside the crisis; the gain to recover is the arithmetic of the loss (see loss recovery math). A leveraged fund held through a recession needs the market to do far more than recover. More in how much leveraged ETFs lose in a crash.
Here is what the usual “safe” holdings returned over each window, from the close before to the window’s end:
| Fund | 2020 recession | 2022, no recession |
|---|---|---|
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | +14.8% | −31.2% |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | +7.1% | −16.2% |
| US bonds (AGG) | +2.8% | −15.0% |
| 1–3y Treasuries (SHY) | +2.4% | −4.5% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +0.3% | +0.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | +6.3% | −8.8% |
In the 2020 recession, long Treasuries (TLT) rose 14.8% and 7–10 year Treasuries 7.1%, as the Fed cut rates to near zero. Even they had a rough patch: TLT fell 15.7% between Mar 9 and Mar 18, 2020. Gold ended 6.3% higher after a 12.5% fall. In 2022 the same Treasuries lost 31.2% and 16.2%, and gold lost 8.8%. T‑bills (BIL) rose in both.
The lesson for a recession plan: Treasuries were a hedge against a slump with falling rates, not against every bear market. The one place that held in both was short‑term cash. Compare all four selloffs since 2018 in cash, T‑bills or bonds when you step aside.
This is the first month each fund closed back at its value from the start of the window (data through Sep 30, 2026):
| Back to its starting value | 2020 recession | 2022, no recession |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | Jun 2020 (4 mo.) | Dec 2023 (23 mo.) |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Apr 2020 (3 mo.) | Dec 2023 (23 mo.) |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | Aug 2020 (7 mo.) | Feb 2024 (26 mo.) |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | Nov 2020 (10 mo.) | Jun 2024 (29 mo.) |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | Jun 2020 (4 mo.) | Jul 2024 (30 mo.) |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | Feb 2020 (1 mo.) | Not by Sep 2026 |
| US bonds (AGG) | Mar 2020 (2 mo.) | Oct 2025 (45 mo.) |
| Gold (GLD) | Mar 2020 (2 mo.) | Jan 2023 (12 mo.) |
The 2020 recession was short and the rebound fast: SPY was back above its January value in June 2020, two months after the recession’s April trough. A 3× fund took until November. After 2022, SPY needed until December 2023, TQQQ until July 2024, and long Treasuries had still not recovered by September 2026. See also how long markets take to recover from a crash.
For savers near retirement, the order of losses matters as much as their size; see how to protect retirement savings from a crash. The episodes above are history and do not predict the next recession.
Stocks usually fall sharply and start recovering before the recession ends. In the 2020 recession the S&P 500 fund (SPY) fell 33.7% at its worst and was back above its January value by June 2020, while Treasuries rose and T-bills held steady.
In 2020 they did: long Treasuries (TLT) rose 14.8% from January to April. In the 2022 bear market, which came without a recession, they fell 31.2% alongside stocks. Bonds protected against a slump with falling rates, not against every fall.
They fall far more than the index. In 2020 the 2x S&P 500 fund SSO fell 59.3% and the 3x fund UPRO 76.8%; in the 2007–09 crisis SSO fell 85.5% and the 2x Nasdaq-100 fund QLD 84.1%, in Exent’s data.
In Exent’s data, short-term T-bills were the only holding on this page that gained in both the 2020 recession and the 2022 bear market. They earn little over long periods.
Usually. In 2020 the S&P 500 bottomed on March 23 while the recession, by NBER dates, ran until April, and the index was back at its record on August 18, 2020.
It varied. After 2020, SPY took about four months to regain its January value and the 3x fund UPRO until November 2020. After the 2022 bear market SPY needed until December 2023 and TQQQ until July 2024.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.