Which S&P 500 Stocks Move the Most on Fed Days?
Every S&P 500 member on every Fed decision day since July 2016: how much bigger its moves were than on a normal day, which sectors and stocks reacted most and least, and what happened on Oct 28, 2026.
Every Federal Reserve decision since mid‑2016: what the S&P 500, the Nasdaq‑100, leveraged ETFs and long Treasuries did on the day and over the next week, hikes vs cuts vs holds, and the biggest Fed‑day moves. Updated after every decision.
Market risk reading, cross‑asset context and an events calendar: see Exent →
It usually moves more than on a normal day, in either direction. The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year and releases its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on the meeting’s last day (Federal Reserve), so a decision day includes the morning before the news and the two hours after it. Much of the reaction can come from the statement and the outlook for future rates, not only from the decision.
This page tracks every decision from mid‑2016 onward, from the Fed’s meeting calendars and its table of rate changes, including the two emergency cuts of March 2020. It updates after each decision. It is part of the portfolio protection guide.
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. Across the 84 Fed decisions from Jul 2016 to Oct 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) moved 0.93% on an average decision day, up or down: about 1.3 times the move of a normal trading day (0.73%). It closed higher on 44% of them, against 55% of all trading days. The 3× Nasdaq‑100 fund TQQQ moved 3.67% on an average decision day; its worst was −34.5% and its best +12.4%.
Price change from the close before to the close of the decision day: the chart shows the last 8, the table the last 12. Decisions come at 2 p.m. Eastern, so the day includes the morning before them.
| Decision day | Decision | S&P 500, day | Nasdaq‑100, day | TQQQ, day | S&P 500, 5 days | TQQQ, 5 days | Long Treasuries, day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Hold | +0.3% | +0.6% | +1.9% | In progress | In progress | −0.8% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Hike +0.25 to 3.75–4.00% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +2.1% | +19.0% | +0.2% |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Hold | −1.5% | −2.0% | −6.2% | +4.1% | +21.5% | −1.6% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Hold | −1.3% | −1.0% | −3.0% | −2.3% | −8.3% | +0.2% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Hold | 0.0% | +0.6% | +1.8% | +1.7% | +10.9% | −0.8% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Hold | −1.4% | −1.4% | −4.3% | −2.6% | −9.4% | −0.6% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Hold | 0.0% | +0.3% | +0.9% | −0.9% | −7.1% | −0.2% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Cut −0.25 to 3.50–3.75% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +1.1% | −0.6% | −6.6% | +0.4% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Cut −0.25 to 3.75–4.00% | +0.1% | +0.5% | +1.3% | −1.7% | −6.7% | −1.0% |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Cut −0.25 to 4.00–4.25% | −0.1% | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.5% | +3.7% | −0.3% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Hold | −0.1% | +0.1% | +0.4% | −1.1% | −4.2% | −0.5% |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Hold | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.1% | +1.6% | +6.7% | +0.2% |
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 3.1% above its 200‑day average (+5.2% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 11.3% a year, about normal for the period since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Nov 2, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Year‑to‑date return through Nov 2, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −3.5% | +16.4% | +22.3% | −7.4% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −5.4% | +20.9% | +33.5% | −11.6% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −8.8% | +14.2% | +22.5% | −20.3% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −13.1% | +13.5% | +33.7% | −31.5% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | +2.1% | +26.7% | +42.5% | −46.4% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −24.7% | +62.3% | +152.7% | −77.3% |
Last updated Nov 2, 2026. Members only.
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Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
The average move on a decision day (up or down) next to the average move on all trading days since mid‑2016, and how often each fund closed higher:
| Fund | Average move, decision days | Average move, all days | Closed higher, decision days | Closed higher, all days | Worst decision day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 0.93% | 0.73% | 44% | 55% | −10.9% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | 1.23% | 0.97% | 55% | 56% | −12.0% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | 1.87% | 1.44% | 43% | 54% | −23.4% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | 2.82% | 2.16% | 44% | 54% | −34.9% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | 2.46% | 1.94% | 55% | 56% | −24.3% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | 3.67% | 2.89% | 54% | 55% | −34.5% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | 0.76% | 0.69% | 64% | 50% | −1.6% |
The leveraged rows show why Fed days matter more for holders of TQQQ, UPRO or QLD than for index investors: a fund that moves three times the index every day turns a 2% index day into a 6% day, and a 10.9% day into 34.5%. How those swings compound is in leveraged ETF decay.
| Decision | Number | S&P 500, average day | S&P 500, average move | S&P 500 closed higher | TQQQ, average move | S&P 500, average 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes | 20 | 0.0% | 1.11% | 35% | 4.33% | −0.6% |
| Cuts | 11 | −1.5% | 1.83% | 45% | 6.29% | −2.8% |
| Holds | 53 | +0.1% | 0.67% | 47% | 2.88% | +0.3% |
| Decision | Hikes | Cuts | Holds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number | 20 | 11 | 53 |
| S&P 500, average day | 0.0% | −1.5% | +0.1% |
| S&P 500, average move | 1.11% | 1.83% | 0.67% |
| S&P 500 closed higher | 35% | 45% | 47% |
| TQQQ, average move | 4.33% | 6.29% | 2.88% |
| S&P 500, average 5 days | −0.6% | −2.8% | +0.3% |
Cut days include the two emergency cuts of March 2020, which dominate their average: the S&P 500 fund fell 2.9% on Mar 3, 2020 and 10.9% on Mar 16. Without a crisis, cuts were not reliably good days either; the Dec 18, 2024 cut came with a 3.0% fall. Hike days in 2022 included some of the best Fed days in the data (+2.2% on Mar 16, +3.0% on May 4, +2.6% on Jul 27) and two clear down days (−1.7% on Sep 21, −2.5% on Nov 2). The latest hike, on Sep 16, 2026, came with a 0.4% fall on the day. The decision after it, on Oct 28, 2026, was a hold at 3.75–4.00% with two officials voting for another hike (Fed statement); the S&P 500 fund rose 0.3% that day and TQQQ 1.9%. More on that meeting: the Oct 28, 2026 Fed decision. What whole hiking and cutting runs did to portfolios is in when the Fed raises rates and when the Fed cuts rates.
| Decision day | Decision | S&P 500, day | TQQQ, day | S&P 500, 5 days | TQQQ, 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2020 | Cut −1.00 to 0–0.25% (unscheduled) | −10.9% | −34.5% | −15.1% | −37.5% |
| May 4, 2022 | Hike +0.50 to 0.75–1.00% | +3.0% | +9.9% | −4.2% | −17.6% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Cut −0.25 to 4.25–4.50% | −3.0% | −10.8% | −0.5% | −3.9% |
| Mar 3, 2020 | Cut −0.50 to 1.00–1.25% (unscheduled) | −2.9% | −9.4% | −11.3% | −30.0% |
| Apr 29, 2020 | Hold | +2.6% | +10.3% | +0.2% | +8.0% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Hike +0.75 to 2.25–2.50% | +2.6% | +12.4% | +4.4% | +20.7% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | Hike +0.75 to 3.75–4.00% | −2.5% | −10.3% | −0.7% | −6.8% |
| Jan 27, 2021 | Hold | −2.4% | −8.1% | −0.6% | −1.6% |
The years with the largest Fed‑day moves were years when the Fed changed course fast or the market was already in turmoil:
| Year | Fed decisions | S&P 500, average move on decision days | S&P 500, average move, all days | TQQQ, average move on decision days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4 | 0.67% | 0.42% | 2.18% |
| 2017 | 8 | 0.17% | 0.31% | 1.10% |
| 2018 | 8 | 0.42% | 0.75% | 1.91% |
| 2019 | 8 | 0.57% | 0.57% | 2.25% |
| 2020 | 9 | 2.31% | 1.33% | 8.42% |
| 2021 | 8 | 0.82% | 0.63% | 3.15% |
| 2022 | 8 | 1.80% | 1.20% | 7.40% |
| 2023 | 8 | 0.87% | 0.65% | 3.70% |
| 2024 | 8 | 1.17% | 0.59% | 5.08% |
| 2025 | 8 | 0.37% | 0.75% | 1.15% |
| 2026 (to Nov 2026) | 7 | 0.71% | 0.63% | 2.59% |
For the other big scheduled release, see what the stock market does on CPI day. Background on the rate itself: the fed funds rate. Past Fed days do not predict the next one.
Across the 84 Fed decisions from Jul 2016 to Oct 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) moved 0.93% on an average decision day, up or down, against 0.73% on a normal trading day, and closed higher on 44% of them (55% of all days).
On the 20 hike days since mid-2016 the S&P 500 closed higher 35% of the time, with an average day of 0.0% and an average of -0.6% over five trading days. On the 11 cut days it averaged -1.5%, pulled down by the two emergency cuts of March 2020.
TQQQ, a 3x Nasdaq-100 fund, moved 3.67% on an average decision day, against 2.89% on a normal day. Its worst decision day was -34.5% and its best +12.4%, in Exent’s data.
-10.9% for the S&P 500 fund on March 16, 2020, the first trading day after an emergency cut to near zero. TQQQ moved -34.5% that day.
Scheduled decisions come in a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on the last day of the meeting. Unscheduled moves, like those of March 2020, can come at other times.
The next scheduled decision is on December 9, 2026, then January 27, 2027, per the Federal Reserve’s meeting calendar.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.