Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 921,573 analyst ratings.
Stephen Volkmann is one of the top‑ranked analysts in Exent’s 7‑year backtest. What Stephen covers, how Stephen’s ratings lean, how fast price targets were reached and the ratings from before the last 30 days; the full record and the newest calls are members‑only.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; live calls are in Gems.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies ranks among the top‑ranked analysts of the 1,121 Exent scores, with a focus on industrials. The top of the ranking is what Exent Gems follows, so Stephen’s exact rank, hit rate and live calls are for members.
| Metric | Stephen Volkmann | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Exent rank | ??? | — |
| Price‑target hit rate | ??? | 53.6% |
| Calls up after 12 months | ??? | 64.6% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | ??? | +13.4% |
| Median days to hit target | ??? | 91 days |
| Stocks covered | 50 | — |
| Time to reach the target | Stephen Volkmann |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 17.2% |
| 30–90 days | 24.6% |
| 90–180 days | 27.3% |
| Over 180 days | 30.9% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
Across 921,573 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.6% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 15.6% of the 917 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Oct 20, 2026).
Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | CXT | Initiated Coverage: Buy | Buy | $60.00 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | VRT | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $245.00 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | CMI | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $675.00 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | XYL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $150.00 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CMI | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $775.00 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | AGCO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $145.00 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | HON | Initiated Coverage: Hold | Hold | $255.00 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CARR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $90.00 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | PNR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $90.00 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FAST | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $52.00 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | MIDD | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $160.00 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | XYL | Upgraded: Buy | Buy | $140.00 |
Ratings from the last 30 days are members‑only in Exent Gems, with the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree; older ratings are shown in full.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Oct 20, 2026; ranking updated Oct 22, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring, Stephen Volkmann ranks among the top‑ranked analysts of the 1,121 Exent scores, based on a 7-year backtest of price-target hit rate, returns after calls and number of ratings. The exact rank, hit rate and live calls are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Stephen Volkmann’s price-target hit rate is part of the members-only record in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). For comparison, the average analyst’s price targets were reached 53.6% of the time.
Stephen Volkmann (Jefferies) covers 50 stocks, mostly in industrials. The most frequently rated are CAT, DE, AGCO, CARR, ETN.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.