Do Bonds Still Hedge Stocks After 2022?
For two decades, Treasuries tended to rise when stocks fell. In 2022 they fell together. Here is how the stock‑bond relationship has changed, which bonds helped in which crash, and what a bond hedge costs.
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What Goes Up When Stocks Go Down? A Down‑Day Scorecard
We checked how bonds, T‑bills, gold, silver and stock sectors moved on every day the S&P 500 fell 1% or more since 2016. Here is what rose, how often, and how 2022 and 2026 broke the usual pattern.
Key takeaways
- On the 280 days since mid-2016 when the S&P 500 fell 1% or more, long Treasuries were the most reliable riser: up on 59% of them, +0.25% on average. Gold rose on only 45%.
- No stock sector fund rose on most down days. Utilities rose on 25% of them, energy on 20% and consumer staples on 16%.
- T-bills held their value (about +0.01% a day) but did not offset any stock losses.
- In 2022 the bond cushion failed: long Treasuries rose on 48% of down days and 7–10 year Treasuries on 40%.
- In 2026 so far, staples, utilities and energy rose on 60% of the 20 down days, while gold fell on 75% of them.
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In this article
- What goes up when stocks go down?
- The down‑day scorecard: how each fund moved
- Do bonds go up when stocks fall?
- Is gold a safe haven on down days?
- Which stock sectors hold up best in a selloff?
- What happened on the latest down day, Oct 22, 2026?
- What are the safest investments when stocks fall?
- What to check in your own portfolio
What goes up when stocks go down?
Usually, long‑term US Treasury bonds, and not much else. In Exent’s data (daily adjusted closes, dividends included, May 27, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026), the S&P 500 fund SPY fell 1% or more on 280 days. On those days, the 20+ year Treasury fund (TLT) rose on 59% of them. The 7–10 year Treasury fund (IEF) rose on 59% too, with smaller moves.
Everything else was weaker than its reputation. Gold (GLD) rose on 45% of down days, slightly less than a coin flip. Silver (SLV) rose on 36%. Every stock sector fund fell on most down days, including the “defensive” ones. Cash‑like funds barely moved at all.
This is a pattern, not a guarantee. A single day is a short window, and past results do not predict how any asset will behave on the next selloff.
The down‑day scorecard: how each fund moved
| Fund | Avg on 1%+ down days | Median | % of days up | On 2%+ down days: avg / % up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20+ year Treasuries (TLT) | +0.25% | +0.29% | 59% | +0.43% / 65% |
| 7–10 year Treasuries (IEF) | +0.11% | +0.13% | 59% | +0.18% / 65% |
| 1–3 year Treasuries (SHY) | +0.02% | +0.01% | 56% | +0.03% / 58% |
| 1–3 month T-bills (BIL) | +0.01% | +0.01% | 53% | +0.01% / 46% |
| Gold (GLD) | −0.05% | −0.10% | 45% | +0.04% / 44% |
| Silver (SLV) | −0.83% | −0.55% | 36% | −1.16% / 34% |
| Utilities (XLU) | −0.98% | −0.77% | 25% | −1.78% / 15% |
| Energy (XLE) | −1.74% | −1.41% | 20% | −3.34% / 9% |
| Consumer staples (XLP) | −0.94% | −0.84% | 16% | −1.81% / 10% |
| Health care (XLV) | −1.29% | −1.11% | 9% | −2.32% / 2% |
| Financials (XLF) | −1.92% | −1.70% | 7% | −3.29% / 1% |
| Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) | −1.83% | −1.50% | 1% | −3.03% / 0% |
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | −2.34% | −2.07% | 1% | −3.59% / 1% |
| Technology (XLK) | −2.52% | −2.23% | 0.4% | −3.85% / 0% |
- 20+ year Treasuries (TLT)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- +0.25%
- Median
- +0.29%
- % of days up
- 59%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- +0.43% / 65%
- 7–10 year Treasuries (IEF)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- +0.11%
- Median
- +0.13%
- % of days up
- 59%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- +0.18% / 65%
- 1–3 year Treasuries (SHY)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- +0.02%
- Median
- +0.01%
- % of days up
- 56%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- +0.03% / 58%
- 1–3 month T-bills (BIL)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- +0.01%
- Median
- +0.01%
- % of days up
- 53%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- +0.01% / 46%
- Gold (GLD)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −0.05%
- Median
- −0.10%
- % of days up
- 45%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- +0.04% / 44%
- Silver (SLV)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −0.83%
- Median
- −0.55%
- % of days up
- 36%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −1.16% / 34%
- Utilities (XLU)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −0.98%
- Median
- −0.77%
- % of days up
- 25%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −1.78% / 15%
- Energy (XLE)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −1.74%
- Median
- −1.41%
- % of days up
- 20%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −3.34% / 9%
- Consumer staples (XLP)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −0.94%
- Median
- −0.84%
- % of days up
- 16%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −1.81% / 10%
- Health care (XLV)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −1.29%
- Median
- −1.11%
- % of days up
- 9%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −2.32% / 2%
- Financials (XLF)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −1.92%
- Median
- −1.70%
- % of days up
- 7%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −3.29% / 1%
- Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −1.83%
- Median
- −1.50%
- % of days up
- 1%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −3.03% / 0%
- Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −2.34%
- Median
- −2.07%
- % of days up
- 1%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −3.59% / 1%
- Technology (XLK)
- Avg on 1%+ down days
- −2.52%
- Median
- −2.23%
- % of days up
- 0.4%
- On 2%+ down days: avg / % up
- −3.85% / 0%
280 days when SPY fell 1% or more; 89 days when it fell 2% or more. Daily moves, May 27, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026. The mean and median point the same way for every fund except gold, so a few extreme days do not drive the pattern.
Two things stand out. On bigger drops, long Treasuries did better (up on 65% of 2%+ days, +0.43% on average), while defensive sectors did worse. And T‑bills were flat in both groups: they protect the money you hold in them, not the rest of the portfolio.
Do bonds go up when stocks fall?
Most of the time, yes, but not when inflation and rising rates are behind the selloff. 2022 is the clear exception. That year had 63 of the 280 down days, and bonds fell with stocks. Excluding 2022, TLT rose on 63% of down days. In 2022 it rose on 48%. Why the link breaks is covered in do bonds still hedge stocks.
| Fund | 2022 (63 days): avg / % up | All years except 2022 (217 days): avg / % up | 2026 so far (20 days): avg / % up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20+ year Treasuries (TLT) | −0.14% / 48% | +0.36% / 63% | −0.21% / 40% |
| 7–10 year Treasuries (IEF) | −0.12% / 40% | +0.18% / 64% | −0.13% / 40% |
| Gold (GLD) | −0.21% / 33% | −0.01% / 49% | −1.33% / 25% |
| Consumer staples (XLP) | −1.00% / 10% | −0.92% / 18% | +0.38% / 60% |
| Utilities (XLU) | −0.98% / 22% | −0.98% / 25% | −0.10% / 60% |
Days when SPY fell 1% or more. The 2026 column runs to Oct 22 and is a small sample, so treat it as a description of this year, not a new rule.
Is gold a safe haven on down days?
Not on a day‑to‑day basis in this window. Gold rose on 45% of 1%+ down days, with an average move of −0.05% and a median of −0.10%. On 2%+ days the average was +0.04%, but the median was still negative (−0.16%) and gold rose on only 44% of them.
2026 has been worse. Gold fell on 75% of this year’s 20 down days, by 1.33% on average. Silver averaged −3.69%. Gold’s case as a hedge rests more on long stretches of inflation or currency stress than on single days; see is gold a good hedge.
Which stock sectors hold up best in a selloff?
Utilities, staples and health care fell the least, but they still fell. Utilities and staples lost about half as much as technology on an average 1%+ down day (−0.98% and −0.94% vs −2.52%). That is a smaller loss, not a gain. More on how these sectors work in defensive stocks explained.
2026 has been different. When the S&P 500 fell this year, the losses were concentrated in technology and the Nasdaq‑100 (XLK −2.46%, QQQ −2.07% on average), while staples (+0.38%) and energy (+0.37%) rose on average. The equal‑weight S&P 500 (RSP) fell only 0.98%. In other words, the index fell because its largest stocks fell; the average stock did much better.
What happened on the latest down day, Oct 22, 2026?
It was a clear 2026‑style day. SPY fell 1.18%, but staples rose 3.31%, utilities 2.07% and long Treasuries 1.87%. The equal‑weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%. Technology fell 3.29%, gold 2.63% and silver 5.59%. All 20 down days of 2026 so far:
| 2026 date | S&P 500 (SPY) | Long Treasuries (TLT) | Gold (GLD) | Staples (XLP) | Utilities (XLU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 | −2.04% | −1.30% | +3.78% | +0.31% | −1.01% |
| Feb 5 | −1.25% | +1.09% | −2.66% | −0.08% | +0.05% |
| Feb 12 | −1.55% | +1.33% | −3.47% | +0.91% | +1.49% |
| Feb 23 | −1.02% | +0.37% | +2.70% | +1.23% | +0.75% |
| Mar 6 | −1.31% | −0.37% | +1.58% | +0.44% | −0.33% |
| Mar 12 | −1.52% | −0.20% | −1.97% | −0.41% | +0.71% |
| Mar 18 | −1.39% | −0.56% | −3.16% | −2.44% | −0.84% |
| Mar 20 | −1.43% | −1.90% | −3.06% | −0.83% | −4.06% |
| Mar 26 | −1.79% | −0.84% | −3.76% | −0.45% | +0.18% |
| Mar 27 | −1.70% | −0.55% | +3.51% | +0.79% | +0.58% |
| May 15 | −1.20% | −1.48% | −2.32% | −0.41% | −2.30% |
| Jun 5 | −2.58% | −0.52% | −3.65% | +1.70% | +0.95% |
| Jun 10 | −1.58% | −0.27% | −4.15% | +1.65% | +0.05% |
| Jun 17 | −1.25% | +0.16% | −2.27% | −2.24% | −1.35% |
| Jun 23 | −1.45% | +0.13% | −1.89% | +1.87% | +0.79% |
| Jul 23 | −1.24% | −0.33% | −2.00% | −1.38% | +0.57% |
| Jul 29 | −1.54% | −1.65% | +0.46% | +0.35% | −1.35% |
| Oct 14 | −1.08% | +0.66% | −1.49% | +2.22% | −0.36% |
| Oct 16 | −1.11% | +0.10% | −0.18% | +1.08% | +1.34% |
| Oct 22 | −1.18% | +1.87% | −2.63% | +3.31% | +2.07% |
- Jan 20
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.04%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −1.30%
- Gold (GLD)
- +3.78%
- Staples (XLP)
- +0.31%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −1.01%
- Feb 5
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.25%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +1.09%
- Gold (GLD)
- −2.66%
- Staples (XLP)
- −0.08%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.05%
- Feb 12
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.55%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +1.33%
- Gold (GLD)
- −3.47%
- Staples (XLP)
- +0.91%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +1.49%
- Feb 23
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.02%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.37%
- Gold (GLD)
- +2.70%
- Staples (XLP)
- +1.23%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.75%
- Mar 6
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.31%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.37%
- Gold (GLD)
- +1.58%
- Staples (XLP)
- +0.44%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −0.33%
- Mar 12
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.52%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.20%
- Gold (GLD)
- −1.97%
- Staples (XLP)
- −0.41%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.71%
- Mar 18
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.39%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.56%
- Gold (GLD)
- −3.16%
- Staples (XLP)
- −2.44%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −0.84%
- Mar 20
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.43%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −1.90%
- Gold (GLD)
- −3.06%
- Staples (XLP)
- −0.83%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −4.06%
- Mar 26
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.79%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.84%
- Gold (GLD)
- −3.76%
- Staples (XLP)
- −0.45%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.18%
- Mar 27
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.70%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.55%
- Gold (GLD)
- +3.51%
- Staples (XLP)
- +0.79%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.58%
- May 15
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.20%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −1.48%
- Gold (GLD)
- −2.32%
- Staples (XLP)
- −0.41%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −2.30%
- Jun 5
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −2.58%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.52%
- Gold (GLD)
- −3.65%
- Staples (XLP)
- +1.70%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.95%
- Jun 10
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.58%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.27%
- Gold (GLD)
- −4.15%
- Staples (XLP)
- +1.65%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.05%
- Jun 17
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.25%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.16%
- Gold (GLD)
- −2.27%
- Staples (XLP)
- −2.24%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −1.35%
- Jun 23
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.45%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.13%
- Gold (GLD)
- −1.89%
- Staples (XLP)
- +1.87%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.79%
- Jul 23
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.24%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −0.33%
- Gold (GLD)
- −2.00%
- Staples (XLP)
- −1.38%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +0.57%
- Jul 29
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.54%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- −1.65%
- Gold (GLD)
- +0.46%
- Staples (XLP)
- +0.35%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −1.35%
- Oct 14
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.08%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.66%
- Gold (GLD)
- −1.49%
- Staples (XLP)
- +2.22%
- Utilities (XLU)
- −0.36%
- Oct 16
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.11%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +0.10%
- Gold (GLD)
- −0.18%
- Staples (XLP)
- +1.08%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +1.34%
- Oct 22
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- −1.18%
- Long Treasuries (TLT)
- +1.87%
- Gold (GLD)
- −2.63%
- Staples (XLP)
- +3.31%
- Utilities (XLU)
- +2.07%
Illustrative: a $500,000 portfolio with $400,000 in SPY and $100,000 in TLT would have moved about −$4,720 and +$1,870 on Oct 22, a net −$2,850 (−0.57%). With the $100,000 in gold instead, the gold leg would have lost about $2,630, for a net −$7,350 (−1.47%). On 2022’s down days, TLT averaged −0.14%, so the Treasury leg added to losses more often than not. One day says little; it only shows how much the choice of “hedge” mattered.
What are the safest investments when stocks fall?
By this scorecard, short‑term Treasuries and T‑bills moved the least: SHY averaged +0.02% and BIL +0.01% on 1%+ down days. They keep their value but do not offset losses elsewhere, as explained in is cash a good hedge. Long Treasuries offset losses more often, but carry real price risk, as 2022 showed.
Every hedge also has a cost. Assets that rise when stocks fall tend to lag in rising markets, so holding them gives up return in good years. And relationships between assets tend to shift in a crisis, a pattern described in why correlations rise in crashes. This is education, not a recommendation to buy or sell any fund.
What to check in your own portfolio
- List what you hold that has actually risen on down days, not what is labelled “defensive”.
- Check your Treasury duration: long bonds cushioned most selloffs but fell with stocks in 2022.
- Don’t count gold or silver as a daily shock absorber; in this window they rose on fewer than half of down days.
- Count cash and T-bills as stability, not as an offset to stock losses.
- Look at how much of your stock exposure sits in the largest tech names, which drove 2026’s down days.
How to follow this with Exent
- Market Intelligence publishes a daily briefing with cited sources and cross-asset signals across stocks, bonds, gold and sectors.
- Exent’s regime model reads four pillars (liquidity, credit stress, the economic cycle and sentiment), classifies the backdrop as Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF, and sends an alert when it changes.
- Portfolio Analysis replays your holdings through 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 and groups holdings that move together into correlation clusters; upload a screenshot or CSV, no brokerage login.
Frequently asked questions
There is no single answer, and this page is not advice. Historically, long-term Treasuries rose on 59% of days the S&P 500 fell 1% or more since 2016, but they fell with stocks in 2022.
Not reliably on a daily basis. Gold rose on 45% of S&P 500 down days since mid-2016, and in 2026 it fell on 75% of them, by 1.33% on average.
Usually. Long Treasuries rose on 63% of down days outside 2022, but only 48% in 2022, when rising rates pushed bonds and stocks down together.
Rarely. Utilities rose on 25% of down days and consumer staples on 16% since mid-2016; they mostly fell less than the market. 2026 has been an exception, with both rising on 60% of down days.
Cash and T-bills hold their value, moving about 0.01% on down days, but they do not offset losses on the stocks you still own.
Know when to hold the index, and when to step aside.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.