How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
ETFsInsight
IEF ETF vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (market value $41.4 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 26
Exent re-checks this page every day.
−1.5% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was −3.7%)
Key takeaways
- IEF returned −6.7% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was −0.62 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −17.0% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 7.7% and beta 0.26.
What is your own portfolio exposed to? Check it with Exent →
Did IEF beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) returned −6.7% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 82.6 percentage points, or −1.4% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | IEF | S&P 500 | IEF per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −1.5% | +12.0% | −1.5% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +14.5% | +87.4% | +4.6% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −6.7% | +75.9% | −1.4% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +5.6% | +316.3% | +0.6% | +15.3% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- IEF
- −1.5%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- IEF per year
- −1.5%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 3 years
- IEF
- +14.5%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- IEF per year
- +4.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Lagged
- 5 years
- IEF
- −6.7%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- IEF per year
- −1.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- IEF
- +5.6%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- IEF per year
- +0.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
Is IEF good for retirement?
IEF can be a core retirement holding. It is iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond. About 16 Treasuries with a 6.8-year duration at 0.15%: a classic stock-crash diversifier.
Pros
- Longer duration means larger gains when rates fall in a recession.
Cons
- Deeper losses when rates rise: a 20.4% worst drawdown over five years (Exent market data).
- 0.15% versus 0.03% for VGIT.
When it is the wrong choice: If inflation is your main worry: long nominal Treasuries are hurt most by it.
Similar ETFs to compare
| ETF | Expense ratio | Why consider it |
|---|---|---|
| IEF | 0.15% | this fund |
| VGIT | 0.03% | 3–10 year Treasuries, less rate risk |
| GOVT | 0.05% | all maturities |
Fits: Near retirement (your 60s). How to choose: Best ETFs for Retirement in 2026: How to Choose by Age and Situation.
Source: the benchmark, ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, and the fund’s mechanics were checked on the iShares (BlackRock) IEF fund page on Oct 25, 2026. Expense ratios are from the issuers; trailing returns quoted here are issuer NAV returns to September 30, 2026, and drawdowns, calendar-year returns and trailing yields are Exent market data (daily total return, distributions reinvested) over the same period. Educational, not a recommendation for your situation.
IEF returns by year vs the S&P 500
IEF beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | IEF | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −1.7% | +11.7% | −13.4% |
| 2025 | +8.0% | +17.7% | −9.7% |
| 2024 | −0.6% | +24.9% | −25.5% |
| 2023 | +3.6% | +26.2% | −22.6% |
| 2022 | −15.2% | −18.2% | +3.0% |
| 2021 | −3.3% | +28.7% | −32.0% |
| 2020 | +10.0% | +18.3% | −8.3% |
| 2019 | +8.0% | +31.2% | −23.2% |
| 2018 | +1.0% | −4.6% | +5.6% |
| 2017 | +2.6% | +21.7% | −19.1% |
IEF risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, IEF had a Sharpe ratio of −0.62 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 7.8% and its beta 0.26: it tended to move about 0.3× as much as the market.
| Metric | IEF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −1.4% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 7.8% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.62 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | −0.76 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −19.4% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.26 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How IEF behaved in past crashes
IEF’s deepest fall in the crises below was −17.0% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | IEF | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −7.1% | −56.5% | −$7,120 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −1.4% | −20.2% | −$1,430 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −4.7% | −34.1% | −$4,680 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −17.0% | −25.4% | −$17,000 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −1.7% | −19.0% | −$1,690 |
| Window | IEF max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −4.1% |
| Last 3 years | −7.7% |
| Last 5 years | −21.4% |
| Last 10 years | −27.7% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with IEF, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, IEF’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.52, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.45, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.94 and with gold (GLD) 0.36.
Adding a 5% IEF position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 14.9%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | −0.01 | MCO | 0.65 |
| CRWD | −0.01 | AMT | 0.60 |
| COP | 0.00 | HD | 0.57 |
| SCHW | 0.00 | PLD | 0.54 |
| DELL | 0.02 | SPGI | 0.54 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
The right benchmark for IEF
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For IEF that is AGG (US investment‑grade bonds). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other popular ETFs
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | SPAC and New Issue ETF | +455.5% | 8.3% |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares | +68.1% | 17.4% |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.8% |
| IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.9% |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +75.9% | 17.0% |
| 1557.T | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +78.6% | 20.7% |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total Intl Stock Idx Fund | +47.5% | 16.0% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | +84.3% | 22.3% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Holdings and weights are the fund’s latest published holdings; ETF overlap compares those holdings stock by stock.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what IEF does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, IEF included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with IEF and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
IEF can be a core retirement holding. It is iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond. About 16 Treasuries with a 6.8-year duration at 0.15%: a classic stock-crash diversifier. It is a poor fit if inflation is your main worry: long nominal Treasuries are hurt most by it.
IEF charges 0.15% a year. Lower-cost ETFs to compare: VGIT at 0.03% (3–10 year Treasuries, less rate risk); GOVT at 0.05% (all maturities). Expense ratios as of Oct 25, 2026 (issuer data where available, otherwise Exent market data); check that the exposure, not just the fee, matches what you want.
No. IEF returned +5.6% (+0.6% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
IEF fell −7.1% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
IEF fell −4.7% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
IEF fell −17.0% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, IEF’s Sharpe ratio was −0.62 and its Sortino ratio −0.76, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
IEF’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 7.7%, lower than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.26.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with IEF over the last 60 months were VLO (−0.01), CRWD (−0.01), COP (0.00). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.94 and with gold (GLD) 0.36.
Sources
- iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) fund page — iShares (BlackRock), Oct 25, 2026
What would IEF do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
Check my portfolioLimited offer$1.95 for unlimited checks· unlimited checks
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.