What holding the 3× Nasdaq‑100 fund since mid‑2016 returned, the 81.6% fall along the way, what that fall meant in dollars, and how a simple exit rule changed the path in a hypothetical backtest.
You can, and over the last decade it paid, but only for investors who sat through an 81.6% fall. In Exent’s data, TQQQ returned 44.1% a year from Jul 2016 to Sep 2026, against 21.5% for the Nasdaq‑100 fund QQQ. Along the way it fell 81.6% from Nov 19, 2021 to Dec 28, 2022, and did not get back to that high until Jul 10, 2024.
So the real question is not the average return. It is whether you would still own the fund at the bottom. Its design works against long holds: TQQQ resets its leverage every day (see daily reset), so its long‑run result depends on the path the index takes. The SEC’s investor bulletin says leveraged and inverse ETFs generally are not suitable for buy‑and‑hold investors, and FINRA Notice 09‑31 said in 2009 that they typically are unsuitable for retail investors who hold them longer than one trading session. The wider picture of crash protection is in the portfolio protection guide.
Data through the close of Oct 19, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 3.7%. The S&P 500 is 1.6% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 6.1% above its 200‑day average (+8.0% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 9.6% a year, calmer than 70% of trading days since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Oct 19, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Year‑to‑date return through Oct 19, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −3.1% | +20.8% | +25.4% | −3.7% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −4.6% | +28.4% | +38.1% | −6.0% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −7.5% | +27.5% | +34.2% | −10.9% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −11.3% | +34.2% | +51.3% | −19.0% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | −7.4% | +16.8% | +31.2% | −50.6% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −23.2% | +134.7% | +200.3% | −67.2% |
Last updated Oct 19, 2026. Members only.
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About twice QQQ’s yearly return, with three times its volatility. The table uses daily closes from the Jun 30, 2016 close, with dividends reinvested.
| Fund | Return a year | Volatility | Worst fall | Worst fall dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | 21.5% | 22.3% | −35.1% | Nov 2021 → Nov 2022 |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | 35.0% | 44.6% | −63.7% | Nov 2021 → Dec 2022 |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | 44.1% | 66.1% | −81.6% | Nov 2021 → Dec 2022 |
| Fund | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return a year | 21.5% | 35.0% | 44.1% |
| Volatility | 22.3% | 44.6% | 66.1% |
| Worst fall | −35.1% | −63.7% | −81.6% |
| Worst fall dates | Nov 2021 → Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 → Dec 2022 | Nov 2021 → Dec 2022 |
TQQQ’s total return over the window was 4,140.8%, against 2,073.9% for the 2× fund QLD and 637.3% for QQQ. Its volatility, 66.1% a year, was about three times QQQ’s 22.3%: the risk scaled fully, the return did not. Our guide to whether leveraged ETFs improve returns uses month‑end data over the 10 years to Sep 2026, which gives 41.4% a year and a 79% worst fall; the window and data differ, the picture is the same.
The decade was kind to leverage. The Nasdaq‑100 rose strongly and recovered quickly from each fall. TQQQ launched in February 2010, according to ProShares, so it has never been through a 2008‑style crisis. In the 2007–09 crisis the 2× Nasdaq‑100 fund QLD, which did exist, fell 84.1%.
It lost 79.0% in calendar 2022 while QQQ lost 32.6%. The table shows each year: the index, three times the index, and what the fund actually returned.
| Year | Index (QQQ) | 3× the index | The fund (TQQQ) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +32.7% | +98.1% | +118.2% |
| 2018 | −0.1% | −0.3% | −19.7% |
| 2019 | +39.0% | +117.0% | +134.0% |
| 2020 | +48.6% | +145.8% | +110.1% |
| 2021 | +27.4% | +82.2% | +83.0% |
| 2022 | −32.6% | −97.8% | −79.0% |
| 2023 | +54.9% | +164.7% | +203.0% |
| 2024 | +25.6% | +76.8% | +60.5% |
| 2025 | +20.8% | +62.4% | +35.1% |
| 2026 (to Sep 2026) | +20.6% | +61.8% | +48.2% |
Measured from its high on Nov 19, 2021 to its low on Dec 28, 2022, the fall was 81.6%. QQQ’s own worst fall in that stretch was 35.1%, and it was back at its high by Dec 13, 2023; TQQQ needed until Jul 10, 2024, carried by two exceptional years (+203.0% in 2023, +60.5% in 2024). Coverage on Yahoo Finance (The Motley Fool, December 2025) put TQQQ’s 2022 drawdown at 82% and concluded these funds are not for buy‑and‑hold investors.
It means watching $100,000 become $18,400 over 13 months, then waiting another 18 months to see $100,000 again. The table puts the same amount into each fund at the Nov 19, 2021 high.
| Illustrative: $100,000 at the Nov 19, 2021 high | Value at the low | Gain needed to get back | Back to $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | $64,900 (Nov 3, 2022) | +54.1% | Dec 13, 2023 |
| QLD (2×) | $36,300 (Dec 28, 2022) | +175.5% | May 28, 2024 |
| TQQQ (3×) | $18,400 (Dec 28, 2022) | +443.5% | Jul 10, 2024 |
Dividends reinvested, before taxes. On a $1 million account with a quarter in TQQQ, the TQQQ slice alone would have gone from $250,000 to $46,000, while the rest of a stock portfolio was falling too. The math behind the “gain needed” column is in loss recovery math.
Few investors, and not for lack of discipline. At the Dec 2022 low nobody knew that 2023 would bring a 203% gain. The fund had lost 81.6% in 13 months and needed to more than quintuple to break even. Anyone who sold along the way locked in the loss and missed the rebound. Morningstar’s Mind the Gap study measures this kind of damage every year: the gap between the returns funds post and the returns their investors actually earn, which comes from the timing of their buys and sells.
Questions investors often answer in writing before a long hold:
If the honest answer to the first question is no, the average return does not apply to you. More on this in drawdown tolerance.
In a hypothetical backtest, yes: TQQQ’s falls were much smaller and its return was higher. Each fund was held while QQQ closed above its 200‑day average the day before, and swapped for T‑bills otherwise (Jan 2017 – Sep 2026, before trading costs and taxes).
| Fund | Hold: a year | Hold: worst fall | 200‑day rule: a year | Rule: worst fall | Time invested |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | 21.4% | −35.1% | 19.2% | −21.9% | 83% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | 42.5% | −81.6% | 46.4% | −54.8% | 83% |
| Fund | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) |
|---|---|---|
| Hold: a year | 21.4% | 42.5% |
| Hold: worst fall | −35.1% | −81.6% |
| 200‑day rule: a year | 19.2% | 46.4% |
| Rule: worst fall | −21.9% | −54.8% |
| Time invested | 83% | 83% |
With the rule, TQQQ returned 46.4% a year against 42.5% for holding over the same window (the holding figure is lower than 44.1% above because this window starts in Jan 2017). The worst fall shrank from −81.6% to −54.8%, and it came in the fast COVID crash, not in 2022. On QQQ itself the same rule gave up some return (19.2% vs 21.4% a year). The rule switched 34 times, and in a taxable account every exit is a taxable sale. Year‑by‑year results and the years it cost money are in TQQQ and the 200‑day moving average. See also how much leveraged ETFs lose in a crash and QLD vs TQQQ.
You can, but it is a trading tool by design. From July 2016 to September 2026 it returned 44.1% a year in Exent’s data, against 21.5% for QQQ, with an 81.6% fall from November 2021 to December 2022 along the way.
The SEC says leveraged ETFs generally are not suitable for buy-and-hold investors. The last decade rewarded holders who sat through an 81.6% fall, but it had no 2008-style crisis, and TQQQ only launched in 2010.
In Exent’s daily data from July 2016 to September 2026, 44.1% a year, a total return of 4,140.8%. On month-end data over the 10 years to September 2026, 41.4% a year. Past results do not predict future ones.
It lost 79.0% in calendar 2022, against 32.6% for QQQ. Its full fall from the November 2021 high to the December 2022 low was 81.6%, and it got back to that high in July 2024.
Over this decade it returned about twice QQQ per year with three times the volatility. Whether that trade is worth it depends on whether you could hold through a fall of 80% or more, which is a personal question, not a data one.
In a hypothetical backtest from January 2017 to September 2026, it returned 46.4% a year against 42.5% for holding and cut the worst fall to 54.8%, before trading costs and taxes, with 34 switches.
Market Intelligence reads the market regime and tells you whether the backdrop favors taking risk or protecting capital.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.