Every US midterm since 1950 and what the S&P 500 did 3, 6 and 12 months later, against the same November date in other years. Plus the weak cases, the year‑to‑date split, and why the pattern may be coincidence.
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Historically, yes, and more than in an average year. Exent’s data on S&P 500 index closes covers all 19 US midterm elections from 1950 to 2022. Twelve months after election day the index was higher every time, by a mean of 15.1% and a median of 14.5%. The weakest year after was 1.1% (1986) and the strongest 33.2% (1954).
Across the 56 other years with a complete 12‑month window, the mean gain from the same November date was about half as large. Its 12‑month mean was 7.3%, and it was higher 38 times in 56. Starting from a presidential‑election November, the mean was 8.6% and the index was higher 12 times in 19.
| Held from election day | Midterm years: mean | Midterm: median | Midterm: higher | Other years: mean | Other years: higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 7.7% | 7.6% | 17 of 19 | 2.6% | 39 of 57 |
| 6 months | 14.1% | 16.9% | 19 of 19 | 4.2% | 38 of 57 |
| 12 months | 15.1% | 14.5% | 19 of 19 | 7.3% | 38 of 56 |
| Held from election day | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midterm years: mean | 7.7% | 14.1% | 15.1% |
| Midterm: median | 7.6% | 16.9% | 14.5% |
| Midterm: higher | 17 of 19 | 19 of 19 | 19 of 19 |
| Other years: mean | 2.6% | 4.2% | 7.3% |
| Other years: higher | 39 of 57 | 38 of 57 | 38 of 56 |
S&P 500 price index, no dividends. Other years start on the same election‑day‑equivalent date each November; one has no full 12 months yet. For scale, buying on any trading day from 1950 to 2025 and holding 12 months gave a mean of 9.5% and a median of 10.6%, and the index was higher 74.7% of the time (14,248 of 19,075 days). Past results, not a forecast.
It rose over the following year in each of the 19 cases, though the path and the size varied a lot. The table lists every midterm, how the index had done that year up to election day, the change 3, 6 and 12 months later, and the deepest fall within that calendar year.
| Midterm | Election day | Year to date at election | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Deepest fall in the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | Nov 7, 1950 | 15.3% | 13.6% | 16.9% | 16.2% | −14.0% |
| 1954 | Nov 2, 1954 | 28.1% | 15.2% | 19.7% | 33.2% | −4.4% |
| 1958 | Nov 4, 1958 | 28.9% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | −4.4% |
| 1962 | Nov 6, 1962 | −18.4% | 13.8% | 19.2% | 24.8% | −26.4% |
| 1966 | Nov 8, 1966 | −12.7% | 8.7% | 17.2% | 12.9% | −22.2% |
| 1970 | Nov 3, 1970 | −8.5% | 14.7% | 22.6% | 12.7% | −25.9% |
| 1974 | Nov 5, 1974 | −23.0% | 5.1% | 19.9% | 18.7% | −37.6% |
| 1978 | Nov 7, 1978 | −1.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | −13.6% |
| 1982 | Nov 2, 1982 | 12.2% | 4.2% | 17.9% | 19.9% | −16.6% |
| 1986 | Nov 4, 1986 | 16.5% | 13.6% | 17.5% | 1.1% | −9.4% |
| 1990 | Nov 6, 1990 | −11.8% | 14.9% | 22.0% | 25.1% | −19.9% |
| 1994 | Nov 8, 1994 | −0.2% | 3.3% | 12.5% | 27.1% | −8.9% |
| 1998 | Nov 3, 1998 | 14.5% | 14.5% | 21.9% | 22.0% | −19.3% |
| 2002 | Nov 5, 2002 | −20.3% | −7.8% | 1.2% | 14.9% | −33.8% |
| 2006 | Nov 7, 2006 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | −7.7% |
| 2010 | Nov 2, 2010 | 7.0% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.7% | −16.0% |
| 2014 | Nov 4, 2014 | 8.9% | 1.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | −7.4% |
| 2018 | Nov 6, 2018 | 3.1% | −0.9% | 6.4% | 11.7% | −19.8% |
| 2022 | Nov 8, 2022 | −19.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 14.5% | −25.4% |
Base is the close on election day, or the previous trading day when markets were closed for the election (1950 to 1966). Forward changes use the close on or before the same calendar date 3, 6 and 12 months later. Price only. How individual months have behaved over the same period is in monthly returns.
Across complete calendar years in this sample, midterm years had deeper falls inside the year than other years. The median peak‑to‑trough drop within a midterm calendar year was −16.6% (mean −17.5%), against −9.9% in other years. The worst was −37.6% in 1974. Nine of the 19 midterm years were down for the year at election day.
| Within the calendar year | Midterm years (19) | Other years (57) |
|---|---|---|
| Median peak‑to‑trough fall | −16.6% | −9.9% |
| Mean peak‑to‑trough fall | −17.5% | −12.4% |
This matters for reading the post‑election gains. Several of the later gains followed negative year‑to‑date returns. Years like 1962, 1974, 1990 and 2022 had fallen 12% to 23% by election day, and the index then recovered. How often falls of that size happen in general is in how risky the stock market is right now.
Yes, in the past the gains were smaller when the index was already up. In the 10 midterm years when the S&P 500 was higher year to date on election day, the next 12 months gave a mean of 13.0% and a median of 11.4%, with a low of 1.1%. In the 9 years when it was down, the mean was 17.5% and the median 14.9%, with a low of 6.4%.
| Year to date at election | Cases | 3 months: mean | 6 months: mean | 12 months: mean | 12 months: median | 12 months: lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | 10 | 8.3% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 1.1% |
| Down | 9 | 7.1% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 6.4% |
| Year to date at election | Up | Down |
|---|---|---|
| Cases | 10 | 9 |
| 3 months: mean | 8.3% | 7.1% |
| 6 months: mean | 14.0% | 14.2% |
| 12 months: mean | 13.0% | 17.5% |
| 12 months: median | 11.4% | 14.9% |
| 12 months: lowest | 1.1% | 6.4% |
Both groups were positive after 12 months in every case. But with 10 and 9 cases, one or two years can swing the averages, so the gap is a hint, not a rule. The three weakest 12‑month results (1986, 2010 and 2014) all came in up years.
At the three‑month endpoint, yes in two cases: 2002 and 2018 were the two midterms followed by a lower index three months later. Over 12 months none were lower, and 1986 was the weakest.
The lesson from these three: the midterm calendar did not protect anyone from a bear market or a crash already under way, or from one that arrived later. This study does not identify what caused the moves in 2002 or 1987. A record of how markets reacted to another scheduled event is in the stock market on Fed days.
Nobody has proven why. The pattern is a correlation in 19 observations, so treat it as coincidence, not cause. Analysts usually offer four theories:
Each theory has holes, and the data has real limits:
The 2026 US midterm elections are on Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026. On Oct 26, 2026 the S&P 500 closed at 7,676.77, up 12.1% for the year so far. Its highest close of 2026 was 7,818.93 on Oct 6.
The index was up for the year on Oct 26; whether it is still up on election day is not yet known. In the past, the up‑year group’s 12‑month gains were smaller, but groups of 10 and 9 cases do not make a forecast for 2026. Seasonal averages also say nothing about today’s valuations, credit or growth. Where valuations stand is in is the S&P 500 overvalued, and what history says about buying near a high is in should I invest at an all‑time high. Education, not advice: before acting on any calendar pattern, investors often check their time horizon and what a 20% fall would cost them in dollars. Illustrative: on a $500,000 portfolio that is $100,000 on paper.
The study uses daily closes of the S&P 500 index from 1950 to Oct 26, 2026, price only, without dividends. Midterm election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November in 1950, 1954 and every fourth year through 2022. The base is the close on that day, or the previous trading day when markets were closed for the election (1950 to 1966). Forward changes use the close on or before the same calendar date 3, 6 and 12 months later.
The comparison group uses the same November date in each of the other 57 years from 1951 to 2025. The all‑days base rate uses every trading day from 1950 to Oct 24, 2025 with a full 12 months after it. The deepest fall is the largest peak‑to‑trough drop of closes inside each calendar year. Returns exclude dividends; total returns were not calculated. These are past results of one index, not a forecast.
A seasonal average describes 19 past years. It does not describe the market you are investing in this week.
Historically, yes. The S&P 500 was higher 12 months after all 19 midterms from 1950 to 2022, with a mean gain of 15.1%, against 7.3% from the same November date in other years. Nineteen cases is a small sample and not a forecast.
The S&P 500 closed at 3,828.11 on Nov 8, 2022, after falling 19.7% that year. It was up 7.6% three months later, 8.1% after six months and 14.5% after 12 months, price only.
Over three months, twice: 2002 (−7.8%) and 2018 (−0.9%). At the 12‑month endpoint, none of the 19 cases from 1950 to 2022 was negative (losses in between were possible); the weakest result was a 1.1% gain after the 1986 midterm, when the October 1987 crash erased most of the earlier rise.
Not always bad, but bumpier. The median fall from peak to trough within a midterm year was 16.6% from 1950 to 2022, against 9.9% in other years. There is no proven cause; 19 years is a small sample.
The 2026 US midterms are on Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026. On Oct 26, 2026 the S&P 500 closed at 7,676.77, up 12.1% for the year, below its 2026 high close of 7,818.93 on Oct 6.
In the past, gains were smaller after up years. When the S&P 500 was up year to date at election day (10 cases), the next 12 months averaged 13.0%; after down years (9 cases), 17.5%. The groups are too small to rely on.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.