When Should You Step Aside From the Stock Market?
The four kinds of step‑aside triggers investors use, what each one missed, and why every exit needs a re‑entry rule. With a market risk check that updates every trading day.
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Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? What This Week’s Data Says
Nobody can date a crash. What you can measure is how stretched and how stressed the market is this week, and how often falls of 5%, 10% and 20% have happened. Both are below, with a risk check that updates every trading day.
Key takeaways
- Nobody can reliably predict when a crash will come. What can be measured is how stretched and stressed the market is now (the risk check on this page, updated every trading day) and how often big falls have happened.
- Falls are common. From Jul 2016 to Sep 2026 the S&P 500 had 13 dips of 5% or more and five declines of 10% or more, about one every two years on average, in Exent’s data.
- Four of those five went to 19% or deeper: late 2018 (−20.2%), 2020 (−34.1%), 2022 (−25.4%) and 2025 (−19.0%). Getting back to the old high took from about four months to two years.
- Warning signs come early, late or not at all. Investors watch four kinds of conditions together: the price trend, how stretched valuations are, recession risk and investor mood.
- A plan does more than a prediction: decide in advance what you hold, what would make you reduce risk, and how you would get back in.
Is a stock market crash coming?
No one can tell you when the next crash will come, and anyone who claims to know the date is guessing. Big falls rarely announce themselves. The S&P 500 fell 34.1% in 23 trading days in 2020. In April 2025, after the tariff announcement, it fell about 12% within four days (AP, via Yahoo Finance). Neither fall was on most calendars a month earlier.
What you can measure is the state of the market today: how far it sits from its record, whether its trend is up or down, and how rough its daily swings are. You can also measure how often falls of each size have happened. The risk check below covers the first; the tables after it cover the second. For the full set of protection tools, start at portfolio protection.
This week’s market risk check
Data through the close of Oct 19, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 3.7%. The S&P 500 is 1.6% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 6.1% above its 200‑day average (+8.0% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 9.6% a year, calmer than 70% of trading days since 2016.
The S&P 500 vs its 200‑day average
Daily closes over the last year, through Oct 19, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
−1.6%from its record closeRecord: Oct 6, 2026
+6.1%vs its 200‑day averageA week earlier: +8.0%
9.6%20‑day volatility (a year)Median since 2016: 12.2%
−1.5%last five trading daysNasdaq‑100: −3.7%
The three big US index funds
Through Oct 19, 2026. “vs 200‑day avg.” = how far the close sits above or below its 200‑day average.
| Index fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | From its high | vs 200‑day avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −1.5% | +12.7% | −1.6% | +6.1% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −3.7% | +17.1% | −5.4% | +7.0% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | −2.4% | +10.4% | −11.1% | −1.8% |
| Index fund | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Russell 2000 (IWM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 days | −1.5% | −3.7% | −2.4% |
| Year to date | +12.7% | +17.1% | +10.4% |
| From its high | −1.6% | −5.4% | −11.1% |
| vs 200‑day avg. | +6.1% | +7.0% | −1.8% |
Leveraged funds this year: the fund vs its multiple
Year‑to‑date return through Oct 19, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −3.1% | +20.8% | +25.4% | −3.7% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −4.6% | +28.4% | +38.1% | −6.0% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −7.5% | +27.5% | +34.2% | −10.9% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −11.3% | +34.2% | +51.3% | −19.0% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | −7.4% | +16.8% | +31.2% | −50.6% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −23.2% | +134.7% | +200.3% | −67.2% |
- 2× S&P 500 (SSO)
- Last 5 days
- −3.1%
- Year to date
- +20.8%
- Multiple × index
- +25.4%
- From its high
- −3.7%
- 3× S&P 500 (UPRO)
- Last 5 days
- −4.6%
- Year to date
- +28.4%
- Multiple × index
- +38.1%
- From its high
- −6.0%
- 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD)
- Last 5 days
- −7.5%
- Year to date
- +27.5%
- Multiple × index
- +34.2%
- From its high
- −10.9%
- 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ)
- Last 5 days
- −11.3%
- Year to date
- +34.2%
- Multiple × index
- +51.3%
- From its high
- −19.0%
- 3× Russell 2000 (TNA)
- Last 5 days
- −7.4%
- Year to date
- +16.8%
- Multiple × index
- +31.2%
- From its high
- −50.6%
- 3× chip stocks (SOXL)
- Last 5 days
- −23.2%
- Year to date
- +134.7%
- Multiple × index
- +200.3%
- From its high
- −67.2%
Where money goes when investors step aside
Returns through Oct 19, 2026, dividends and interest included.
| Asset | Last 5 days | 1 month | Year to date | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T‑bills, 1–3 months (BIL) | +0.1% | +0.1% | +1.4% | +2.3% |
| Treasuries, 1–3 years (SHY) | +0.2% | −0.1% | −0.7% | +0.3% |
| Treasuries, 7–10 years (IEF) | +0.7% | −1.0% | −5.1% | −4.4% |
| Treasuries, 20+ years (TLT) | +1.8% | −1.7% | −7.5% | −8.6% |
| US bond market (AGG) | +0.5% | −0.9% | −3.5% | −2.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | −0.6% | −4.8% | −4.2% | +3.7% |
| Min‑volatility stocks (USMV) | +0.5% | +1.7% | +8.0% | +7.2% |
| −1× S&P 500 (SH) | +1.6% | −0.9% | −9.9% | −10.7% |
- T‑bills, 1–3 months (BIL)
- Last 5 days
- +0.1%
- 1 month
- +0.1%
- Year to date
- +1.4%
- 1 year
- +2.3%
- Treasuries, 1–3 years (SHY)
- Last 5 days
- +0.2%
- 1 month
- −0.1%
- Year to date
- −0.7%
- 1 year
- +0.3%
- Treasuries, 7–10 years (IEF)
- Last 5 days
- +0.7%
- 1 month
- −1.0%
- Year to date
- −5.1%
- 1 year
- −4.4%
- Treasuries, 20+ years (TLT)
- Last 5 days
- +1.8%
- 1 month
- −1.7%
- Year to date
- −7.5%
- 1 year
- −8.6%
- US bond market (AGG)
- Last 5 days
- +0.5%
- 1 month
- −0.9%
- Year to date
- −3.5%
- 1 year
- −2.8%
- Gold (GLD)
- Last 5 days
- −0.6%
- 1 month
- −4.8%
- Year to date
- −4.2%
- 1 year
- +3.7%
- Min‑volatility stocks (USMV)
- Last 5 days
- +0.5%
- 1 month
- +1.7%
- Year to date
- +8.0%
- 1 year
- +7.2%
- −1× S&P 500 (SH)
- Last 5 days
- +1.6%
- 1 month
- −0.9%
- Year to date
- −9.9%
- 1 year
- −10.7%
Exent macro regime score, today
Last updated Oct 19, 2026. Members only.
| Exent regime pillar | Today |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | |
| Credit stress | |
| Economic cycle | |
| Sentiment | |
| Regime: Risk ON · Neutral · Risk OFF |
Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
How often does the stock market fall 10% or more?
About once every two years on average, though not on a schedule. A 10% fall from a record is usually called a correction and a 20% fall a bear market, as Benzinga’s explainer sets out. In Exent’s data (Jul 2016 – Sep 2026), the S&P 500 had 13 dips of 5% or more and five declines of 10% or more. Here are the five, from the record close to the low and back:
| Peak | Trough | Fall | Back to the peak | Trading days, peak to recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Apr 2, 2018 | −10.2% | Aug 24, 2018 | 146 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −20.2% | Apr 29, 2019 | 150 |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −34.1% | Aug 18, 2020 | 126 |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −25.4% | Jan 19, 2024 | 513 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −19.0% | Jun 27, 2025 | 89 |
- Jan 26, 2018
- Trough
- Apr 2, 2018
- Fall
- −10.2%
- Back to the peak
- Aug 24, 2018
- Trading days, peak to recovery
- 146
- Sep 20, 2018
- Trough
- Dec 24, 2018
- Fall
- −20.2%
- Back to the peak
- Apr 29, 2019
- Trading days, peak to recovery
- 150
- Feb 19, 2020
- Trough
- Mar 23, 2020
- Fall
- −34.1%
- Back to the peak
- Aug 18, 2020
- Trading days, peak to recovery
- 126
- Jan 3, 2022
- Trough
- Oct 12, 2022
- Fall
- −25.4%
- Back to the peak
- Jan 19, 2024
- Trading days, peak to recovery
- 513
- Feb 19, 2025
- Trough
- Apr 8, 2025
- Fall
- −19.0%
- Back to the peak
- Jun 27, 2025
- Trading days, peak to recovery
- 89
They came in clusters. Three started between January 2018 and February 2020, then none between the 2022 bear market and February 2025. Recovery times ranged from 89 trading days, about four months, to 513 trading days, about two years. A dip of 5% or more came more than once a year on average, so it is part of normal investing rather than a warning by itself. More history is in how often the market crashes.
What are the warning signs of a stock market crash?
There is no single warning sign. Investors watch four kinds of conditions and pay most attention when several point the same way. None of them dates a crash; together they describe how fragile the market is.
| What to watch | What it tells you | Its blind spot | Read more |
|---|---|---|---|
| The price trend | Whether the index is rising or falling, and how rough its swings are | Reacts after a fall starts | Bull or bear market? |
| How stretched valuations are | How much investors pay for each dollar of profit, and how much rests on a few giant companies | Expensive markets can get more expensive for years | Are we in a bubble? |
| Recession risk | Whether the economy is slowing toward a downturn that would hit profits | Warnings can come a year early, or never be followed | Recession indicators |
| Investor mood | Whether investors are euphoric or panicked | Moods can stay extreme for a long time | Market sentiment |
One structural point is worth knowing. When a large share of the S&P 500 rests on a handful of giant companies, a fall in those few can pull the whole index down: see S&P 500 concentration. That raises the stakes of a selloff in big tech. It does not tell you when one will start.
Why are crash predictions so often wrong?
Because warnings arrive early, and acting on them costs the rebounds. Markets often keep rising for months or years after the first loud crash calls. When a fall does come, the strongest days tend to come in the middle of it. In April 2025 the S&P 500 rose more than 9.5% in one day, its best day since 2008 (Yahoo Finance), a week after the tariff announcement that set off the fall.
Exent’s data shows the cost. Missing the 10 best days from mid‑2016 to September 2026 cut the S&P 500’s return from 15.2% to 8.2% a year, and 8 of those 10 best days came within two weeks of one of the 10 worst. An investor who sells on a prediction has to be right twice: on the way out and on the way back in.
What can you do instead of predicting a crash?
Prepare for a fall of a known size instead of guessing its date. Investors who come through crashes in good shape usually decided these things in advance:
- How many dollars the portfolio would lose in a replay of 2020 or 2022, and whether that loss is one you could sit through.
- How much cash you need over the next one to two years, held outside stocks so a fall never forces a sale.
- What you hold when conditions are supportive, mixed or deteriorating, written as exposure levels rather than all‑in or all‑out.
- What would make you reduce risk, and what would bring you back in, decided before the selloff.
The step‑by‑step version is in how to write a market crash plan. For the exit decision itself, see when to step aside from the market. Nothing on this page is a forecast or personal advice.
Read the backdrop every day with Exent
- Exent Predictive Market Intelligence publishes a daily macro regime score (Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF) from four pillars: liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment.
- Members get an alert when the regime changes, a daily macro briefing with cited sources and an events calendar.
- Portfolio analysis replays your own holdings through 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 and shows the loss in dollars. Upload a screenshot, CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet; no brokerage login.
Frequently asked questions
No one can say when the next crash will come, and forecasts of one are often early. What can be measured is how stretched and stressed the market is now, and how often falls have happened: from mid-2016 to September 2026 the S&P 500 had five declines of 10% or more.
Nobody can date a crash a year or more ahead. Declines of 10% or more came about once every two years on average from 2016 to 2026, but in clusters, with gaps of up to three years between them.
A one-week forecast is not possible. The risk check on this page shows where the S&P 500 stands against its record and its 200-day average and how rough its swings are, updated every trading day. It describes conditions, not what happens next.
Investors watch four kinds of conditions together: the price trend, how stretched valuations are, recession risk and investor mood. Warnings often come early or not at all, and sudden shocks can arrive without them.
Selling everything on a forecast has a poor record, because the best days tend to come during selloffs: missing the 10 best days from mid-2016 to 2026 cut the S&P 500’s return from 15.2% to 8.2% a year. Many investors use a written plan with partial steps instead.
In the five declines of 10% or more from mid-2016 to 2026, the S&P 500 took from 89 to 513 trading days to get back to its old high, about four months to two years from the peak.
Know when to hold the index, and when to step aside.
Market Intelligence reads the market regime and tells you whether the backdrop favors taking risk or protecting capital.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.