How Do Fed Rate Cuts Affect Stocks?
Rate cuts are not automatically good for stocks. What matters is why the Federal Reserve is cutting. Here is what happened after past first cuts, with and without a recession, and how cuts reach share prices.
ResourcesInsight
How Does the Stock Market React to the Jobs Report?
Every monthly jobs report since 2015: how far the S&P 500, the Nasdaq‑100 and long Treasuries moved on release day, what beats and misses did, the biggest jobs‑day moves, and how jobs day compares with CPI, Fed and other release days.
Key takeaways
- On an average jobs‑report day since 2015, the S&P 500 fund (SPY) moved 0.86% up or down, about 1.2 times the move of a normal trading day (0.73%); it closed higher on 54% of 138 release days (Exent market data as of Oct 20, 2026).
- When payrolls beat the forecast (78 times), SPY moved +0.16% on average; when they missed (58 times), −0.09%: the direction of the surprise said little about the direction of stocks.
- The biggest jobs‑day move since 2015 was −5.85% for SPY on Apr 4, 2025 (March jobs report: +228k jobs against +135k expected); on 4 of the 10 biggest jobs days with a surprise, stocks moved the opposite way (a beat with a fall, or a miss with a rise).
- By average S&P 500 move, jobs day ranks number 2 of 7 major US releases: Fed decision days 0.92%, jobs days 0.86%, CPI days 0.80%.
- The latest report, on Oct 2, 2026, showed +29k jobs against +90k expected; SPY rose 0.74% and QQQ rose 1.02%.
How does the stock market react to the jobs report?
On an average jobs day, the S&P 500 fund (SPY) moves 0.86%, up or down: about 1.2 times the move of a normal trading day (0.73%). That is the average of 138 monthly reports since Jan 2015; SPY closed higher on 54% of them. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, usually on the first Friday of the month, before the market opens, so the whole trading day is the reaction. Most jobs days are quiet; the averages are lifted by a few days when the report changed what investors expected from the Federal Reserve.
Recent jobs reports: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 on the day
Price change from the close before to the close of the release day, last 8 reports. The report comes out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the open, so the day is the full reaction.
Do stocks go up when the jobs report beats expectations?
Not reliably. On the 78 days payrolls came in above the forecast, SPY moved +0.16% on average; on the 58 days below it, −0.09%. On 4 of the 10 biggest jobs‑day moves with a surprise, stocks went the opposite way to the surprise. A strong report is good for the economy but can mean higher interest rates for longer, which lowers what investors pay for future profits; a weak one can raise hopes of rate cuts or fears of a slowdown. Which one wins depends on whether the Fed is fighting inflation or supporting growth at the time. See Fed rate cuts and stocks.
| Payrolls vs forecast | Release days | S&P 500, average move |
|---|---|---|
| Above the forecast | 78 | +0.16% |
| Below the forecast | 58 | −0.09% |
| In line or no forecast | 2 | — |
What were the biggest stock market moves on jobs day?
The largest was −5.85% for SPY on Apr 4, 2025. The 10 largest S&P 500 moves on jobs days since 2015, with payrolls against the forecast (thousands of jobs) and what the Nasdaq‑100 and long Treasuries did. Several fell on days with other big news: April 4, 2025 came two days after the April 2025 tariff announcement, and the 2020 dates fell in the pandemic crash and rebound, so the report was not the only driver.
| Release day | Jobs added vs forecast | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Long Treasuries (TLT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | +228k vs +135k | −5.85% | −6.21% | +1.09% |
| Jan 4, 2019 | +312k vs +177k | +3.35% | +4.28% | −1.16% |
| Oct 7, 2022 | +263k vs +250k | −2.79% | −3.81% | −0.97% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +172k vs +85k | −2.58% | −4.80% | −0.52% |
| Jun 5, 2020 | +2,509k vs −8,000k | +2.56% | +1.98% | −0.72% |
| Dec 7, 2018 | +155k vs +200k | −2.32% | −3.30% | +0.19% |
| Jan 6, 2023 | +223k vs +200k | +2.29% | +2.76% | +1.84% |
| Apr 6, 2018 | +103k vs +193k | −2.23% | −2.50% | +1.10% |
| Feb 2, 2018 | +200k vs +180k | −2.17% | −1.99% | −0.94% |
| Dec 4, 2015 | +211k vs +200k | +1.95% | +2.33% | +0.87% |
- Apr 4, 2025
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +228k vs +135k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −5.85%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −6.21%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +1.09%
- Jan 4, 2019
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +312k vs +177k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +3.35%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +4.28%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −1.16%
- Oct 7, 2022
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +263k vs +250k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.79%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −3.81%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.97%
- Jun 5, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +172k vs +85k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.58%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −4.80%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.52%
- Jun 5, 2020
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +2,509k vs −8,000k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +2.56%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +1.98%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.72%
- Dec 7, 2018
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +155k vs +200k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.32%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −3.30%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.19%
- Jan 6, 2023
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +223k vs +200k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +2.29%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +2.76%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +1.84%
- Apr 6, 2018
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +103k vs +193k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.23%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −2.50%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +1.10%
- Feb 2, 2018
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +200k vs +180k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.17%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −1.99%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.94%
- Dec 4, 2015
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +211k vs +200k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +1.95%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +2.33%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.87%
How did the market react to the latest jobs reports?
The latest, the September jobs report released Oct 2, 2026, showed +29k jobs against +90k expected; SPY rose 0.74%. The last 12 reports, newest first. Release dates can move, for example when a government shutdown delays the data.
| Release day | Jobs added vs forecast | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Long Treasuries (TLT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | +29k vs +90k | +0.74% | +1.02% | −0.30% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | +162k vs +56k | −0.39% | +0.18% | +0.17% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | −23k vs +80k | +0.61% | +1.17% | +0.29% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +57k vs +110k | −0.13% | −1.73% | −0.01% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +172k vs +85k | −2.58% | −4.80% | −0.52% |
| May 8, 2026 | +115k vs +62k | +0.83% | +2.34% | +0.50% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | −92k vs +59k | −1.31% | −1.50% | −0.37% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | +130k vs +70k | −0.02% | +0.27% | −0.53% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | +50k vs +60k | +0.66% | +1.00% | +0.66% |
| Dec 16, 2025 | −105k vs +55k | −0.27% | +0.20% | +0.54% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | +119k vs +50k | −1.53% | −2.37% | +0.40% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | +22k vs +75k | −0.29% | +0.15% | +1.52% |
- Oct 2, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +29k vs +90k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +0.74%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +1.02%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.30%
- Sep 4, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +162k vs +56k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −0.39%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +0.18%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.17%
- Aug 7, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- −23k vs +80k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +0.61%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +1.17%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.29%
- Jul 2, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +57k vs +110k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −0.13%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −1.73%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.01%
- Jun 5, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +172k vs +85k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.58%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −4.80%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.52%
- May 8, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +115k vs +62k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +0.83%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +2.34%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.50%
- Mar 6, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- −92k vs +59k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.31%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −1.50%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.37%
- Feb 11, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +130k vs +70k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −0.02%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +0.27%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.53%
- Jan 9, 2026
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +50k vs +60k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- +0.66%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +1.00%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.66%
- Dec 16, 2025
- Jobs added vs forecast
- −105k vs +55k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −0.27%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +0.20%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.54%
- Nov 20, 2025
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +119k vs +50k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.53%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- −2.37%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.40%
- Sep 5, 2025
- Jobs added vs forecast
- +22k vs +75k
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −0.29%
- Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ)
- +0.15%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +1.52%
Which economic releases move the stock market most?
By average S&P 500 move on the day, Fed decision days lead (0.92%), followed by jobs days (0.86%) and CPI days (0.80%); an ordinary trading day averages 0.73%. The differences are small: on most release days the market moves only a little more than usual, and what matters is the surprise and the moment. Inflation reports mattered most in 2022, when the Fed was raising rates fast. Day‑by‑day detail: the stock market on CPI days and the stock market on Fed days.
| Release | Release days | Since | S&P 500, average move | Closed higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate decision | 83 | Jul 2016 | 0.92% | 43% |
| Jobs report (payrolls) | 138 | Jan 2015 | 0.86% | 54% |
| CPI (consumer prices) | 123 | Jul 2016 | 0.80% | 57% |
| Core PPI (producer prices) | 141 | Jan 2015 | 0.78% | 53% |
| Core PCE inflation | 137 | Feb 2015 | 0.77% | 53% |
| Retail sales | 141 | Jan 2015 | 0.72% | 49% |
| GDP | 45 | Jan 2015 | 0.72% | 53% |
| All trading days | 2,583 | Jul 2016 | 0.73% | 55% |
- Fed rate decision
- Release days
- 83
- Since
- Jul 2016
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.92%
- Closed higher
- 43%
- Jobs report (payrolls)
- Release days
- 138
- Since
- Jan 2015
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.86%
- Closed higher
- 54%
- CPI (consumer prices)
- Release days
- 123
- Since
- Jul 2016
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.80%
- Closed higher
- 57%
- Core PPI (producer prices)
- Release days
- 141
- Since
- Jan 2015
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.78%
- Closed higher
- 53%
- Core PCE inflation
- Release days
- 137
- Since
- Feb 2015
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.77%
- Closed higher
- 53%
- Retail sales
- Release days
- 141
- Since
- Jan 2015
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.72%
- Closed higher
- 49%
- GDP
- Release days
- 45
- Since
- Jan 2015
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.72%
- Closed higher
- 53%
- All trading days
- Release days
- 2,583
- Since
- Jul 2016
- S&P 500, average move
- 0.73%
- Closed higher
- 55%
Method and caveats
- Releases: nonfarm payrolls, CPI and PPI (Bureau of Labor Statistics), core PCE and GDP (Bureau of Economic Analysis), retail sales (Census Bureau); release dates and consensus forecasts from the US economic calendar, jobs reports since Jan 9, 2015. Data as of Oct 20, 2026.
- Move = price change of the fund from the close before to the close of the release day (Exent market data, dividends included). SPY = S&P 500, QQQ = Nasdaq‑100, TLT = 20+ year Treasuries.
- Above / below the forecast compares the first published number with the consensus forecast; later revisions are not used.
- CPI and Fed decision days and the all‑days baseline run from Jul 2016, from the CPI and Fed day pages. Some days carry more than one release; each counts that day.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
How Exent helps you through jobs days
- Exent Predictive Market Intelligence has an events calendar with every scheduled release and a daily macro briefing with cited sources.
- Its daily macro regime score (Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF) reads four pillars: liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment, and members get an alert when the regime changes.
- Six model allocations show how exposure can follow the regime, including a 2× model that uses leverage only in Risk ON.
Frequently asked questions
Across 138 monthly jobs reports since Jan 2015, the S&P 500 fund (SPY) moved 0.86% on an average release day, up or down, against 0.73% on a normal trading day, and closed higher on 54% of them. Exent market data as of Oct 20, 2026.
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, usually on the first Friday of the month, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the Employment Situation report). That is before the stock market opens, so the whole trading day reacts to it.
Not reliably. On the 78 days payrolls beat the forecast, SPY averaged +0.16%; on the 58 days they missed, −0.09%. A strong report can lift stocks on growth hopes or push them down on fears of higher interest rates.
−5.85% for the S&P 500 fund on Apr 4, 2025, the day of the March jobs report (+228k jobs against +135k expected), two days after the April 2025 tariff announcement. QQQ moved −6.21% that day.
By average S&P 500 move on the day: Fed decision days 0.92%, jobs days 0.86%, CPI days 0.80%, core PPI days 0.78%, core PCE days 0.77%, retail sales days 0.72%, GDP days 0.72%, against 0.73% on all trading days. The periods differ slightly (CPI and Fed days since Jul 2016, the others since 2015).
The September jobs report, released Oct 2, 2026, showed +29k jobs against +90k expected. SPY moved +0.74%, QQQ +1.02% and long Treasuries (TLT) −0.30% that day.
Know what the next release could do.
Exent Market intel reads liquidity, credit, the cycle and sentiment every day, with an events calendar, a briefing and an alert when the regime changes.
Explore Market IntelligenceLimited offer67% off your first month
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.