Nobody knows if AI stocks are a bubble. What history shows is how far tech, chip stocks, Nvidia and leveraged funds fell in the dot‑com bust and in every AI‑era selloff since 2021, what held up, and how long recovery took. With a market risk check updated every trading day.
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Nobody can say in advance whether AI stocks are a bubble; that is only clear afterwards. What can be measured is what happened to portfolios in past tech busts. The largest was the dot‑com bust: QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq‑100, closed at $117.88 on Mar 24, 2000 and at $20.06 on Oct 9, 2002, a fall of 83%. It did not close above its 2000 peak again for more than 16 years, and an investor who reinvested dividends waited about 15 years to break even (The Motley Fool on Yahoo Finance).
Since 2021 there have been three large tech and chip selloffs, plus one shock day. The 2022 fall came before the AI boom, in a year of fast rate hikes; the 2024 and 2025 chip selloffs came in the middle of it. Each window below runs from a record close to the low that followed, dividends included. This page is part of the portfolio protection guide; for whether today’s prices look stretched, see are we in a stock market bubble.
| Episode | Window (close to close) | Trading days | S&P 500 (SPY), total return | S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 tech bear market | Nov 19, 2021 → Nov 3, 2022 | 240 | −19.7% | −25.4% |
| Summer 2024 chip selloff | Jul 10, 2024 → Aug 7, 2024 | 20 | −7.6% | −8.4% |
| 2025 chip selloff | Jan 22, 2025 → Apr 8, 2025 | 53 | −17.9% | −19.0% |
| Episode | 2022 tech bear market | Summer 2024 chip selloff | 2025 chip selloff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window (close to close) | Nov 19, 2021 → Nov 3, 2022 | Jul 10, 2024 → Aug 7, 2024 | Jan 22, 2025 → Apr 8, 2025 |
| Trading days | 240 | 20 | 53 |
| S&P 500 (SPY), total return | −19.7% | −7.6% | −17.9% |
| S&P 500’s largest fall inside (price) | −25.4% | −8.4% | −19.0% |
Data through the close of Nov 2, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 3.1% above its 200‑day average (+5.2% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 11.3% a year, about normal for the period since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Nov 2, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Year‑to‑date return through Nov 2, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −3.5% | +16.4% | +22.3% | −7.4% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −5.4% | +20.9% | +33.5% | −11.6% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −8.8% | +14.2% | +22.5% | −20.3% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −13.1% | +13.5% | +33.7% | −31.5% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | +2.1% | +26.7% | +42.5% | −46.4% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −24.7% | +62.3% | +152.7% | −77.3% |
Last updated Nov 2, 2026. Members only.
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|---|---|
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Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
From each window’s start to its low, the S&P 500 fell less than the Nasdaq‑100, chip stocks and Nvidia fell more, and the 3× chip fund fell most:
| Fund | 2022 tech bear | Summer 2024 | Early 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −19.7% | −7.6% | −17.9% |
| Min‑volatility US stocks (USMV) | −9.9% | +1.0% | −5.4% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −35.1% | −13.6% | −21.6% |
| Chip stocks (SOXX) | −40.9% | −24.9% | −34.2% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | −59.3% | −26.7% | −34.5% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −62.9% | −26.2% | −40.4% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −80.6% | −37.4% | −55.4% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −88.4% | −61.8% | −76.5% |
The broad S&P 500 lost 7.6% to 19.7%, the Nasdaq‑100 13.6% to 35.1%, chip stocks 24.9% to 40.9%. Leverage on top of a concentrated theme was the most dangerous combination: the 3× chip fund SOXL lost 61.8% in the 20 trading days of the summer 2024 selloff and 88.4% over the 2022 tech bear market. The 3× Nasdaq‑100 fund TQQQ lost 80.6% in 2022. A fund that loses 88% needs to rise more than eightfold to get back to even (loss recovery math). More on those funds in how much leveraged ETFs lose in a crash and how much QQQ can fall.
When a Chinese start‑up, DeepSeek, showed a low‑cost AI model, Nvidia fell 17% in a day and lost $589 billion of market value, the largest one‑day loss in US stock‑market history (Bloomberg on Yahoo Finance). The broad market fell far less, which is what concentration risk looks like:
| Fund | First day | First 5 trading days |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NVDA) | −17.0% | −15.8% |
| Chip stocks (SOXX) | −7.8% | −5.4% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −23.2% | −17.3% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −2.9% | −1.4% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −8.8% | −4.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −1.4% | −1.0% |
| Min‑volatility US stocks (USMV) | +1.1% | +1.1% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | +1.2% | +0.6% |
A portfolio that held the S&P 500 fund lost 1.4% that day; one that held Nvidia lost 17%, and one that held the 3× chip fund lost 23.2%. Stock‑level detail on how much AI a portfolio really holds is in how much AI exposure is in your portfolio.
| Fund | 2022 tech bear | Summer 2024 | Early 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | −34.0% | +3.9% | +2.0% |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | −17.2% | +2.9% | +3.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | −12.1% | +0.5% | +8.2% |
| T‑bills (BIL) | +0.8% | +0.4% | +0.9% |
| Energy stocks (XLE) | +72.7% | −2.2% | −16.1% |
T‑bills (BIL) gained in all three windows. Treasuries were mixed: they rose in the 2024 and 2025 chip selloffs, and lost 34.0% (long) and 17.2% (7–10 year) in the 2022 window, a year in which the Fed raised rates seven times. Energy stocks rose 72.7% in the 2022 window as oil climbed, a reminder that a tech bust is not a whole‑market bust. Minimum‑ volatility stocks (USMV) fell far less than the Nasdaq‑100 every time. Where to wait out a fall is compared in cash, T‑bills or bonds when you step aside.
When each fund first closed back at its value from the start of each window (data through Sep 30, 2026):
| Back to its starting value | 2022 tech bear | Summer 2024 | Early 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | Jul 2023 (20 mo.) | Aug 2024 (1 mo.) | Jun 2025 (5 mo.) |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Dec 2023 (25 mo.) | Nov 2024 (4 mo.) | Jun 2025 (5 mo.) |
| Chip stocks (SOXX) | Jul 2023 (20 mo.) | Sep 2025 (14 mo.) | Jun 2025 (5 mo.) |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | May 2023 (18 mo.) | Oct 2024 (3 mo.) | Jun 2025 (5 mo.) |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | Jul 2024 (32 mo.) | Dec 2024 (5 mo.) | Jul 2025 (6 mo.) |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | Jul 2024 (32 mo.) | Jan 2026 (19 mo.) | Oct 2025 (8 mo.) |
The recent selloffs recovered within months to two years. The dot‑com bust shows the other outcome: the index needed about 15 years. Which outcome a future AI selloff would resemble is not knowable in advance; how much of a portfolio rides on it is.
Nobody knows. In the dot-com bust the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ fell 83% from March 2000 to October 2002. In the 2022 tech bear market QQQ fell 35.1%, the S&P 500 fund 19.7% and the 3x chip fund SOXL 88.4%, in Exent’s data.
It fell 59.3% from November 2021 to November 2022 (66.3% at its worst), 26.7% in the summer 2024 chip selloff, 34.5% from January to April 2025, and 17% on January 27, 2025 alone.
They fall several times as far as the index. In the 2022 tech bear market TQQQ lost 80.6% and SOXL 88.4%; in the 20 trading days of the summer 2024 chip selloff SOXL lost 61.8%.
In the three tech selloffs since 2021, T-bills gained every time and minimum-volatility stocks fell far less than the Nasdaq-100. Treasuries rose in the 2024 and 2025 chip selloffs but fell sharply in 2022, when rates were rising.
QQQ got back to its November 2021 value in December 2023. After the summer 2024 selloff the chip fund SOXX needed until September 2025 and SOXL until January 2026. After the dot-com bust QQQ took about 15 years with dividends.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.