AnalystsInsight

Daniel Arias (Stifel Nicolaus): Analyst Track Record and Price‑Target Accuracy

How often Daniel Arias’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 1,305 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.

Reviewed by:David, Senior AnalystPublished Oct 26, 2026Updated Nov 3, 20263 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 26

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; live calls are in Gems.

#902 rank (was #866)+4 new ratings (ILMN, AVTR, RGEN)4.6★ rating (was 4.7★)54.5% price‑target hit rate (was 54.1%)

Key takeaways

Daniel Arias ranks #901 of 1,148 analysts in Exent’s scoring (4.6★).
54.5% of price targets were reached over 7 years, versus 53.1% for the average analyst.
Median time to reach a target: 85 days; 47.6% of calls were up 12 months later.
Most‑covered stocks: ILMN, TMO, RGEN, MRVI.
Free on Exent: Daniel Arias’s full record, with ratings 3 days after publication.

Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →

In this article

Daniel Arias’s track record at a glance
How fast price targets were reached
Stocks Daniel Arias covers most
Exent’s top 50 analysts
Daniel Arias’s latest ratings
How Exent scores analysts

Daniel Arias’s track record at a glance

Daniel Arias of Stifel Nicolaus ranks #901 of the 1,148 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.6★ rating and a focus on healthcare. Over a 7‑year lookback, 54.5% of Daniel’s price targets were reached, 1.4 points above the 53.1% average across all analysts.

Metric	Daniel Arias	All analysts
Price‑target hit rate	54.5%	53.1%
Median days to hit target	85 days	93 days
Calls up after 12 months	47.6%	64.4%
Median 12‑month return of calls	−2.0%	+13.7%
Hit rate, last 2 years	65.8%	—
Average worst drop after a call	−26.4%	—
Ratings in the sample	1,305	—
Stocks covered	24	—

The full records of Exent’s top 50 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.

See the top-ranked analysts in Gems

How fast price targets were reached

Time to reach the target	Daniel Arias
Under 30 days	28.2%
30–90 days	24.5%
90–180 days	22.1%
Over 180 days	25.2%

Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.

Stocks Daniel Arias covers most

Stock	Ratings in the sample
ILMN	30
TMO	29
RGEN	25
MRVI	25
QGEN	24
MXCT	23
WAT	22
MASS	20

In the past year Daniel’s ratings were 68% Buy, 32% Hold and 0% Sell.

Exent’s top 50 analysts

Across 958,671 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.1% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 14.9% of the 942 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Nov 2, 2026).

Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.

Unlock the top 50 analysts

Daniel Arias’s latest ratings

Date	Stock	Action	Rating	Price target
Nov 2, 2026	???	???	???	???
Oct 30, 2026	ILMN	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$300.00
Oct 29, 2026	AVTR	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$18.00
Oct 28, 2026	RGEN	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$207.00
Oct 22, 2026	DHR	Maintained: Buy	Buy	$260.00
Oct 22, 2026	TMO	Maintained: Buy	Buy	$775.00
Sep 16, 2026	TMO	Maintained: Buy	Buy	$0.00
Sep 16, 2026	RGEN	Maintained: Buy	Buy	$0.00
Sep 15, 2026	ILMN	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$225.00
Sep 15, 2026	TMO	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$0.00

Nov 2, 2026
Stock
???
Action
???
Rating
???
Price target
???
Oct 30, 2026
Stock
ILMN
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$300.00
Oct 29, 2026
Stock
AVTR
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$18.00
Oct 28, 2026
Stock
RGEN
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$207.00
Oct 22, 2026
Stock
DHR
Action
Maintained: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$260.00
Oct 22, 2026
Stock
TMO
Action
Maintained: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$775.00
Sep 16, 2026
Stock
TMO
Action
Maintained: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$0.00
Sep 16, 2026
Stock
RGEN
Action
Maintained: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$0.00
Sep 15, 2026
Stock
ILMN
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$225.00
Sep 15, 2026
Stock
TMO
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$0.00

Daniel published 1 rating in the last 3 days, the latest on Nov 2, 2026. Daniel’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.

See the top-ranked analysts in Gems

How Exent scores analysts

Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Nov 2, 2026; ranking updated Nov 3, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Follow the analysts with the best records

Exent Gems shows live ratings from the top‑ranked analysts, without the 3‑day delay used on this page.
Gems are the stocks where several 4★+ analysts agree: Exent’s shortlist of high‑conviction ideas.
Check any idea against your own portfolio: correlation, concentration and crash exposure before you buy.

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Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

By Exent’s scoring Daniel Arias ranks #901 of 1,148 with a 4.6★ rating. 54.5% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 53.1%), and 47.6% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.

In Exent’s 7-year price-target backtest, 54.5% of Daniel Arias’s price targets were reached, with a median of 85 days to reach a target (all analysts: 53.1%).

Daniel Arias (Stifel Nicolaus) covers 24 stocks, mostly in healthcare. The most frequently rated are ILMN, TMO, RGEN, MRVI, QGEN.

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DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.

What changed since Oct 26

Key takeaways

Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data

How to Follow Wall Street Analysts the Smart Way: Track Records, Not Headlines

What Are Exent Gems? Top‑Analyst Agreement Explained