Fifty years of month‑end gold/silver readings since 1975: where the ratio stands, its record highs and lows, and what the S&P 500 did over the next 3, 6 and 12 months after the ratio was in its top tenth, compared with all months.
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Historically, stocks did slightly better than usual after the ratio’s highest readings, not worse. Of the 621 month‑ends from January 1975 to September 2026, 63 were in the ratio’s top tenth, at 85.6 or above. Over the next 12 months the S&P 500 rose in 60 of those 63 months (overlapping windows; 14 of 15 separate runs), compared with 78% of all months. The mean gain was 15.1%, against 10.3% for all months.
The gold/silver ratio is the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver. A high ratio means gold has outrun silver, which is why it is often read as a fear gauge. This study uses Exent’s market data: daily closes of gold and silver and the S&P 500 index, measured at each month‑end. Returns are price only, without dividends.
| S&P 500 over the next… | After top-tenth months (≥ 85.6) | After all months | After bottom-tenth months (≤ 36.5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months: mean / median | +4.2% / +3.9% | +2.5% / +2.7% | +1.4% / +0.9% |
| 3 months: share positive | 79% (63 months) | 68% (618) | 59% (63) |
| 6 months: mean / median | +8.0% / +6.5% | +5.0% / +5.4% | +2.7% / +2.4% |
| 6 months: share positive | 89% (63) | 73% (615) | 62% (63) |
| 12 months: mean / median | +15.1% / +13.5% | +10.3% / +12.0% | +4.9% / +1.9% |
| 12 months: share positive | 95% (63) | 78% (609) | 60% (63) |
Narrower than for all months, but never risk‑free. The middle half of 12‑month results after a high reading ran from +7.4% to +19.4%, and the worst was −10.3% (from the end of March 2019, a window that ended in the March 2020 crash). Across all months, the worst 12‑month result was −44.8%, in the 2008 financial crisis, when the ratio was not in its top tenth.
| S&P 500 over the next… | Top-tenth months: middle half | Top-tenth: worst / best | All months: middle half | All months: worst / best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | +0.9% to +8.0% | −9.7% / +20.0% | −1.2% to +7.1% | −30.2% / +24.9% |
| 6 months | +3.4% to +12.8% | −11.8% / +30.1% | −1.0% to +11.7% | −42.7% / +40.3% |
| 12 months | +7.4% to +19.4% | −10.3% / +53.7% | +1.6% to +19.9% | −44.8% / +53.7% |
| S&P 500 over the next… | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-tenth months: middle half | +0.9% to +8.0% | +3.4% to +12.8% | +7.4% to +19.4% |
| Top-tenth: worst / best | −9.7% / +20.0% | −11.8% / +30.1% | −10.3% / +53.7% |
| All months: middle half | −1.2% to +7.1% | −1.0% to +11.7% | +1.6% to +19.9% |
| All months: worst / best | −30.2% / +24.9% | −42.7% / +40.3% | −44.8% / +53.7% |
There were 15 separate runs of high readings, all since 1990. Counting each run once, from its first month, the S&P 500 rose over the next 12 months in 14 of 15 cases, with a median gain of 14.4%. Over 3 months it rose in only 10 of 15, with a median of 2.1%: the short‑term path was much less steady.
| Run (month-ends) | Months | Ratio at entry | S&P 500 next 3 mo | Next 6 mo | Next 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1990 – May 1991 | 8 | 91.2 | +13.1% | +23.5% | +29.1% |
| Jul 1991 – Feb 1992 | 8 | 90.9 | +1.2% | +5.4% | +9.4% |
| Jul 1992 – Mar 1993 | 9 | 91.8 | −1.3% | +3.4% | +5.6% |
| Sep 1993 | 1 | 87.5 | +2.1% | −2.9% | +0.8% |
| Nov 2018 | 1 | 86.2 | +0.9% | +1.0% | +13.8% |
| Mar – Jul 2019 | 5 | 85.9 | +3.8% | +4.5% | −10.3% |
| Sep 2019 | 1 | 86.7 | +8.2% | −11.8% | +13.0% |
| Nov 2019 | 1 | 86.4 | −5.9% | −3.1% | +15.8% |
| Jan – Jun 2020 | 6 | 88.2 | −9.7% | +1.4% | +15.2% |
| Jun – Oct 2022 | 5 | 88.8 | −5.3% | +1.4% | +17.6% |
| Feb 2023 | 1 | 87.2 | +5.9% | +11.7% | +27.7% |
| Oct 2023 | 1 | 86.9 | +15.5% | +20.1% | +36.0% |
| Dec 2023 – Apr 2024 | 5 | 86.0 | +10.2% | +14.5% | +25.2% |
| Aug 2024 | 1 | 86.7 | +6.8% | +5.4% | +14.4% |
| Nov 2024 – Aug 2025 | 10 | 86.6 | −1.3% | −2.0% | +13.5% |
The two eras behaved differently. The 26 high months of 1990–93 were followed by a 9.9% mean (7.6% median) 12‑month gain; the 37 high months of 2018–25 by an 18.8% mean (16.3% median). Both eras were mostly rising markets after a recession or a crash, and that backdrop, not the ratio, explains much of the result.
Since 1975 the ratio has ranged from about 16 to about 126, with a month‑end median of 65.4. The record daily close was 125.5 on Mar 18, 2020, during the COVID crash, when silver fell much harder than gold. The low was 16.5 on Mar 17, 1980, at the end of the 1979–80 silver spike. The ratio has drifted higher over the decades, so a reading that was extreme in the 1980s is ordinary today.
| Decade (month-ends) | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975–79 | 18.6 | 32.5 | 43.4 |
| 1980s | 17.6 | 51.0 | 76.8 |
| 1990s | 46.3 | 74.4 | 97.8 |
| 2000s | 46.3 | 60.6 | 80.7 |
| 2010s | 32.0 | 68.8 | 92.2 |
| 2020s (to Sep 2026) | 56.3 | 82.0 | 113.2 |
On Oct 22, 2026 the ratio closed at 73.8 (gold $4,060, silver $55.01). The last month‑end in the top tenth was August 2025 (86.3); silver’s rally then pulled the ratio to 60.4 by the end of January 2026. These are past readings, not a forecast.
Mostly because of timing. The ratio tended to peak during or just after a shock: the 1990 recession and Gulf War, the 2020 crash, the 2022 bear market. Silver, which is also an industrial metal, fell harder than gold, pushing the ratio up while stocks were already down. What followed in those cases was a recovery. The ratio described fear that had mostly happened; it did not predict what came next.
That pattern matches how stocks behaved after other stress readings, for example after the assets that held up when stocks fell. It also shows why a single ratio is a weak guide on its own; investors usually read it next to others, such as the copper‑to‑gold ratio, as part of a set of cross‑asset signals.
The metals themselves are covered in whether gold is a hedge. Past results after a high reading do not tell you what the next 12 months will bring.
Since 1975, the top tenth of month-end readings started at 85.6. The median month-end was 65.4, and the record daily close was 125.5 on Mar 18, 2020.
It did not in the history since 1975: after top-tenth readings the S&P 500 rose over the next 12 months in 14 of 15 separate episodes, but neighbouring months overlap and the worst 12-month result was still a loss. Past results are not a forecast.
It closed at 73.8 on Oct 22, 2026, with gold at $4,060 and silver at $55.01. The month-end median since 1975 was 65.4.
The lowest daily close since 1975 was 16.5 on Mar 17, 1980, at the end of the 1979 to 1980 silver spike. Month-end readings at or below 36.5 occurred almost only between 1975 and 1983.
Silver is both a precious and an industrial metal, so it tends to fall harder than gold when growth fears hit. In March 2020 that pushed the ratio to a record.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.