If you sold, or plan to, the hardest decision is the buy‑back. What waiting for calm has cost, how long past recoveries took, and the re‑entry rules investors use, with their pros and cons. With a market risk check that updates every trading day.
When the condition you set before selling is met. If you did not set one, set it now, in writing, before the next move in prices changes your mind. A re‑entry rule names what brings you back (a trend signal, a change in conditions, a price level or a date) and how much goes back in at each step.
Without a rule, many investors wait for calm, and calm usually arrives after much of the rebound. Some never come back. A 2022 study by MIT researchers found that the median investor who panic‑sells earns zero or negative returns, and that 30.9% of investors in the study never returned to risky assets, Bankrate reported on Yahoo Finance. This page is part of the portfolio protection guide; if you have not sold yet, start with should I sell my stocks before a crash.
Data through the close of Oct 20, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 3.5%. The S&P 500 is 1.3% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 6.4% above its 200‑day average (+7.9% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 9.4% a year, calmer than 71% of trading days since 2016.
Daily closes over the last year, through Oct 20, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
Through Oct 20, 2026. “vs 200‑day avg.” = how far the close sits above or below its 200‑day average.
| Index fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | From its high | vs 200‑day avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −1.2% | +13.1% | −1.3% | +6.4% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −3.5% | +17.0% | −5.5% | +6.8% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | −0.3% | +12.2% | −9.6% | −0.3% |
| Index fund | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | Russell 2000 (IWM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 days | −1.2% | −3.5% | −0.3% |
| Year to date | +13.1% | +17.0% | +12.2% |
| From its high | −1.3% | −5.5% | −9.6% |
| vs 200‑day avg. | +6.4% | +6.8% | −0.3% |
Last updated Oct 20, 2026. Members only.
| Exent regime pillar | Today |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | |
| Credit stress | |
| Economic cycle | |
| Sentiment | |
| Regime: Risk ON · Neutral · Risk OFF |
Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
Because the strongest days come while the news is still bad. In Exent’s data (Jul 2016 – Sep 2026), all 10 of the S&P 500’s best days came while the index was below its 200‑day average, and 8 of them within 10 trading days of one of the 10 worst. Three came in the two weeks after the COVID low of March 23, 2020: March 24 (+9.1%), March 26 (+5.8%) and April 6 (+6.7%).
| If you held the S&P 500 and… | Return a year |
|---|---|
| stayed invested every day | 15.2% |
| missed the 10 best days | 8.2% |
| missed the 20 best days | 4.9% |
| missed the 10 worst days | 22.9% |
| missed the 10 best and the 10 worst days | 15.5% |
A longer record shows the same pattern: Hartford Funds found that about 42% of the S&P 500’s strongest days in the last 20 years came during bear markets, and another 36% in the first two months of a new bull market. The 2025 selloff followed the same path. The S&P 500 hit its low for the year on April 8, and by June 25 it was less than 1% below its all‑time high, according to the same Bankrate report. An investor who waited for the trade news to settle would have bought back close to the old high.
Between about four months and two years from the peak, for every S&P 500 decline of 10% or more since mid‑2016:
| Peak | Trough | Fall | Back to the peak | Trading days, peak to recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Apr 2, 2018 | −10.2% | Aug 24, 2018 | 146 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −20.2% | Apr 29, 2019 | 150 |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −34.1% | Aug 18, 2020 | 126 |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −25.4% | Jan 19, 2024 | 513 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −19.0% | Jun 27, 2025 | 89 |
For a re‑entry decision, the pattern matters more than the averages. The fast crashes of 2020 and 2025 recovered before many investors felt safe again. The slow bear market of 2022 left more time, with rallies along the way that faded. A rule that has to work in both will cost something in one of them.
Five are common. Each trades speed against certainty: the faster a rule brings you back, the more often it buys before the low.
| Re‑entry rule | How it works | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200‑day average crossed back up | Buy back when the index closes above its 200‑day average | Objective; caught long recoveries | Buys after the first leg of the rebound; false signals in choppy markets |
| Staged re‑entry | Buy back in equal parts, for example thirds over three months | Limits regret either way; easy to follow | Lags a V‑shaped rebound; still needs a start date |
| Macro regime turns risk‑on | Buy back when a macro regime reading turns back to risk‑on | Reads conditions, not only price | Economic data arrives late and gets revised; needs a model you trust |
| Price level | Buy back if the index falls a set amount below your sale price | A clear target | May never trigger if you sold late: the 2020 and 2025 lows came five to seven weeks after the peak |
| Calendar date | Buy back on a fixed date, whatever happens | Ends the indecision | Arbitrary; ignores conditions |
The cost of a trend rule shows in the years after selloffs. In a hypothetical 200‑day backtest (Jan 2017 – Sep 2026, before costs and taxes), holding the S&P 500 while it closed above its 200‑day average and T‑bills otherwise returned 16.0% in 2019 against 31.2% for holding, and 12.0% in 2023 against 26.2%, because it bought back after the rebound had started:
| Year | Holding | With the 200‑day rule |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | −4.6% | −7.8% |
| 2019 | +31.2% | +16.0% |
| 2020 | +18.3% | +5.6% |
| 2021 | +28.7% | +28.7% |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −14.2% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | +12.0% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +17.7% | +12.5% |
| 2026 (to Sep 2026) | +12.1% | +9.4% |
Over the whole period the same rule cut the worst fall from 33.7% to 19.2%. Whether that trade is worth it depends on the exit rule too: see does the 200‑day moving average strategy work and what a macro regime score is.
Treat the cash as new money and pick a schedule. Going back in at once keeps you invested sooner; spreading it over a few months limits regret if prices fall after you buy. The trade‑offs are compared in buy the dip vs dollar‑cost averaging.
Illustrative: an investor who sold $600,000 of stocks could put back $200,000 now, $200,000 in a month and $200,000 in two months, with the dates set on day one. If the market falls in between, the later thirds buy lower; if it rises, the first third caught the whole move.
Waiting has a cost while you decide. T‑bills (BIL) returned 2.1% a year from mid‑2016 to September 2026, against 15.2% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Buying back is not taxed. If you sold at a loss in a taxable account, buying the same or a substantially identical security within 30 days disallows the loss (wash sale).
When the condition you set before selling is met, such as the index closing back above its 200-day average, a staged schedule, or a macro regime turning back to risk-on. Waiting for calm usually means buying back after much of the rebound.
Investors often set a rule now and follow it, for example buying back a third a month for three months, or on a signal they trust. In Exent’s data, all 10 of the S&P 500’s best days since mid-2016 came while the index was still below its 200-day average.
All at once keeps you invested sooner; stages limit regret if prices fall after you buy. The bigger risk is waiting with no rule: a 2022 MIT study found that 30.9% of investors in it never returned to risky assets.
It is objective and caught long recoveries, but it bought back after the first leg of the rebound. In a hypothetical backtest, the S&P 500 rule returned 16.0% in 2019 and 12.0% in 2023, against 31.2% and 26.2% for holding, before costs and taxes.
Since mid-2016, the S&P 500 got back to its old high 89 to 513 trading days after the peak in each decline of 10% or more. The 2020 crash took 126 trading days.
No, buying is not taxed. If you sold at a loss in a taxable account, buying the same or a substantially identical security within 30 days before or after the sale disallows the loss under the wash-sale rule.
Market Intelligence reads the market regime and tells you whether the backdrop favors taking risk or protecting capital.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.