Each 2× and 3× fund’s largest fall in the last four selloffs, the gain each loss needed to recover, why choppy declines hurt more than straight ones, and whether a leveraged ETF can go to zero. With a leveraged‑fund check that updates every trading day.
Far more than the index, though a little less than their multiple suggests. In Exent’s data (Jul 2016 – Sep 2026), 2× funds lost about 1.8 to 1.9 times the index’s fall in each of the four selloffs since 2018, and 3× S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑100 funds about 2.3 to 2.6 times. In the 2020 COVID crash the S&P 500 fell 34.1% in 23 trading days; the 2× fund SSO lost 59.3% and the 3× fund UPRO 76.8%. In the 2022 bear market the 3× Nasdaq‑100 fund TQQQ lost 80.9% and the 3× chip fund SOXL 90.3%.
The multiple is not the real problem; the depth is. A fund that loses 77% needs to more than quadruple to get back to even. The SEC’s investor bulletin warns that holding these funds for longer than a day may expose investors to significant and sudden losses. For every way to limit crash losses, see the portfolio protection guide.
Data through the close of Oct 20, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 3.5%. The S&P 500 is 1.3% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 6.4% above its 200‑day average (+7.9% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 9.4% a year, calmer than 71% of trading days since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Oct 20, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Year‑to‑date return through Oct 20, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −2.4% | +21.6% | +26.2% | −3.1% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −3.7% | +29.5% | +39.3% | −5.1% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −7.2% | +27.2% | +33.9% | −11.1% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −10.7% | +33.8% | +50.9% | −19.3% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | −1.6% | +22.5% | +36.7% | −48.2% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −23.5% | +132.1% | +198.4% | −67.6% |
Last updated Oct 20, 2026. Members only.
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The S&P 500 fell between 19.0% and 34.1% in each of the four big selloffs since 2018 (price closes of the SPY fund):
| Selloff | S&P 500 peak | Trough | Fall | Back to the peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2018 selloff | Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −20.2% | Apr 29, 2019 |
| COVID crash, 2020 | Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −34.1% | Aug 18, 2020 |
| 2022 bear market | Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −25.4% | Jan 19, 2024 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −19.0% | Jun 27, 2025 |
Each fund’s own largest fall inside those four windows, dividends reinvested:
| Fund | Q4 2018 | COVID 2020 | 2022 bear | 2025 tariffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −19.3% | −33.7% | −24.5% | −18.8% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −36.5% | −59.3% | −46.7% | −35.1% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −50.3% | −76.8% | −63.9% | −48.9% |
| 3× S&P 500 (SPXL) | −50.2% | −76.9% | −63.8% | −48.9% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −22.8% | −28.6% | −34.8% | −22.8% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −42.3% | −51.7% | −63.1% | −41.8% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −57.9% | −69.9% | −80.9% | −56.7% |
| 3× Semiconductors (SOXL) | −60.9% | −80.4% | −90.3% | −73.9% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | −63.3% | −84.8% | −67.5% | −58.3% |
The two 3× S&P 500 funds, UPRO and SPXL, lost almost exactly the same. Funds on narrower, more volatile indexes lost the most: the 3× small‑cap fund TNA fell 84.8% in the COVID crash, and SOXL lost more than half in all four selloffs. In share‑price terms, Yahoo Finance coverage (24/7 Wall St., May 2026) traced TQQQ from $40.82 to $8.30 over calendar 2022.
The window starts in 2016, so it holds no 2008. In the 2007–09 crisis the 2× S&P 500 fund SSO fell 85.5% and the 2× Nasdaq‑100 fund QLD 84.1% in the same data; TQQQ did not launch until 2010.
The gain needed grows much faster than the loss: a 50% fall needs a 100% gain, an 82% fall needs 455.6%. Each row is exact arithmetic, next to a real fall of about that size.
| Fall | Gain needed to get back to even | A real fall of about that size |
|---|---|---|
| −20% | +25.0% | S&P 500, Q4 2018 (−20.2%) |
| −34% | +51.5% | S&P 500, COVID 2020 (−34.1%) |
| −50% | +100.0% | QLD (2×), COVID 2020 (−51.7%) |
| −60% | +150.0% | SSO (2×), COVID 2020 (−59.3%) |
| −77% | +334.8% | UPRO (3×), COVID 2020 (−76.8%) |
| −82% | +455.6% | TQQQ (3×), Nov 2021 – Dec 2022 (−81.6%) |
| −90% | +900.0% | SOXL (3×), Dec 2021 – Oct 2022 (−90.5%) |
| −100% | No recovery: the money is gone | None in this study |
In this window the rebounds did come, at very different speeds. After the 2020 crash SSO regained its high by Sep 2, 2020 and UPRO by Jan 8, 2021. After 2022, TQQQ needed until Jul 10, 2024 and SOXL until Feb 25, 2026, more than four years after its peak. See loss recovery math and can you hold TQQQ long term.
Because each day’s move is applied to whatever the fund has left after the day before (the daily reset). In a steady fall, each loss lands on a smaller base, so the fund loses less than its multiple suggests. In a choppy market, every up‑and‑down round trip leaves it lower, even when the index ends near where it started. That drag is volatility drag.
TQQQ’s summary prospectus (ProShares, Sep 2026) shows the effect over one hypothetical year:
| Index over one year | 3× the index | Fund: index volatility 10% | At 25% | At 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +10% | +30% | +29.2% | +10.3% | −37.1% |
| 0% | 0% | −3.0% | −17.1% | −52.8% |
| −20% | −60% | −50.3% | −57.6% | −75.8% |
| Index over one year | +10% | 0% | −20% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3× the index | +30% | 0% | −60% |
| Fund: index volatility 10% | +29.2% | −3.0% | −50.3% |
| At 25% | +10.3% | −17.1% | −57.6% |
| At 50% | −37.1% | −52.8% | −75.8% |
The issuer’s figures assume no dividends, fees or borrowing costs. For scale, it put the Nasdaq‑100’s volatility over the five years to May 2026 at 22.6% a year. The real record agrees: in choppy 2018 QQQ ended flat (−0.1%) while TQQQ lost 19.7%, and the S&P 500 fund SPY lost 4.6% while UPRO lost 25.1%. In 2022, a long fall with sharp rallies along the way, QQQ lost 32.6% and TQQQ 79.0%.
In principle, yes. A 3× fund loses about 3% for every 1% its index falls in a day, so a one‑day index fall of about a third would wipe out the fund before the next reset. A 2× fund would need a one‑day fall of half. The TQQQ prospectus says that if the Nasdaq‑100 approaches a 33% loss at any point in the day, “you could lose your entire investment.”
Nothing close happened in this window: the S&P 500’s worst day since mid‑2016 was −10.9%, on Mar 16, 2020. The realistic path toward zero is slower: a long, volatile decline that leaves too little to recover. SOXL lost 90.5% from Dec 2021 to Oct 2022. The −3× Nasdaq‑100 fund SQQQ lost more than 99.9% of its value over the whole period, because the index it bets against rose; inverse funds decay the same way (see inverse ETFs for hedging).
That is why investors who hold leveraged funds through crashes usually decide in advance how much they can lose, and when they will step aside: see when it is safe to hold leveraged ETFs.
In the four selloffs since 2018, 2x funds lost about 1.8 to 1.9 times the index’s fall and 3x S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 funds about 2.3 to 2.6 times. That meant falls of 35% to 63% for 2x funds and 49% to 81% for those 3x funds.
It lost 79.0% in calendar 2022, against 32.6% for QQQ, in Exent’s data. Its full fall from the November 2021 high to the December 2022 low was 81.6%.
UPRO, a 3x S&P 500 fund, lost 76.8% between February 19 and March 23, 2020, while the S&P 500 fell 34.1%. It got back to its February 2020 high in January 2021.
In principle, yes. A 3x fund would be wiped out by a one-day index fall of about a third, and TQQQ’s prospectus says so. The S&P 500’s worst day from mid-2016 to September 2026 was a 10.9% fall.
They reset daily, so each day’s move compounds on the previous day’s result, and swings up and down leave the fund lower even when the index ends near where it started. In 2018 QQQ was flat while TQQQ lost 19.7%.
It varied. After the 2020 crash SSO regained its high in September 2020 and UPRO in January 2021. After 2022, TQQQ needed until July 2024 and SOXL until February 2026.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.