How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Dimensional U.S. Targeted Value ETF (market value $14.3 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.
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Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Dimensional U.S. Targeted Value ETF (DFAT) returned +62.3% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 13.6 percentage points, or +10.2% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | DFAT | S&P 500 | DFAT per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +24.7% | +12.0% | +24.7% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +69.3% | +87.4% | +19.2% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +62.3% | +75.9% | +10.2% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| DFAT | +24.7% | +69.3% | +62.3% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| DFAT per year | +24.7% | +19.2% | +10.2% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Beat | Lagged | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
DFAT can be a core retirement holding. It is Dimensional US Targeted Value: active small/mid-cap value with a profitability screen. It targets smaller, cheaper, more profitable US companies (about 1,500); a deliberate value tilt.
When it is the wrong choice: If you want low tracking error versus the market: targeted value deliberately behaves differently.
| ETF | Expense ratio | Why consider it |
|---|---|---|
| DFAT | 0.33% | this fund |
| VBR | 0.05% | index small value |
| AVUV | 0.25% | similar active approach |
Fits: Retirement ETFs in your 30s and 40s · Early retirement (FIRE). How to choose: Best ETFs for Retirement in 2026: How to Choose by Age and Situation.
Source: the fund’s active strategy and mechanics were checked on the Dimensional DFAT fund page on Oct 25, 2026. Expense ratios are Exent market data as of Oct 25, 2026; returns and drawdowns quoted here are 5‑year monthly total returns to September 30, 2026 (Exent market data). Educational, not a recommendation for your situation.
DFAT beat the S&P 500 in 1 of the 4 full calendar years shown.
| Year | DFAT | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +18.8% | +11.7% | +7.1% |
| 2025 | +8.7% | +17.7% | −9.0% |
| 2024 | +7.8% | +24.9% | −17.1% |
| 2023 | +20.9% | +26.2% | −5.3% |
| 2022 | −6.2% | −18.2% | +12.0% |
Over 5 years, DFAT had a Sharpe ratio of 0.40 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 20.4% and its beta 0.99: it tended to move about 1.0× as much as the market.
| Metric | DFAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +10.2% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 20.4% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.66 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −18.5% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
DFAT’s deepest fall in the crises below was −21.4% in the 2025 tariff selloff, against −19.0% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | DFAT | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 inflation bear market | −20.1% | −25.4% | −$20,150 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −21.4% | −19.0% | −$21,350 |
| Window | DFAT max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −9.6% |
| Last 3 years | −26.1% |
| Last 5 years | −26.1% |
| Last 10 years | −26.6% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, DFAT’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.75, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.52, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.48 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.
Adding a 5% DFAT position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.5%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | −0.06 | PNC | 0.82 |
| LLY | −0.03 | USB | 0.81 |
| PLTR | 0.08 | GS | 0.78 |
| NOW | 0.08 | BAC | 0.77 |
| DELL | 0.09 | PH | 0.76 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
As of Oct 20, 2026, DFAT held 1,212 positions; its 10 largest made up 7.0% of the fund. The largest was OVV (Ovintiv Inc.) at 0.89%.
| Holding | Name | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| OVV | Ovintiv Inc. | 0.89% |
| APA | APA Corporation | 0.84% |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | 0.81% |
| CNH | Cnh Industrial Nv Common Stock Eur.01 | 0.73% |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | 0.71% |
| SJM | The J. M. Smucker Company | 0.67% |
| BWA | BorgWarner Inc. | 0.61% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | 0.61% |
| AR | Antero Resources Corporation | 0.60% |
| RNR | Renaissancere Holdings Ltd Common Stock Usd1.0 | 0.56% |
From the fund’s latest published holdings. Overlap by weight adds up, for every stock both funds hold, the smaller of its two weights: 100% would mean the same portfolio. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For DFAT that is MDY. Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | SPAC and New Issue ETF | +455.5% | 8.3% |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares | +68.1% | 17.4% |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.8% |
| IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.9% |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +75.9% | 17.0% |
| 1557.T | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +78.6% | 20.7% |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total Intl Stock Idx Fund | +47.5% | 16.0% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | +84.3% | 22.3% |
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Holdings and weights are the fund’s latest published holdings; ETF overlap compares those holdings stock by stock.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
DFAT can be a core retirement holding. It is Dimensional US Targeted Value: active small/mid-cap value with a profitability screen. It targets smaller, cheaper, more profitable US companies (about 1,500); a deliberate value tilt. It is a poor fit if you want low tracking error versus the market: targeted value deliberately behaves differently.
DFAT charges 0.33% a year. Lower-cost ETFs to compare: VBR at 0.05% (index small value); AVUV at 0.25% (similar active approach). Expense ratios as of Oct 25, 2026 (issuer data where available, otherwise Exent market data); check that the exposure, not just the fee, matches what you want.
No. DFAT returned +62.3% (+10.2% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
DFAT fell −20.1% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, DFAT’s Sharpe ratio was 0.40 and its Sortino ratio 0.66, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
DFAT’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 20.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.99.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with DFAT over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.06), LLY (−0.03), PLTR (0.08). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.48 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.