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Does Small caps (Russell 2000) Beat the S&P 500? A 10-Year Backtest

Small caps (Russell 2000) against the S&P 500 from Jul 2016 to Sep 2026: returns, volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, drawdowns, the COVID crash and 2022, year by year.

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Key takeaways

  • Small caps (Russell 2000): +10.4% a year vs +15.2% for the S&P 500 (Jul 2016–Sep 2026, backtest).
  • Sharpe ratio 0.48 vs 0.88; max drawdown −32.3% vs −23.9%.
  • It beat the S&P 500 in 1 of 9 calendar years.
  • It lagged the S&P 500 on both raw and risk-adjusted return over this period.

Small caps (Russell 2000) vs the S&P 500: the results

From Jul 2016 to Sep 2026, small caps (russell 2000) returned +10.4% a year against +15.2% for the S&P 500, with volatility of 20.7% against 15.2%. It lagged the S&P 500 on both raw and risk-adjusted return over this period.

MetricSmall caps (Russell 2000)S&P 500
Annual return (CAGR)+10.4%+15.2%
Volatility20.7%15.2%
Sharpe ratio0.480.88
Sortino ratio0.731.39
Max drawdown (month-end)−32.3%−23.9%
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−28.4%−19.4%
2022−20.5%−18.2%
Calendar years beating the S&P 5001 of 9—
Correlation with the S&P 5000.861.00

Year by year

YearSmall caps (Russell 2000)S&P 500Difference
2026 (YTD)+13.1%+12.1%+1.0%
2025+12.7%+17.7%−5.0%
2024+11.4%+24.9%−13.5%
2023+16.8%+26.2%−9.4%
2022−20.5%−18.2%−2.3%
2021+14.5%+28.7%−14.2%
2020+20.0%+18.3%+1.7%
2019+25.4%+31.2%−5.8%
2018−11.1%−4.6%−6.5%
2017+14.6%+21.7%−7.1%

Growth of $10,000

End ofSmall caps (Russell 2000)
2016$11,875
2017$13,607
2018$12,094
2019$15,165
2020$18,201
2021$20,848
2022$16,576
2023$19,365
2024$21,569
2025$24,300
Sep 2026$27,481

How the backtest is built

Holdings: IWM. A factor ETF that tilts toward one characteristic of stocks that academic research links to long-run returns.

Ten years is one market cycle dominated by US large‑cap growth, so results for value, small caps and international‑style tilts can look very different over other periods. Compare every strategy side by side on the strategies page, or read why beating the S&P 500 is so hard.

Backtested (hypothetical) results calculated by Exent from historical ETF prices with dividends reinvested, monthly rebalancing unless stated, and no trading costs, taxes or fees beyond the funds’ own expense ratios. Backtests are not actual trading and have hindsight bias. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.

Measure your own portfolio the same way

  1. Upload a screenshot of your holdings; no brokerage login.
  2. Exent computes your return, volatility, Sharpe, Sortino and drawdowns and compares them with a risk‑matched benchmark, not just the S&P 500.
  3. The efficient frontier shows whether a different mix of what you already own took less risk for the same return.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

In Exent's backtest from Jul 2016 to Sep 2026, small caps (russell 2000) returned +10.4% a year versus +15.2% for the S&P 500, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.48 versus 0.88. It lagged the S&P 500 on both raw and risk-adjusted return over this period. Results over other periods can differ.

It returned −20.5% in 2022, when the S&P 500 returned −18.2%.

How does your own portfolio compare?

Exent measures your portfolio against a risk-matched benchmark, shows its Sharpe ratio, drawdowns and crash exposure, and where it sits on the efficient frontier.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.