Every GDP and core PCE release since 2015: how far the S&P 500, the Nasdaq‑100 and long Treasuries moved on the day, the latest releases, the biggest moves, and what beats and misses did.
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Usually about what happens on any other day. Since Jan 2015, the S&P 500 fund (SPY) moved 0.72% on an average GDP day and 0.77% on an average core PCE day, up or down; that is close to a normal trading day (0.73%) for GDP and close to a normal trading day (0.73%) for PCE. It closed higher on 53% of 45 GDP days and 53% of 137 PCE days, against 55% of all trading days. On the latest 12 GDP days the median move was 0.36% (mean 0.37%, range 0.03% to 0.95%); on the latest 12 PCE days the median was 0.54% (mean 0.55%, range 0.02% to 1.68%).
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the market opens, so the whole trading day is the reaction. GDP measures the economy’s output for a quarter that has already ended. The PCE price index is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets; the core version leaves out food and energy. Both are often expected: CPI and producer price data arrive first, so forecasters can estimate core PCE closely. That is one reason these days tend to be quiet next to CPI days.
| Days | Release days | Since | S&P 500, average move | Median, last 12 | Closed higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP days | 45 | Jan 2015 | 0.72% | 0.36% | 53% |
| Core PCE days | 137 | Feb 2015 | 0.77% | 0.54% | 53% |
| All trading days | 2,583 | Jul 2016 | 0.73% | — | 55% |
| Days | GDP days | Core PCE days | All trading days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Release days | 45 | 137 | 2,583 |
| Since | Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | Jul 2016 |
| S&P 500, average move | 0.72% | 0.77% | 0.73% |
| Median, last 12 | 0.36% | 0.54% | — |
| Closed higher | 53% | 53% | 55% |
Price change from the close before to the close of the release day, last 8 release days (a day with both reports shows once). Both reports come out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the open.
The latest PCE report, on Sep 30, 2026, showed core prices up 0.2% against 0.3% expected for the month; SPY fell 0.21%. Some days carry both reports (Sep 30, 2026, Apr 9, 2026, Dec 23, 2025). On those days the table shows two rows with the same market move, and you cannot tell which report the market was reacting to. GDP is the annualized growth rate for the quarter; core PCE is the change in prices over one month.
| Release day | Report | Actual vs forecast | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Long Treasuries (TLT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Q2 GDP | 2.2% vs 1.5% | −0.21% | +0.25% | −0.58% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | August core PCE | 0.2% vs 0.3% | −0.21% | +0.25% | −0.58% |
| Aug 26, 2026 | July core PCE | 0.2% vs 0.2% | +0.02% | +0.09% | −0.20% |
| Jul 30, 2026 | June core PCE | 0.1% vs 0.2% | +1.68% | +3.30% | −0.06% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | May core PCE | 0.3% vs 0.3% | +0.14% | +0.81% | −0.03% |
| May 28, 2026 | April core PCE | 0.2% vs 0.3% | +0.55% | +0.84% | +0.52% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | March core PCE | 0.3% vs 0.3% | +0.99% | +0.93% | −0.10% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Q4 GDP | 0.5% vs 0.7% | +0.58% | +0.68% | −0.25% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | February core PCE | 0.4% vs 0.4% | +0.58% | +0.68% | −0.25% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | January core PCE | 0.4% vs 0.4% | −0.57% | −0.59% | −0.49% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | December core PCE | 0.4% vs 0.3% | +0.72% | +0.88% | −0.23% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | November core PCE | 0.2% vs 0.2% | +0.52% | +0.73% | +0.44% |
The largest was +5.84% for SPY on Mar 26, 2020, a Q4 GDP day. Most of these days had bigger news than the report. The 2020 dates fell in the pandemic crash and rebound. In 2022 the Fed was raising rates fast, and every inflation number mattered more. August 26, 2022 was also the day of the Fed chair’s Jackson Hole speech. December 21, 2018 came in the late‑2018 sell‑off. On 6 of these 10 days the report matched the forecast, so the report itself was not the main driver.
| Release day | Report | Actual vs forecast | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Long Treasuries (TLT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2020 | Q4 GDP | 2.1% vs 2.1% | +5.84% | +5.27% | +0.50% |
| Apr 29, 2022 | March core PCE | 0.3% vs 0.3% | −3.69% | −4.50% | −1.30% |
| Aug 26, 2022 | July core PCE | 0.1% vs 0.3% | −3.39% | −4.10% | +0.75% |
| Mar 27, 2020 | February core PCE | 0.2% vs 0.2% | −2.98% | −3.44% | +2.67% |
| Sep 28, 2015 | August core PCE | 0.1% vs 0.1% | −2.51% | −2.84% | +1.71% |
| Jan 28, 2022 | December core PCE | 0.5% vs 0.5% | +2.48% | +3.14% | +0.03% |
| Sep 29, 2022 | Q2 GDP | −0.6% vs −0.6% | −2.09% | −2.88% | −0.53% |
| Dec 21, 2018 | Q3 GDP | 3.4% vs 3.5% | −2.05% | −3.10% | −0.01% |
| Jun 28, 2016 | Q1 GDP | 1.1% vs 1.0% | +1.80% | +2.19% | +0.21% |
| Dec 22, 2022 | Q3 GDP | 3.2% vs 2.9% | −1.43% | −2.45% | −0.01% |
A little, for inflation. On the 19 days core PCE came in above the forecast, SPY moved −0.40% on average; on the 34 days below it, −0.04%. For GDP the gap was close to zero: +0.01% after 23 beats, −0.11% after 13 misses. These groups are small, and a few large days can swing an average. Treat the split as a pattern in the past, not a rule. Hotter inflation can mean higher interest rates for longer, which tends to weigh on stocks and on long bonds. The forecast is the consensus from the US economic calendar; later revisions are not used.
| Report | Actual vs forecast | Release days | S&P 500, average move |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | Growth above forecast | 23 | +0.01% |
| GDP | Growth below forecast | 13 | −0.11% |
| GDP | In line or no forecast | 9 | — |
| Core PCE | Inflation above forecast (hotter) | 19 | −0.40% |
| Core PCE | Inflation below forecast (cooler) | 34 | −0.04% |
| Core PCE | In line or no forecast | 84 | — |
Not necessarily. A move on a release day is a coincidence in time, not proof of cause. Earnings, Fed speeches, geopolitics and flows all trade on the same day. The day‑level data cannot separate them. The clearest sign of a real reaction is a large surprise followed by a matching move in both stocks and long Treasuries. Even then, other news may explain part of it. For the bigger picture of how inflation affects a portfolio, see inflation and your portfolio.
Mostly, they prepare rather than react. The next pair is close together: the Fed’s meeting ends October 28, 2026 (Federal Reserve FOMC calendar), and Q3 GDP (advance estimate) and September personal income and outlays are both scheduled for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern (BEA release schedule). See also the October 2026 Fed meeting.
None of this is a trade instruction. Related: the stock market on Fed days and how stocks react to the jobs report. Fund data: SPY.
Usually not much more than on a normal day. Since 2015, the S&P 500 fund (SPY) moved 0.72% on an average GDP day and 0.77% on an average core PCE day, up or down, against 0.73% on all trading days. Exent’s data as of Oct 20, 2026.
Both come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the stock market opens. GDP is quarterly; the PCE price index is monthly, in the personal income and outlays report. Sometimes both land on the same morning.
On average they did a little: on the 19 days core PCE beat the forecast, SPY averaged −0.40%, against −0.04% on the 34 cooler days. On most days core PCE matched the forecast, because CPI and producer price data come out first.
Hardly, on average. On the 23 days GDP growth beat the forecast, SPY averaged +0.01%; on the 13 days it missed, −0.11%.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis schedules Q3 2026 GDP (advance estimate) and September 2026 personal income and outlays, which includes PCE, for October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The Fed’s meeting runs October 27–28.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.