How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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ANF Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Abercrombie & Fitch Co., consumer cyclical (market value $7.0 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 26
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+126.7% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was +57.4%)
Key takeaways
- ANF returned +315.9% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.70 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −83.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 61.5% and beta 1.00.
- 14 analysts rated it in the past year; 57% of their latest calls were Buy.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on ANF say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did ANF beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about ANF
- ANF returns by year vs the S&P 500
- ANF risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How ANF behaved in past crashes
- What moves with ANF, and what doesn’t
- Latest ANF upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- The right benchmark for ANF
- Other consumer cyclical stocks
- Data and methodology
Did ANF beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) returned +315.9% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 240.0 percentage points, or +33.0% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | ANF | S&P 500 | ANF per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +126.7% | +12.0% | +126.7% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +170.4% | +87.4% | +39.3% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +315.9% | +75.9% | +33.0% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +1,233% | +316.3% | +29.6% | +15.3% | Beat |
- 1 year
- ANF
- +126.7%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- ANF per year
- +126.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- ANF
- +170.4%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- ANF per year
- +39.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- ANF
- +315.9%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- ANF per year
- +33.0%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- ANF
- +1,233%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- ANF per year
- +29.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about ANF
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 14 analysts published 185 ratings on ANF. Their latest calls were 57% Buy, 43% Hold and 0% Sell. 2 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $119.50 (range $95.00–$149.00), −27.2% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 57.0% |
| Paul Lejuez | Citi | 4.5★ | 63.7% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ANF are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
ANF returns by year vs the S&P 500
ANF beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | ANF | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +30.6% | +11.7% | +18.9% |
| 2025 | −15.8% | +17.7% | −33.5% |
| 2024 | +69.4% | +24.9% | +44.5% |
| 2023 | +285.1% | +26.2% | +258.9% |
| 2022 | −34.2% | −18.2% | −16.0% |
| 2021 | +71.1% | +28.7% | +42.4% |
| 2020 | +19.5% | +18.3% | +1.2% |
| 2019 | −9.7% | +31.2% | −40.9% |
| 2018 | +19.2% | −4.6% | +23.8% |
| 2017 | +54.1% | +21.7% | +32.4% |
ANF risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, ANF had a Sharpe ratio of 0.70 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 62.4% and its beta 1.00: it tended to move about 1.0× as much as the market.
| Metric | ANF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +33.0% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 62.4% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.28 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −63.6% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How ANF behaved in past crashes
ANF’s deepest fall in the crises below was −83.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | ANF | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −83.3% | −56.5% | −$83,260 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −25.4% | −20.2% | −$25,390 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −52.8% | −34.1% | −$52,840 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −64.9% | −25.4% | −$64,890 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −36.3% | −19.0% | −$36,310 |
| Window | ANF max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −45.7% |
| Last 3 years | −65.9% |
| Last 5 years | −69.9% |
| Last 10 years | −75.5% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with ANF, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, ANF’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.25, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.21, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.16 and with gold (GLD) −0.08.
Adding a 5% ANF position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.8%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVS | −0.19 | MCO | 0.39 |
| SO | −0.19 | MA | 0.38 |
| DUK | −0.13 | NVDA | 0.36 |
| INTC | −0.12 | CRM | 0.35 |
| UNH | −0.12 | SPGI | 0.33 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest ANF upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 | New coverage Buy | Kelly Crago |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ANF in the 5 weeks to Oct 4, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
The right benchmark for ANF
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ANF that is MDY. Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other consumer cyclical stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | +42.5% | 36.4% |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | +7.7% | 58.6% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | +0.5% | 24.6% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | +18.1% | 17.2% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | +130.3% | 22.2% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | +56.6% | 33.3% |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | +10.0% | 31.3% |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | −1.2% | 26.1% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check ANF with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average ANF price target is 27.2% below the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on ANF say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering ANF are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. ANF returned +1,233% (+29.6% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Co.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
ANF fell −83.3% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
ANF fell −52.8% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
ANF fell −64.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, ANF’s Sharpe ratio was 0.70 and its Sortino ratio 1.28, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
ANF’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 61.5%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.00.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ANF over the last 60 months were CVS (−0.19), SO (−0.19), DUK (−0.13). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.16 and with gold (GLD) −0.08.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on ANF now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on ANF are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.