Every month since 1985 in which the Dow beat the Nasdaq‑100 by 8 percentage points or more, dated: what both indexes did 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later, with and without the 2000–02 dot‑com bust. Plus where October 2026 stands.
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There was no single pattern: what followed depended almost entirely on whether the gap came during the 2000–02 dot‑com bust. Across the 17 months from February 1985 to September 2026 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average beat the Nasdaq‑100 by 8 percentage points or more, the Nasdaq‑100 did better than the Dow over the following 12 months in only 6. Its median 12‑month price return was −25.7%, against −0.5% for the Dow.
That median is driven by one period. Ten of the 17 months fell between April 2000 and February 2002, and in all ten the Nasdaq‑100 was lower a year later and trailed the Dow. In the other seven, from 1992 to 2022, the Nasdaq‑100 was higher a year later every time, with a median gain of 26.3%, and beat the Dow in six. For comparison, across all months since 1985 the Nasdaq‑100’s median 12‑month return was 17.9% and it beat the Dow in 72% of 12‑month windows.
The figures come from monthly closes of both price indexes in Exent’s price data, from February 1985 through October 30, 2026. October 2026, with a gap of 8.4 points, is the 18th month to cross 8 points; its own outcomes start to arrive at the end of November.
Each row is one calendar month in which the Dow’s price return minus the Nasdaq‑100’s was 8 points or more. The next columns show what the Nasdaq‑100 did over the following 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, measured from that month’s last close, and which index did better over the 12 months. Rows from April 2000 to February 2002 are the dot‑com bust.
| Month | Dow that month | Nasdaq‑100 that month | Gap (points) | Nasdaq‑100 next 1 month | Next 3 months | Next 6 months | Next 12 months | Dow next 12 months | Led over 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1992 | +3.8% | −4.7% | 8.5 | +2.4% | +1.0% | +6.9% | +10.4% | +2.0% | Nasdaq‑100 |
| Feb 1997 | +0.9% | −7.7% | 8.7 | −6.3% | +12.7% | +26.3% | +40.4% | +24.3% | Nasdaq‑100 |
| Feb 1999 | −0.6% | −9.5% | 8.9 | +9.4% | +8.5% | +24.5% | +121.6% | +8.8% | Nasdaq‑100 |
| Apr 1999 | +10.2% | +1.4% | 8.8 | −2.2% | +6.3% | +23.5% | +76.6% | −0.5% | Nasdaq‑100 |
| Apr 2000 | −1.7% | −14.2% | 12.5 | −11.9% | −4.3% | −13.0% | −50.8% | 0.0% | Dow |
| May 2000 | −2.0% | −11.9% | 9.9 | +13.2% | +22.7% | −24.6% | −45.9% | +3.7% | Dow |
| Oct 2000 | +3.0% | −8.1% | 11.1 | −23.6% | −21.0% | −43.5% | −58.4% | −17.3% | Dow |
| Nov 2000 | −5.1% | −23.6% | 18.6 | −6.6% | −23.9% | −28.2% | −36.3% | −5.4% | Dow |
| Dec 2000 | +3.6% | −6.6% | 10.2 | +10.7% | −32.8% | −21.8% | −32.7% | −7.1% | Dow |
| Feb 2001 | −3.6% | −26.4% | 22.8 | −17.6% | −5.7% | −23.0% | −28.8% | −3.7% | Dow |
| Mar 2001 | −5.9% | −17.6% | 11.7 | +17.9% | +16.3% | −25.7% | −7.7% | +5.3% | Dow |
| Jul 2001 | +0.2% | −8.0% | 8.2 | −12.7% | −18.9% | −7.9% | −42.9% | −17.0% | Dow |
| Sep 2001 | −11.1% | −20.5% | 9.4 | +16.8% | +35.0% | +24.3% | −28.7% | −14.2% | Dow |
| Feb 2002 | +1.9% | −12.3% | 14.2 | +6.9% | −11.1% | −30.7% | −25.7% | −21.9% | Dow |
| Sep 2008 | −6.0% | −14.8% | 8.8 | −16.3% | −24.0% | −22.4% | +7.8% | −10.5% | Nasdaq‑100 |
| Apr 2022 | −4.9% | −13.4% | 8.5 | −1.7% | +0.7% | −11.3% | +3.0% | +3.4% | Dow |
| Oct 2022 | +14.0% | +4.0% | 10.0 | +5.5% | +6.1% | +16.1% | +26.3% | +1.0% | Nasdaq‑100 |
| Median, all 17 | −1.7% | +0.7% | −13.0% | −25.7% | −0.5% | Nasdaq‑100 in 6 of 17 | |||
| Median, 7 outside 2000–02 | −1.7% | +6.1% | +16.1% | +26.3% | +2.0% | Nasdaq‑100 in 6 of 7 | |||
| Median, 10 in 2000–02 | +0.2% | −8.4% | −23.8% | −34.5% | −6.3% | Nasdaq‑100 in 0 of 10 | |||
| Oct 2026 | +1.7% | −6.7% | 8.4 | pending | pending | pending | pending | pending | pending |
Outside the dot‑com bust it mostly bounced; inside it, it kept lagging. The table compares the Nasdaq‑100 after these months with every month since 1985.
| Horizon | Nasdaq‑100 median, all 17 | Median, 7 outside 2000–02 | Median, 10 in 2000–02 | Median, all months | Nasdaq‑100 beat the Dow: all 17 | Outside 2000–02 | All months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.7% | −1.7% | +0.2% | +1.8% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 7 | 270 of 500 (54%) |
| 3 months | +0.7% | +6.1% | −8.4% | +4.4% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 7 | 295 of 498 (59%) |
| 6 months | −13.0% | +16.1% | −23.8% | +9.0% | 7 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 311 of 495 (63%) |
| 12 months | −25.7% | +26.3% | −34.5% | +17.9% | 6 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 351 of 489 (72%) |
The split is stark, but the samples are tiny. Seven cases outside 2000–02 cannot establish a pattern, and two of them, February and April 1999, were followed by the last leg of the dot‑com bubble: the Nasdaq‑100 rose 121.6% and 76.6% over the next year before the crash that produced the 2000–02 cluster. The one case outside that period where the Dow still led over 12 months was April 2022, and only by 0.4 points (+3.4% vs +3.0%).
Counting a gap only if none occurred in the prior 12 months leaves 7 separate starts (Apr 1992, Feb 1997, Feb 1999, Apr 2000, Jul 2001, Sep 2008, Apr 2022). After those, the Nasdaq‑100’s median 12‑month return was 7.8%, it rose in 5 of 7 and beat the Dow in 4 of 7.
The overall answer flips; the split by era holds. With a 5‑point threshold there are 40 earlier months, and the Nasdaq‑100 beat the Dow over the next 12 months in 24 of the 39 with a full year of data (median Nasdaq‑100 return 9.8%), because more of those months fall outside 2000–02. Excluding 2000–02, it beat the Dow in 20 of 23 (median 21.8%). July 2026, a 6.9‑point month, is in that set and still pending at 6 and 12 months.
With a 10‑point threshold, all 7 months fall inside the dot‑com bust, and the Nasdaq‑100 was lower 12 months later in all 7 (median −32.7%). The very largest gaps happened only in that one bear market, so they say more about 2000–02 than about gaps in general. How that period unfolded for individual stocks is covered in what happened to dot‑com bubble stocks, and how deep Nasdaq‑100 drawdowns went in how much QQQ can fall in a crash.
Because the two indexes hold different companies and weight them differently. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 30 large US companies across most sectors, weighted by share price. The Nasdaq‑100 is the 100 largest non‑financial companies listed on Nasdaq, weighted by market value, which makes it far more concentrated in large technology and growth stocks.
So when large technology stocks fall while banks, industrials, health care or consumer staples hold up, the Dow can rise while the Nasdaq‑100 falls. Investors call this a rotation out of tech, though a month’s gap shows only that the two groups moved differently, not why or for how long. A gap this size is rare: the typical month since 1985 had a gap of 2.4 points in either direction, and the Dow did better in 231 of 501 months (46%). The broader cycle between these styles is covered in sector rotation and the growth vs value cycle.
In October 2026 the Dow rose 1.7%, from 50,906.05 on Sep 30 to 51,770.31 on Oct 30, while the Nasdaq‑100 fell 6.7%, from 30,408.50 to 28,384.85. The gap of 8.4 points ranks 17th of 501 months since February 1985; the last larger gap was October 2022.
The Nasdaq‑100 set its record close of 31,224.69 on Oct 6, 2026 and ended the month 9.1% below it. The Dow’s record close was 54,349.12 on Aug 5, 2026; on Oct 30 it was 4.7% below. For 2026 through Oct 30, the Nasdaq‑100 was up 12.4% and the Dow 7.7%. The months before were mixed: in July the Dow beat the Nasdaq‑100 by 6.9 points, and in September the Nasdaq‑100 led by 7.5.
These are dated readings. The history above describes what followed past gaps; it is history, not a signal, and it does not say what November 2026 or the next year will bring. Concentration in the largest stocks is covered in the Magnificent 7 vs the other 493.
One month’s gap sat before very different years, as the table shows. Context comes from more than one number.
The Dow holds 30 large companies across most sectors, weighted by share price, while the Nasdaq-100 holds the 100 largest non-financial Nasdaq-listed companies, weighted by market value and heavy in technology. When tech stocks fall and other sectors hold up, the two can move in opposite directions.
It depended on the era. After 17 months since 1985 when the Dow led by 8 points or more, the Nasdaq-100 was higher 12 months later in all 7 cases outside 2000–02 and lower in all 10 cases during the 2000–02 bust.
In October 2026 the Dow rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.7%, a gap of 8.4 percentage points. Only 16 of 501 months since February 1985 had a larger gap in the Dow’s favour.
It describes money moving from technology and growth stocks into other sectors, such as industrials, financials or defensive stocks. It shows up as tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq-100 lagging broader or more value-oriented ones like the Dow.
February 2001, when the Dow fell 3.6% and the Nasdaq-100 fell 26.4%, a gap of 22.8 points. The next largest was November 2000, at 18.6 points.
This history does not establish one. Seventeen cases split into two opposite outcomes depending on the period, and ten came from a single bear market, so the sample is too small and too clustered to act as a signal.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.