How Do Fed Rate Cuts Affect Stocks?
Rate cuts are not automatically good for stocks. What matters is why the Federal Reserve is cutting. Here is what happened after past first cuts, with and without a recession, and how cuts reach share prices.
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Fed Meeting October 28, 2026: What to Watch and Why No Dot Plot
The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026. Here is the schedule for that week, why this meeting has no new projections, what past Fed days did to stocks, and a checklist for getting a portfolio ready without guessing the outcome.
Key takeaways
- The Fed’s committee meets Oct 27–28, 2026 and announces its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Oct 28, with the Chair’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. There is no dot plot at this meeting.
- It is the first decision since Sep 16, 2026, when the Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023. As of Oct 22, futures pricing leaned toward no change; those odds move daily.
- Only four of the eight 2026 meetings carry new economic projections (the dot plot): March, June, September and December. In October, the statement and the press conference carry the signal.
- The same 27 hours bring Alphabet and Microsoft results (Oct 28 after the close), Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation (Oct 29, 8:30 a.m. ET) and Amazon (Oct 29). Apple reports Nov 2.
What happens at the Fed meeting on October 28, 2026?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends a two‑day meeting and publishes its decision on the federal funds target range at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct 28. The Chair’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. (Federal Reserve calendar). The minutes of the meeting come three weeks later, on Nov 18, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. (Federal Reserve).
The statement is short. Investors read it for three things: the decision itself, any change in the wording about future moves, and how many members voted against. The press conference then fills in what the statement leaves out, usually in answers to reporters’ questions about the next meeting.
Will the Fed raise or cut rates in October 2026?
Nobody knows in advance, and this page does not forecast it. What is known: on Sep 16, 2026 the committee voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% (Fed statement, Sep 16, 2026). It was the first increase since July 2023, after a run of cuts from September 2024 to December 2025 (Fed table of rate changes).
As of Oct 22, 2026, fed funds futures leaned toward no change in October. Futures odds are a market price, not a promise; they can swing after a single inflation report. Because a hold was widely expected, much of the market’s attention is on what the statement implies for the December meeting. How rate changes reached stocks in past cycles is covered in how Fed rate cuts affect stocks and what happens to a portfolio when the Fed raises rates. Background on the rate itself: the fed funds rate.
Which Fed meetings have a dot plot?
Four a year. The dot plot is part of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), in which each official writes down where they expect rates, growth, unemployment and inflation to be. The Fed publishes it only at the March, June, September and December meetings (FOMC calendar). October is not one of them.
| 2026 meeting | New projections (dot plot)? |
|---|---|
| Jan 27–28 | No |
| Mar 17–18 | Yes |
| Apr 28–29 | No |
| Jun 16–17 | Yes |
| Jul 28–29 | No |
| Sep 15–16 | Yes (the meeting that raised rates) |
| Oct 27–28 | No |
| Dec 8–9 | Yes |
Without new dots, the latest projections are still the September ones. That makes the statement wording and the press conference the only new information on Oct 28, and it puts more weight on the December meeting, which does carry projections.
What else reports that week?
Six scheduled events land within about 27 hours, from the Fed’s 2:00 p.m. decision on Oct 28 to Amazon’s call on the evening of Oct 29. All times Eastern, as published by the Fed, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the companies’ investor relations pages:
| When (ET) | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28, 2:00 p.m. | FOMC rate decision and statement | Federal Reserve |
| Wed Oct 28, 2:30 p.m. | Fed Chair’s press conference | Federal Reserve |
| Wed Oct 28, after the close (call 4:30 p.m.) | Alphabet Q3 2026 results | Alphabet investor relations |
| Wed Oct 28, after the close | Microsoft fiscal 2027 Q1 results | Microsoft investor relations |
| Thu Oct 29, 8:30 a.m. | GDP, advance estimate for Q3 2026 | BEA |
| Thu Oct 29, 8:30 a.m. | Personal Income and Outlays for September, including PCE inflation | BEA |
| Thu Oct 29, after the close (call 5:00 p.m.) | Amazon Q3 2026 results | Amazon investor relations |
| Mon Nov 2, after the close (call 5:00 p.m.) | Apple fiscal Q4 2026 results | Apple |
| Wed Nov 18, 2:00 p.m. | Minutes of the Oct 27–28 meeting | Federal Reserve |
Sources: BEA release schedule, Alphabet investor relations, Microsoft investor relations, Amazon. Some calendars listed Apple on Oct 29; Apple’s own announcement gives Nov 2.
PCE is the inflation measure the Fed targets at 2%, so the Oct 29 release arrives the morning after the decision and can change how the statement is read. The three company reports matter for index investors because Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple are among the largest holdings of an S&P 500 fund such as SPY. A rate surprise and a spending surprise can hit the same stocks twice in one afternoon. More on how these releases fit together: the economic calendar explained and the earnings season guide.
What do stocks usually do on Fed days?
They tend to move more than on an ordinary day, but not in a reliable direction. Exent’s data on every decision since mid‑2016 shows wide swings both ways: the S&P 500 fund (SPY) fell 10.9% on Mar 16, 2020 after an emergency cut, rose 3.0% on May 4, 2022 on a hike day, and fell 3.0% on Dec 18, 2024 on a cut day. On the Sep 16, 2026 hike it fell 0.4%.
The lesson from those days is that the direction of the decision did not decide the direction of the market; the surprise and the message about the future did. The full table, including leveraged funds and the five days after each decision, is in what the stock market does on Fed days. Past Fed days do not predict the next one.
How to prepare a portfolio (not a forecast)
The useful work happens before Oct 28, not at 2:00 p.m. A plan written in advance keeps a fast afternoon from turning into a rushed decision. A checklist many investors use:
- Know the times: 2:00 p.m. decision, 2:30 p.m. press conference, two big tech reports that evening, GDP and PCE at 8:30 a.m. the next day.
- List what you own that is sensitive to rates: long-duration bonds, rate-sensitive sectors, and growth stocks valued on distant earnings.
- Add up how much of the portfolio rides on the same few large tech companies, directly and through index funds.
- Check leveraged or options positions: a 3× fund can turn a normal Fed-day move into a large one.
- Write down in advance what would make you act, and what would not. Decide exits before the announcement, not during it.
- Keep cash needs for the next year outside the stock market, so a volatile week does not force a sale.
For holders of leveraged funds, see when it is safe to hold leveraged ETFs. This is general education, not personal advice.
Sources and method
Meeting dates, times, the September decision and the history of rate changes come from federalreserve.gov. Release times for GDP and PCE come from the BEA schedule. Company dates come from each company’s investor relations announcement. All were checked on Oct 22, 2026; schedules can change, and the issuers’ own pages are the final word. Fed‑day price moves are past daily closes from Exent’s data. Futures odds are described, not quoted, because they change daily.
How to follow Fed week with Exent
- Exent Market intel keeps an events calendar with every Fed meeting, data release and major earnings date, watched daily for members.
- A daily market briefing summarizes what moved and why, with cited sources.
- Members can compare the Magnificent 7 with the other 493 S&P 500 companies, which matters in a week when four of them report.
Frequently asked questions
The FOMC statement is released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Oct 28, 2026, and the Chair’s press conference starts at 2:30 p.m., according to the Federal Reserve’s calendar.
No. In 2026 the Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the dot plot, comes only with the March, June, September and December meetings. The next one is due on Dec 9, 2026.
The target range is 3.75–4.00%. The Fed raised it by a quarter point on Sep 16, 2026, its first increase since July 2023.
No one knows in advance. As of Oct 22, 2026, fed funds futures leaned toward no change, but those odds move with each new data release.
The Federal Reserve’s calendar lists Nov 18, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern for the minutes of the Oct 27–28 meeting.
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on Oct 28, the first estimate of Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation come out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Oct 29, and Amazon reports after the close that day. Apple reports on Nov 2.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.