Five tariff announcements since 2018, from the first China list to the 2025 “reciprocal” tariffs: what stocks, leveraged ETFs, Treasuries, gold and T‑bills did on the day, at the worst point and three months later. With a market risk check updated every trading day.
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Usually a sharp dip that recovers within weeks; occasionally a selloff of 10% to 20%. Tariff news hits stock prices fast because it reaches company profits, supply chains and the outlook for growth at once, and it can reverse just as fast when a deal or a pause follows. Leveraged funds magnify the dip; bonds and gold have been inconsistent; short‑term cash has been steady.
Here are the five announcements since 2018, each measured from the close before the first trading day after it to three months later, dividends included. This page is part of the portfolio protection guide.
| Announcement | What was announced | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2018 | 25% tariffs on about $50 billion of Chinese imports | USTR |
| Sep 18, 2018 | About $200 billion more, at 10% from Sep 24 | USTR |
| May 5–6, 2019 | The 10% on $200 billion raised to 25% from Friday, May 10 | NPR |
| Aug 1, 2019 | 10% on about $300 billion more from Sep 1 | NPR |
| Apr 2, 2025 | A 10% tariff on all countries from Apr 5, higher rates for many from Apr 9 | White House |
| Episode | Window (close to close) | Trading days | S&P 500 (SPY), total return | S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2018: first China tariff list | Jun 14, 2018 → Sep 13, 2018 | 63 | +4.8% | −3.4% |
| Sep 18, 2018: $200 billion list | Sep 17, 2018 → Dec 17, 2018 | 63 | −11.3% | −13.0% |
| May 2019: 10% raised to 25% | May 3, 2019 → Aug 2, 2019 | 63 | 0.0% | −6.6% |
| Aug 1, 2019: tariffs on the rest of China’s imports | Jul 31, 2019 → Oct 29, 2019 | 63 | +2.4% | −4.6% |
| Apr 2, 2025: “reciprocal” tariffs | Apr 2, 2025 → Jul 3, 2025 | 63 | +11.1% | −12.1% |
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 3.1% above its 200‑day average (+5.2% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 11.3% a year, about normal for the period since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Nov 2, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Through Nov 2, 2026. “vs 200‑day avg.” = how far the close sits above or below its 200‑day average.
| Index fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | From its high | vs 200‑day avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −1.7% | +11.2% | −3.5% | +3.1% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −4.4% | +11.2% | −10.3% | +0.2% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | +0.8% | +14.2% | −8.3% | +0.5% |
| Index fund | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Russell 2000 (IWM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 days | −1.7% | −4.4% | +0.8% |
| Year to date | +11.2% | +11.2% | +14.2% |
| From its high | −3.5% | −10.3% | −8.3% |
| vs 200‑day avg. | +3.1% | +0.2% | +0.5% |
Last updated Nov 2, 2026. Members only.
| Exent regime pillar | Today |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | |
| Credit stress | |
| Economic cycle | |
| Sentiment | |
| Regime: Risk ON · Neutral · Risk OFF |
Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
This is each fund’s largest fall inside the three months after each announcement:
| Fund | Jun 2018 | Sep 2018 | May 2019 | Aug 2019 | Apr 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −2.9% | −12.6% | −6.6% | −4.6% | −12.1% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −4.2% | −15.4% | −11.0% | −5.4% | −12.6% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −5.8% | −25.1% | −13.2% | −9.3% | −23.2% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −8.8% | −36.4% | −19.4% | −13.9% | −33.4% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −8.6% | −30.4% | −21.3% | −10.9% | −24.3% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −12.3% | −44.1% | −30.4% | −15.7% | −35.1% |
Three of the five were short dips. After the June 2018 list the S&P 500 was back at its pre‑announcement close by Jul 10, 2018; after May 2019 by Jun 20, 2019; after August 2019 by Sep 5, 2019. The September 2018 list turned into the Q4 2018 selloff, which also had Fed hikes in it, and the April 2025 tariffs came on top of a fall that had started in February. Those two are the ones worth planning for.
The April 2025 shock was the fastest. On Apr 3, the first trading day after the announcement, the S&P 500 fund fell 4.9%, the 3× S&P 500 fund UPRO 14.3% and TQQQ 16.1%. The index was 12.1% lower four trading days in, then rose more than 9.5% on Apr 9, its best day since 2008, when most of the new tariffs were paused (Yahoo Finance). Anyone who sold on Apr 3 or Apr 8 missed that day.
The two big tariff selloffs in full, from the S&P 500’s record to its low, show what leverage did over the whole fall:
| Fund | Q4 2018 | 2025 tariffs |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −19.3% | −18.8% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −22.8% | −22.8% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −36.5% | −35.1% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −50.3% | −48.9% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −42.3% | −41.8% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −57.9% | −56.7% |
Three months on, the S&P 500 was higher after three announcements, flat after one and lower after one. The 2025 shock, the sharpest on the day, had the best three months:
| Fund | Jun 2018 | Sep 2018 | May 2019 | Aug 2019 | Apr 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +4.8% | −11.3% | 0.0% | +2.4% | +11.1% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | +4.1% | −13.0% | −1.8% | +2.8% | +16.9% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | +12.8% | −33.7% | −2.4% | +3.9% | +24.8% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | +9.8% | −39.4% | −8.7% | +4.1% | +42.3% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | −0.3% | +1.2% | +11.1% | +3.9% | −3.8% |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | +0.5% | +1.9% | +6.0% | +1.8% | +0.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | −7.8% | +3.7% | +12.6% | +5.3% | +6.6% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +1.1% |
The defensive side was mixed. Long Treasuries (TLT) rose 11.1% in the three months after May 2019 but fell 3.8% after April 2025, when stocks and long bonds fell together in the first week. Gold (GLD) rose after four of the five; it fell 7.8% after June 2018. T‑bills (BIL) earned their small, steady return every time. In the two full selloffs, measured from the S&P 500’s peak to its low:
| Asset | Q4 2018 | 2025 tariffs |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY), price | −20.2% | −19.0% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +0.5% | +0.6% |
| 1–3y Treasuries (SHY) | +1.2% | +1.3% |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | +3.4% | +2.7% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | +4.5% | +0.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | +5.0% | +1.6% |
The sector and stock detail of the two big episodes is in the 2018 trade‑war selloff and the 2025 tariff selloff; the general mechanics in how tariffs affect the stock market. Past reactions do not predict the next one.
Usually a quick dip. After three of five announcements since 2018 the S&P 500 fell 3% to 7% and recovered within about three to seven weeks. After the September 2018 list and the April 2025 tariffs it fell more than 12%.
It fell 16.1% on April 3, 2025 alone, 35.1% within the three months after the April 2 announcement, and 56.7% from the S&P 500’s February 19 record to its April 8 low, in Exent’s data.
Not reliably. Long Treasuries (TLT) rose after three of five announcements, including 11.1% in the three months after May 2019, but fell 3.8% in the three months after April 2, 2025.
It rose in the three months after four of the five announcements since 2018, but fell 7.8% after the June 2018 list.
Selling on the day has had a poor record: three of five tariff dips recovered within weeks, and the S&P 500 rose more than 9.5% on April 9, 2025, a week after the biggest shock. This is history, not advice.
Three to seven weeks for the three short dips. After the September 2018 list, the S&P 500 regained its September record on April 29, 2019; after the 2025 selloff it regained its February record on June 27, 2025.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.