Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Robin M. Farley is one of the top‑ranked analysts in Exent’s 7‑year backtest. What Robin covers, how Robin’s ratings lean, how fast price targets were reached and the ratings from before the last 30 days; the full record and the newest calls are members‑only.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; live calls are in Gems.
Robin M. Farley of UBS ranks among the top 50 consumer discretionary analysts in Exent’s ranking, with a focus on consumer discretionary. The top of the ranking is what Exent Gems follows, so Robin’s exact rank, hit rate and live calls are for members.
| Metric | Robin M. Farley | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Exent rank | — | |
| Price‑target hit rate | 52.4% | |
| Calls up after 12 months | 64.0% | |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +13.4% | |
| Median days to hit target | 91 days | |
| Stocks covered | 21 | — |
| Time to reach the target | Robin M. Farley |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 32.8% |
| 30–90 days | 30.6% |
| 90–180 days | 19.4% |
| Over 180 days | 17.2% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
HOG · DKNG · NCLH · RCL · CCL · MGM · TSX-DOO · PII
In the past year Robin’s ratings were 43% Buy, 57% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | DKNG | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $48.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | PII | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $61.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | LVS | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $56.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | WYNN | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $138.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | MGM | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $46.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | HST | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $23.00 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | HOG | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $28.00 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | CHH | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $120.00 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | VIK | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $121.00 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | VIK | Rated: Buy | Buy | $121.00 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | MAR | Rated: Hold | Hold | $395.00 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | LVS | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $56.00 |
Ratings from the last 30 days are members‑only in Exent Gems, with the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree; older ratings are shown in full.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 20, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring, Robin M. Farley ranks among the top 50 consumer discretionary analysts in Exent’s ranking, based on a 7-year backtest of price-target hit rate, returns after calls and number of ratings. The exact rank, hit rate and live calls are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Robin M. Farley’s price-target hit rate is part of the members-only record in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). For comparison, the average analyst’s price targets were reached 52.4% of the time.
Robin M. Farley (UBS) covers 21 stocks, mostly in consumer discretionary. The most frequently rated are HOG, DKNG, NCLH, RCL, CCL.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.