Every monthly inflation report since mid‑2016: what the S&P 500, the Nasdaq‑100, leveraged ETFs and long Treasuries did on the day and over the next week, the years when CPI day mattered most, and the biggest CPI‑day moves. Updated after every release.
Market risk reading, cross‑asset context and an events calendar: see Exent →
It depends on the surprise and on how much inflation matters at the time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index once a month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern (7:30 a.m. Central on the St. Louis Fed’s release calendar), before the stock market opens. So the move from the previous close to the CPI‑day close is the market’s full first reaction. When inflation is driving Fed decisions, as in 2022 and again in 2026, the number can move stocks and bonds a lot.
The latest example: on Oct 14, 2026 the report showed prices up 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% economists expected (Benzinga). This page tracks every release from mid‑2016 onward, from the St. Louis Fed’s archive of CPI release dates (there was no release in November 2025). It updates after each one and is part of the portfolio protection guide.
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. Across the 123 CPI releases from Jul 2016 to Oct 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) moved 0.80% on an average CPI day, up or down: close to a normal trading day (0.73%). It closed higher on 57% of them, against 55% of all trading days. The 3× Nasdaq‑100 fund TQQQ moved 3.10% on an average CPI day; its worst was −16.5% and its best +21.9%.
Price change from the close before to the close of the release day: the chart shows the last 8, the table the last 12. CPI comes out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the open, so the day is the full reaction.
| Release day | S&P 500, day | Nasdaq‑100, day | TQQQ, day | S&P 500, 5 days | TQQQ, 5 days | Long Treasuries, day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | −1.1% | −2.0% | −6.0% | −1.1% | −10.7% | +0.7% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +0.8% | +0.9% | +2.6% | +0.6% | +3.1% | +0.1% |
| Aug 12, 2026 | +0.3% | +0.7% | +2.1% | −0.4% | −0.7% | −0.1% |
| Jul 14, 2026 | +0.4% | +1.1% | +3.3% | −0.9% | −6.9% | +0.1% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | −1.6% | −2.0% | −6.0% | +1.8% | +8.4% | −0.3% |
| May 12, 2026 | −0.1% | −0.8% | −2.6% | −0.1% | −3.4% | −0.7% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | −0.1% | +0.1% | +0.4% | +3.2% | +15.3% | −0.2% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | −0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1% | −0.9% | −2.5% | −1.3% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +1.2% | +3.7% | +0.6% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.5% | −2.5% | −9.2% | +0.2% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | +0.8% | +1.4% | +4.3% | +2.8% | +12.1% | +0.5% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | +0.8% | +1.1% | +3.1% | +1.2% | +7.3% | 0.0% |
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 3.1% above its 200‑day average (+5.2% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 11.3% a year, about normal for the period since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Nov 2, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Year‑to‑date return through Nov 2, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −3.5% | +16.4% | +22.3% | −7.4% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −5.4% | +20.9% | +33.5% | −11.6% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −8.8% | +14.2% | +22.5% | −20.3% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −13.1% | +13.5% | +33.7% | −31.5% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | +2.1% | +26.7% | +42.5% | −46.4% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −24.7% | +62.3% | +152.7% | −77.3% |
Last updated Nov 2, 2026. Members only.
| Exent regime pillar | Today |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | |
| Credit stress | |
| Economic cycle | |
| Sentiment | |
| Regime: Risk ON · Neutral · Risk OFF |
Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
| Fund | Average move, CPI days | Average move, all days | Closed higher, CPI days | Closed higher, all days | Worst CPI day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 0.80% | 0.73% | 57% | 55% | −4.9% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | 1.04% | 0.97% | 60% | 56% | −5.5% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | 1.56% | 1.44% | 56% | 54% | −10.0% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | 2.33% | 2.16% | 55% | 54% | −14.8% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | 2.07% | 1.94% | 59% | 56% | −11.0% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | 3.10% | 2.89% | 59% | 55% | −16.5% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | 0.82% | 0.69% | 55% | 50% | −3.7% |
Over the whole period the difference between a CPI day and a normal day is modest. For leveraged funds every move is multiplied: TQQQ and UPRO move about three times as much as the index on release days, as on any other day, so a small change for the index is a large swing for them. Long Treasuries (TLT) react too, because inflation erodes the fixed payments bonds make. More on bonds and inflation in how inflation affects your portfolio.
| Year | CPI releases | S&P 500, average move on CPI days | S&P 500, average move, all days | TQQQ, average move on CPI days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 6 | 0.52% | 0.42% | 1.30% |
| 2017 | 12 | 0.34% | 0.31% | 1.57% |
| 2018 | 12 | 0.82% | 0.75% | 3.11% |
| 2019 | 12 | 0.41% | 0.57% | 1.58% |
| 2020 | 12 | 1.08% | 1.33% | 3.49% |
| 2021 | 12 | 0.59% | 0.63% | 2.40% |
| 2022 | 12 | 1.94% | 1.20% | 7.41% |
| 2023 | 12 | 0.63% | 0.65% | 2.79% |
| 2024 | 12 | 0.73% | 0.59% | 3.32% |
| 2025 | 11 | 1.08% | 0.75% | 3.75% |
| 2026 (to Nov 2026) | 10 | 0.47% | 0.63% | 2.40% |
2022 stands out; the Fed raised rates seven times that year. On Sep 13, 2022 the S&P 500 fund fell 4.3% and TQQQ 16.5% on the report; on Nov 10, 2022 they rose 5.5% and 21.9%, the best CPI day in the data. What that year did to whole portfolios is in what happens when the Fed raises rates.
| Release day | S&P 500, day | TQQQ, day | S&P 500, 5 days | TQQQ, 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2022 | +5.5% | +21.9% | +5.7% | +25.2% |
| Mar 11, 2020 | −4.9% | −12.9% | −12.3% | −38.8% |
| Apr 10, 2025 | −4.4% | −12.3% | −4.2% | −13.9% |
| Sep 13, 2022 | −4.3% | −16.5% | −5.5% | −18.6% |
| Jun 10, 2022 | −2.9% | −10.7% | −8.7% | −27.1% |
| Oct 13, 2022 | +2.6% | +6.6% | +3.4% | +8.0% |
| Oct 11, 2018 | −2.2% | −4.0% | +0.8% | +9.2% |
| May 12, 2021 | −2.1% | −7.6% | −0.6% | −3.3% |
Not every big CPI day was about CPI. Mar 11, 2020 fell in the middle of the COVID crash, and Apr 10, 2025 came the day after the tariff‑pause rally of Apr 9. Separating the release from the rest of the news is part of reading these numbers; see what happens to your portfolio in a tariff shock.
The other big scheduled event is the Fed’s decision; see what the stock market does on Fed days. Background on the index itself: the CPI effect on stocks. Past reactions do not predict the next report.
Across the 123 CPI releases from Jul 2016 to Oct 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) moved 0.80% on an average CPI day, up or down, against 0.73% on a normal trading day, and closed higher on 57% of them (55% of all days).
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the stock market opens, so the whole trading day reacts to it.
TQQQ, a 3x Nasdaq-100 fund, moved 3.10% on an average CPI day, against 2.89% on a normal day. Its worst CPI day was -16.5% and its best +21.9%, in Exent’s data.
In this data, March 11, 2020: the S&P 500 fund fell 4.9% and TQQQ 12.9%. Some CPI days fell in the middle of other news, such as the COVID crash of March 2020.
Yes. In 2022 the S&P 500 moved 1.94% on an average CPI day against 1.20% on a normal day that year.
The next scheduled release is on November 10, 2026, then December 10, 2026.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.