QLD vs TQQQ: 2× or 3× Nasdaq‑100?
Two ProShares funds on the same index. What 2× and 3× daily leverage on the Nasdaq‑100 returned since 2016, how deep each fell, why choppy years hurt more than the labels suggest, and what an exit rule changed.
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SSO vs UPRO vs SPXL: 2× or 3× S&P 500 ETF?
Three funds on one index. What 2× and 3× daily leverage on the S&P 500 returned over ten years, how far each fell in the last four selloffs, why UPRO and SPXL are near twins, and what the extra leverage really bought.
Key takeaways
- No fund is best; it depends on the fall you can sit through. From Jul 2016 to Sep 2026, SSO (2×) returned 24.2% a year, worst fall −59.3%; UPRO and SPXL (3×) about 29.3%, worst fall near −77% (Exent’s data).
- The third unit of leverage added less than the second: going from 1× to 2× added 9.0 points a year, going from 2× to 3× added 5.1 points, while the worst fall deepened by another 17.5 points.
- UPRO (ProShares) and SPXL (Direxion) both target 3× the S&P 500’s daily return and never differed by more than 1.0 point in a calendar year since 2017. The differences are issuer and fees, not risk.
- Daily reset cuts both ways: in 2020 the S&P 500 returned 18.3%, SSO 21.9% and UPRO only 10.1%, because the COVID crash came in the middle of the year.
- FINRA warned in 2009 that leveraged ETFs typically are unsuitable for retail investors who hold them longer than one trading session.
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In this article
- SSO vs UPRO vs SPXL: what is the difference?
- Market risk check, updated every trading day
- 2× or 3× S&P 500 ETF: what does the extra leverage buy?
- How much did SSO, UPRO and SPXL lose in crashes?
- UPRO vs SPXL: is there a difference?
- Why don’t 2× and 3× funds return 2× and 3× over a year?
- Does an exit rule change the 2× vs 3× choice?
SSO vs UPRO vs SPXL: what is the difference?
SSO aims for 2× the S&P 500’s daily return; UPRO and SPXL both aim for 3×, from two different issuers. All three reset their leverage every day, so over months and years their returns drift away from a clean 2× or 3×. They are trading tools, and the holdings that most need a plan for portfolio protection.
| Fund | Issuer | Daily target | Launched | Expense ratio, gross / net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSO (Ultra S&P500) | ProShares | 2× S&P 500 | Jun 2006 | 0.88% / 0.84% |
| UPRO (UltraPro S&P500) | ProShares | 3× S&P 500 | Jun 2009 | 0.88% / 0.88% |
| SPXL (Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X) | Direxion | 3× S&P 500 | Nov 2008 | 0.95% / 0.84% |
| Fund | SSO (Ultra S&P500) | UPRO (UltraPro S&P500) | SPXL (Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Issuer | ProShares | ProShares | Direxion |
| Daily target | 2× S&P 500 | 3× S&P 500 | 3× S&P 500 |
| Launched | Jun 2006 | Jun 2009 | Nov 2008 |
| Expense ratio, gross / net | 0.88% / 0.84% | 0.88% / 0.88% | 0.95% / 0.84% |
Fees as listed by the issuers in October 2026 (ProShares SSO, ProShares UPRO, Direxion SPXL fact sheet); the net figures for SSO and SPXL rely on fee waivers that run to 2027. Here is what each returned, held the whole time (Jul 2016 – Sep 2026, daily closes, dividends reinvested):
| Fund | Return a year | Volatility | Worst fall | Worst fall dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.8% | −33.7% | Feb 2020 → Mar 2020 |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | 24.2% | 35.6% | −59.3% | Feb 2020 → Mar 2020 |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | 29.3% | 53.3% | −76.8% | Feb 2020 → Mar 2020 |
| 3× S&P 500 (SPXL) | 29.4% | 53.0% | −76.9% | Feb 2020 → Mar 2020 |
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- Return a year
- 15.2%
- Volatility
- 17.8%
- Worst fall
- −33.7%
- Worst fall dates
- Feb 2020 → Mar 2020
- 2× S&P 500 (SSO)
- Return a year
- 24.2%
- Volatility
- 35.6%
- Worst fall
- −59.3%
- Worst fall dates
- Feb 2020 → Mar 2020
- 3× S&P 500 (UPRO)
- Return a year
- 29.3%
- Volatility
- 53.3%
- Worst fall
- −76.8%
- Worst fall dates
- Feb 2020 → Mar 2020
- 3× S&P 500 (SPXL)
- Return a year
- 29.4%
- Volatility
- 53.0%
- Worst fall
- −76.9%
- Worst fall dates
- Feb 2020 → Mar 2020
Market risk check, updated every trading day
Data through the close of Oct 20, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% over the last five trading days, and the Nasdaq‑100 fell 3.5%. The S&P 500 is 1.3% below its record close of Oct 6: a small dip from its record. It is 6.4% above its 200‑day average (+7.9% a week earlier). Its 20‑day volatility is 9.4% a year, calmer than 71% of trading days since 2016.
The S&P 500 vs its 200‑day average
Daily closes over the last year, through Oct 20, 2026. Green: the index above its average; red: below it.
−1.3%from its record closeRecord: Oct 6, 2026
+6.4%vs its 200‑day averageA week earlier: +7.9%
9.4%20‑day volatility (a year)Median since 2016: 12.2%
−1.2%last five trading daysNasdaq‑100: −3.5%
Leveraged funds this year: the fund vs its multiple
Year‑to‑date return through Oct 20, 2026: what each fund returned next to its multiple times the index’s return. The gap is the daily reset at work.
| Fund | Last 5 days | Year to date | Multiple × index | From its high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −2.4% | +21.6% | +26.2% | −3.1% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −3.7% | +29.5% | +39.3% | −5.1% |
| 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD) | −7.2% | +27.2% | +33.9% | −11.1% |
| 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ) | −10.7% | +33.8% | +50.9% | −19.3% |
| 3× Russell 2000 (TNA) | −1.6% | +22.5% | +36.7% | −48.2% |
| 3× chip stocks (SOXL) | −23.5% | +132.1% | +198.4% | −67.6% |
- 2× S&P 500 (SSO)
- Last 5 days
- −2.4%
- Year to date
- +21.6%
- Multiple × index
- +26.2%
- From its high
- −3.1%
- 3× S&P 500 (UPRO)
- Last 5 days
- −3.7%
- Year to date
- +29.5%
- Multiple × index
- +39.3%
- From its high
- −5.1%
- 2× Nasdaq‑100 (QLD)
- Last 5 days
- −7.2%
- Year to date
- +27.2%
- Multiple × index
- +33.9%
- From its high
- −11.1%
- 3× Nasdaq‑100 (TQQQ)
- Last 5 days
- −10.7%
- Year to date
- +33.8%
- Multiple × index
- +50.9%
- From its high
- −19.3%
- 3× Russell 2000 (TNA)
- Last 5 days
- −1.6%
- Year to date
- +22.5%
- Multiple × index
- +36.7%
- From its high
- −48.2%
- 3× chip stocks (SOXL)
- Last 5 days
- −23.5%
- Year to date
- +132.1%
- Multiple × index
- +198.4%
- From its high
- −67.6%
Exent macro regime score, today
Last updated Oct 20, 2026. Members only.
| Exent regime pillar | Today |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | |
| Credit stress | |
| Economic cycle | |
| Sentiment | |
| Regime: Risk ON · Neutral · Risk OFF |
Price trend and volatility show what the market has already done. Exent’s macro regime score reads the backdrop behind it (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment) and classifies it as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. Market intel members see today’s reading and get an alert when it changes.
2× or 3× S&P 500 ETF: what does the extra leverage buy?
Less return than the label suggests, and much more risk. Doubling the S&P 500 lifted the return from 15.2% to 24.2% a year. Tripling it lifted it only to 29.3%, while volatility rose from 35.6% to 53.3% and the worst fall from −59.3% to −76.8%. Each step of leverage bought less return per unit of risk than the one before.
In dollars the gap is stark. An illustrative $100,000 held for the whole period, and the loss a $500,000 position took at its worst point:
| Illustrative | $100,000 grew to (Jul 2016 – Sep 2026) | Worst fall on $500,000 | Gain needed to get back |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $426,300 | −$168,500 | +50.8% |
| 2× (SSO) | $920,700 | −$296,500 | +145.7% |
| 3× (UPRO) | $1,393,100 | −$384,000 | +331.0% |
The final values came from a decade in which the S&P 500 returned 15.2% a year and recovered every big fall within about two years. A loss of 77% needs a gain of 331% to get back to even (loss recovery math), so a slower recovery would have changed the result. The same pattern holds on the Nasdaq‑100: QLD vs TQQQ.
How much did SSO, UPRO and SPXL lose in crashes?
The 3× funds lost about half their value or more in each of the four selloffs since 2018, and three quarters in the COVID crash. The table shows each fund’s largest peak‑to‑trough fall inside each selloff.
| Fund | Q4 2018 | COVID 2020 | 2022 bear | 2025 tariffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −19.3% | −33.7% | −24.5% | −18.8% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | −36.5% | −59.3% | −46.7% | −35.1% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | −50.3% | −76.8% | −63.9% | −48.9% |
| 3× S&P 500 (SPXL) | −50.2% | −76.9% | −63.8% | −48.9% |
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- Q4 2018
- −19.3%
- COVID 2020
- −33.7%
- 2022 bear
- −24.5%
- 2025 tariffs
- −18.8%
- 2× S&P 500 (SSO)
- Q4 2018
- −36.5%
- COVID 2020
- −59.3%
- 2022 bear
- −46.7%
- 2025 tariffs
- −35.1%
- 3× S&P 500 (UPRO)
- Q4 2018
- −50.3%
- COVID 2020
- −76.8%
- 2022 bear
- −63.9%
- 2025 tariffs
- −48.9%
- 3× S&P 500 (SPXL)
- Q4 2018
- −50.2%
- COVID 2020
- −76.9%
- 2022 bear
- −63.8%
- 2025 tariffs
- −48.9%
The study window misses the worst crisis these funds faced. SSO, which launched in 2006, fell 85.5% in the 2007–09 financial crisis while SPY fell 56.5%, in Exent’s data. UPRO and SPXL launched in 2009 and late 2008, so their records skip most of it. More on the pattern: how much leveraged ETFs lose in a crash.
UPRO vs SPXL: is there a difference?
In results, almost none. UPRO returned 29.3% a year and SPXL 29.4%; their worst falls were −76.8% and −76.9% on the same days. In the ten calendar years from 2017 the two never differed by more than 1.0 point (2023: 68.5% vs 69.5%).
The differences are practical. They come from different issuers, ProShares and Direxion, and list different gross and net fees. UPRO builds its 3× exposure partly with derivatives: about half the fund sits in index stocks, and the rest of the exposure comes from swaps with banks and S&P 500 futures, according to a 24/7 Wall St. analysis on Yahoo Finance (July 2026). Investors who compare the two usually look at fees, trading volume and bid‑ask spreads. The leverage, and the risk, are the same.
Why don’t 2× and 3× funds return 2× and 3× over a year?
Because they multiply each day’s move, not the year’s. The SEC’s investor bulletin on leveraged and inverse ETFs explains that returns over weeks, months or years can differ significantly from the daily target, and that volatility magnifies the gap. In the steady years 2017, 2019 and 2021 the funds beat their multiple; in years with a crash or wide swings, and in every year since 2023, they fell short.
| Year | Index (SPY) | 2× the index | The fund (SSO) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +21.7% | +43.4% | +45.0% |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −9.2% | −13.9% |
| 2019 | +31.2% | +62.4% | +64.2% |
| 2020 | +18.3% | +36.6% | +21.9% |
| 2021 | +28.7% | +57.4% | +61.0% |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −36.4% | −38.7% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | +52.4% | +46.9% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +49.8% | +44.8% |
| 2025 | +17.7% | +35.4% | +26.7% |
| 2026 (to Sep 2026) | +12.1% | +24.2% | +19.9% |
| Year | Index (SPY) | 3× the index | The fund (UPRO) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +21.7% | +65.1% | +71.4% |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −13.8% | −25.1% |
| 2019 | +31.2% | +93.6% | +102.4% |
| 2020 | +18.3% | +54.9% | +10.1% |
| 2021 | +28.7% | +86.1% | +98.6% |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −54.6% | −56.8% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | +78.6% | +68.5% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +74.7% | +63.6% |
| 2025 | +17.7% | +53.1% | +31.9% |
| 2026 (to Sep 2026) | +12.1% | +36.3% | +27.2% |
2021 was a smooth year: the S&P 500 rose 28.7% and UPRO 98.6%, more than three times. 2020 and 2025 each had a sharp crash and rebound: UPRO returned 10.1% and 31.9%, far below three times the index. The 3× fund lost more to this drag than the 2× fund did. See 2× leveraged strategy risk and leveraged ETF decay.
Does an exit rule change the 2× vs 3× choice?
It shrank the falls on both and cut the returns on both. In this hypothetical backtest (Jan 2017 – Sep 2026), each fund was held while the S&P 500 closed above its 200‑day average the day before and swapped for T‑bills otherwise; no trading costs or taxes.
| Fund | Hold: a year | Hold: worst fall | 200‑day rule: a year | Rule: worst fall | Time invested |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 15.1% | −33.7% | 10.3% | −19.2% | 82% |
| 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | 23.6% | −59.3% | 16.2% | −36.7% | 82% |
| 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) | 28.0% | −76.8% | 20.6% | −52.2% | 82% |
| Fund | S&P 500 (SPY) | 2× S&P 500 (SSO) | 3× S&P 500 (UPRO) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold: a year | 15.1% | 23.6% | 28.0% |
| Hold: worst fall | −33.7% | −59.3% | −76.8% |
| 200‑day rule: a year | 10.3% | 16.2% | 20.6% |
| Rule: worst fall | −19.2% | −36.7% | −52.2% |
| Time invested | 82% | 82% | 82% |
The rule cut UPRO’s worst fall from −76.8% to −52.2% and SSO’s from −59.3% to −36.7%. It also gave up 7.4 points a year on each, because it switched 58 times and often bought back higher after false alarms. In a taxable account each exit is a taxable sale. More on exits for leverage: when it is safe to hold leveraged ETFs. FINRA Regulatory Notice 09‑31 describes these funds as products that typically are unsuitable for retail investors holding them longer than one trading session.
How to decide when leverage fits, with Exent
- Exent Predictive Market Intelligence publishes a daily macro regime score (Risk ON, Neutral, Risk OFF) from four pillars: liquidity (money flowing through the system), credit stress (strain in credit markets), the economic cycle (where the economy is) and sentiment (investor mood).
- Six model allocations show how exposure can follow the regime, including a 2× model that uses leverage only in Risk ON and steps aside to cash in Risk OFF.
- Members get an alert when the regime changes, plus a daily macro briefing with cited sources.
- Exent’s portfolio analysis replays your own holdings, leveraged funds included, through 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 and shows the loss in dollars.
Frequently asked questions
Neither is better in general. From July 2016 to September 2026, UPRO returned 29.3% a year against 24.2% for SSO, but its worst fall was 76.8% against 59.3%, in Exent’s data. The choice comes down to how deep a loss an investor can hold through.
Both aim for three times the daily return of the S&P 500. UPRO is issued by ProShares and SPXL by Direxion. Their returns were nearly identical over the last decade; they differ mainly in fees and trading volume.
Over the last decade the 3x funds returned more, but the extra leverage added only about 5 points a year over 2x while deepening the worst fall from about 59% to 77%. FINRA has warned that such funds typically are unsuitable for retail investors who hold them longer than one trading session.
UPRO fell 76.8% from February 19 to March 23, 2020, while the S&P 500 fund SPY fell 33.7%. It got back to its February 2020 high in January 2021.
There is no single best one. SSO offers 2x with smaller falls; UPRO and SPXL offer 3x with nearly identical results. Fees, trading volume and, above all, the size of loss an investor can tolerate decide the fit.
Because of daily reset. The S&P 500 fell 34% in five weeks and then rebounded, and a 3x fund that loses 77% needs a huge gain to recover. UPRO returned 10.1% in 2020 while the index returned 18.3%.
Know when to hold the index, and when to step aside.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.