StrategiesInsight

Does Nasdaq-100 Beat the S&P 500? A 10-Year Backtest

Nasdaq-100 against the S&P 500 from Jul 2016 to Sep 2026: returns, volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, drawdowns, the COVID crash and 2022, year by year.

David, Senior AnalystUpdated Oct 12, 20264 min readHow we research

Key takeaways

Nasdaq-100: +21.5% a year vs +15.2% for the S&P 500 (Jul 2016–Sep 2026, backtest).
Sharpe ratio 1.03 vs 0.88; max drawdown −32.6% vs −23.9%.
It beat the S&P 500 in 7 of 9 calendar years.
It beat the S&P 500 on both raw and risk-adjusted return over this period.

In this article

Nasdaq-100 vs the S&P 500: the results
Year by year
Growth of $10,000
How the backtest is built

Nasdaq-100 vs the S&P 500: the results

From Jul 2016 to Sep 2026, nasdaq-100 returned +21.5% a year against +15.2% for the S&P 500, with volatility of 18.8% against 15.2%. It beat the S&P 500 on both raw and risk-adjusted return over this period.

Metric	Nasdaq-100	S&P 500
Annual return (CAGR)	+21.5%	+15.2%
Volatility	18.8%	15.2%
Sharpe ratio	1.03	0.88
Sortino ratio	1.75	1.39
Max drawdown (month-end)	−32.6%	−23.9%
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)	−12.9%	−19.4%
2022	−32.6%	−18.2%
Calendar years beating the S&P 500	7 of 9	—
Correlation with the S&P 500	0.91	1.00

Year by year

Year	Nasdaq-100	S&P 500	Difference
2026 (YTD)	+20.6%	+12.1%	+8.5%
2025	+20.8%	+17.7%	+3.1%
2024	+25.6%	+24.9%	+0.7%
2023	+54.9%	+26.2%	+28.7%
2022	−32.6%	−18.2%	−14.4%
2021	+27.4%	+28.7%	−1.3%
2020	+48.6%	+18.3%	+30.3%
2019	+39.0%	+31.2%	+7.8%
2018	−0.1%	−4.6%	+4.5%
2017	+32.7%	+21.7%	+11.0%

Growth of $10,000

End of	Nasdaq-100
2016	$11,077
2017	$14,695
2018	$14,675
2019	$20,392
2020	$30,306
2021	$38,616
2022	$26,035
2023	$40,317
2024	$50,630
2025	$61,146
Sep 2026	$73,726

How the backtest is built

Holdings: QQQ. A market-cap-weighted index fund: the benchmark most investors are measured against.

Ten years is one market cycle dominated by US large‑cap growth, so results for value, small caps and international‑style tilts can look very different over other periods. Compare every strategy side by side on the strategies page, or read why beating the S&P 500 is so hard.

Backtested (hypothetical) results calculated by Exent from historical ETF prices with dividends reinvested, monthly rebalancing unless stated, and no trading costs, taxes or fees beyond the funds’ own expense ratios. Backtests are not actual trading and have hindsight bias. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.

Measure your own portfolio the same way

Upload a screenshot of your holdings; no brokerage login.
Exent computes your return, volatility, Sharpe, Sortino and drawdowns and compares them with a risk‑matched benchmark, not just the S&P 500.
The efficient frontier shows whether a different mix of what you already own took less risk for the same return.

Check my portfolio

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

In Exent's backtest from Jul 2016 to Sep 2026, nasdaq-100 returned +21.5% a year versus +15.2% for the S&P 500, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 versus 0.88. It beat the S&P 500 on both raw and risk-adjusted return over this period. Results over other periods can differ.

It returned −32.6% in 2022, when the S&P 500 returned −18.2%.

: .-++++=: .-=+**+-. .:=+*#*=:..::-+##*+-:. .-+**+++=:. .:::-=+**********++===++***+++*###*+=--:. .:==+*#*+-:..::-+##*+-:. :=**++=: .-=+**+-. .:=+*#*-...: . -++*+=: .:=+**+-. .:-+*#*=:..::=+##*=-:...:=***++=:. .:-=+*###*++==--:::::::...:---==+*##**++=-. .:-=+###*=-:...-+**++=: :=++*+-. :-=***=:..:-=*##+-..: :=+*++-. :=++*+=. :-=*#*+-..::=+##*=-:...-+*#*+=-. :-=+*###*+=--:. .... .::..:-=+++****=-:..::-=*#*+=-: .-=++++=. .-=+**+-...:=+##*=:.::-+##*=::. .-++++=: .-=+**=: .-=+*#+-...:-+##*=-::.:-+##*+=:. .-=++***+=-:::.. ..:-----:::::::. .:-=+*###*=-:.. :=+**++-. .-=+**+-. .:-+*##+:..:-=*##+-:..:=*#*+-:. :=+*++-. :=+**+-. .:=+*#*-...:-+*##+-:.::-+##*=-:. :=++**++-:...::::-==+++++****++===-:....:::-+*#*+==:. .-=+**+-. .:-=*##+-:.::-+##*=::.:-+##*=-:..-+#*+=:. .-++++=: .-++**=: :-=***=:..:-=*##+-:.::-+##*=-:...:=***++-: .:-==*###**+**####*******+=-::...:-+**++=-. :-=+##*-:..:-+###+-:..:=*#*+-:..:=*#*=-: :=**+=-. :=++++-. :=+**+-. .-=+**+-...-=+##*-:.::-+##*=-:...-+***+=-. .:-=+*####*+==========++*###*+=-:. .-=+***+-...:-=*##+-::.:-*##+=-:..-+#*+=-. .-+**+=: .-++++=: :=+*+=: .-=+**=: :-+***=: .:-+*#*=:..:-+###+-::.:-+##*=-:. .-=++****+---::. .::::--+****++=-. .:-+*##+-::.:-+##*=-:..:=*#*+-: .=**++-. :=+*++-. :=+**+: -++*+=. :=+**+-. .-=+**+-..:-=*##+-..:-=*##+-::.:-+##*=-:. :=+++*++-:...:.. ...:.. .:-=+**#*=:..::-+##*+-:...-+#*+=-. -+**+=: .-++*+=: .-++*+=. :=+**+- =+**+- .-=+**=: :-=*#*=:..:-+*#*=:.::-+##*=::.:-+##*=-:. .-+**++=-: .::---====---:. .::-=*##*=-:...-+##+=-: :=+*++-. .=++++-. :=+**+-. .-=+**+: .:-=*#*= =+**=: :-=***=. .:=+*#+-..:-=*##+-..:-=*##+-:.::=*##+-:...-+**++=:. .:-==+*###*+++++=-:..:::=*##*=-:. .-+**+=: -=+*+=: .-=+**=: :-=*#*=. .:=+*#+-..:-=*##+ =+**=. .:=+**+-. .-=*##+:..:-+*#*=:.::-+##*-::::=*##+=::..-+##*=-: :-=++*###**+++*###*=-::. .-+**+=-. :=++*+=. :-+**+-. .:=+*#+-..:-=*##+:..:-+##*=:.::=*##+ +**+-. .-=+**+:..:-+*#*=:..:=+##+-:.:-=*##+-:.:-+##*=-:..:+*#*=-:. .:=++***+=------=+*##*+=-. .-++*+=: .-=+**+: .-=*#*=:..:-+*#*=:.::=*##+-:.:-+##*=::.:-*##+ +**+-. :-=*#*=:..:-+##*-..:-=*##+-:.:-+##*=::.:-*##+-:..:=*#*+-:. .-+**++=-:. ..:...:-=+*++=-. :-+***=. .:-+*#*-...:=+##+-..:-=*#*=::::-+##+-::.:=*#*=-:..-+##+ +*#+:..:-+*#*=:..:=*##+-:.:-+##*=::::-*##+-:..:=*#*=-:..:+##+=-. .:+**++-: .::::. :-++**+:. .-=+##+:..:-=*#*=:..:-+##*-::::=*##+-:.:-+##*=::.:=*#*+-:..:+##+ *##+:..:-+##*-:.::=*##+-:::-+##*=::.:=*##+-:..-+##*=-...-*#*+-:. .=***+-: :-====-: .:-+*#*=:..:-+##*-:.::=*##+-:.:-+##*=::.:=*##+-:..:+##+=-...-*#*+-:. :+**+ *##=:..:-+##*-:.::=*##=-:.:-+##+-:..:=*#*=-:..-+##+=:. :=*#*=-: :+**+=:. .-=++**#*+-..:-=*##+-:.:-+##*=::.:=*##+-:..:+##*=-:..-*#*+-:..:+**+=-. .-***+-: :=**+ *##=::::-+##+-::::=##*=-:.:-*##+-:..:=##*=-:..-+#*+-:. :=**+=-. .-+**+=: :=+*+++##*=::::=*##+-:.::+##*=-:.:-*##+-:..:+##*=-...-*#*+-: :=**+=-. .-+*++-. :=+*+ ##*=::.:-*##+-:..:=##*=-:..-*#*+-:..:=*#+=-. .-+**+-: :=**+=-. .-+*++=. :=++++*##*=::.:=*##+-:..:+##*=-:..-*#*+-:..:+**+=-. .-***+-: :=**+=: .-+*++-. :=+++ ##*=-:..-*##+-:..:=*#*=-...-+#*+-:. :=**+=-. .-+**+=: .=+*+=-. -=+*+=: .-=+*###*=-:..:=*#*=-:..-+##+=:...=*#*=-: :+**+=:. .-+*++-. :=**+=: .-++++-. :=+** ##*=-:..-+#*+-:. :=**+=-. .-+**+=: .=**+=-. :++++=: .-++*+-. :=+**+-. .:--=++=-:::.:-*##+=:...-*#*+-:. :=**+=-. -+**+=: .=+*+=-. :=+++=: .-++*+-. .-=+** *#*=-: .-+**+=:. .=**+=-. :+**+=: .-++++-. :=+**+: .-=+**=: :-=+##+-:...........::-+##*=-:..:=*#*=-. :+**+=:. .-+*++-. :=+*+=- .-++*+=. :=+**+- .-=+** ***=-. :+**+=: .-+*++-. :=+++=: .-=+*+=. :-+**+-. .:=+*#*-:..:-+*##*=--:. .:--=*##*=-:...-*#*+=:. .-+**+-: .=+*+=-. :=+*+=: .-++*+-. :=+**+: :-=*** +*++-. :=+*+=: .-++*+=. :=+**+-. .:=+**+: :-=*#*+:..:-=*##+-::.:-=*##*+==------==+*##*=-:...-+##+=-. :+**+=-. :++*+=: .-++*+=. :=+**+-. .-=+**=: .:-+*#* ++++=: :=++*+-. .:=+**=: .-=***=. .:-+*#*-...:=+##*=::::-+##*+-:.. .-++++**##***++**#*+-::..:-+##*=-:. .=***+=: .-+*++-. :=++*+-. .-=+**+: :-=*#*=. .:=+##+ =+*+=: .-++**=. .:=+**+-. .-=+##+-..:-=*##+-:.:-=*##+-:...-+##*+=:. .:-==+*###**++++=-:..:::=*##*=-:. .-+**+=:. :=+*+=: .-=+**=: .-=***=. .:=+*#+-..:-=*##+ =+**+-. .-=+**=:..:-+*#*=:..:-+##*=:.::-+##*=::..-+##*=-:. .-++*+++-: .::::--====--:. .::-+*##*=-:. .-+**+=-. :=+*++-. :=++*+-. .:=+**+-. .-=+##+:..:-+*#*= -+*#*=...:=+##+-..:-=*##+-:.:-=###+-:..:=*#*+-:. .-+**+=-. .:=++*#*+-:::.. .::.. .:--=+###*=-:...-+**+=-: .-+*++=: .-=+**=: .-=+**=: .:-+*#*=:..:=+##*- -=*##=:..:-+##*=::::-+##*=::..-*##+=-. .-+**+=-. .-++**+-. .:-=*###*+=--:.....:::..:--=++*##*+-::..:-+##*=-: .-+**+=-. :=+**+-. .:=+*#+-...-=+##+-..:-=*##+- :=*##+-::::=*##+-:..:=*#*=-:. :=***+-: .-++++=-. :-=+*#*=:..:::-=****++*+++======++********=-:..::-=*##*=-:. .-+**++-. .-++**=: :-=***=:..:-=*#*=:..:-+##*=: :-+##*=-:..-+##+=-. .-+**+=:. :++*++-. :-++**+-. .:-=*##*+--:. .:==++*####**++*####**++==:. .:--+###*=-:. .-+**++-: .-=+**+: .-=+*#+-...-=+##+-..:-=*##+-: .:=*#*=-:. :=**+=-: :=+*++-. .-=+**+:. .:-+*##+-:::::=+##*+=-:. .:--==+**++++****+==--: :--=*###+=-:...-+**++-: .-=+**+-. :-+***=:..:-+*#*=:..:-+##*=:: .-+**+=:. .-+**+=: .-=+**+-. .:-+*#*+:..::-+###+=-:. .:=+***++=-:........::-----::::::.. :-==+*##*=-::..:=*#*+=-: .:=++++-. :-=+**+:..:-=*##+-..:-=*##+-:: :=+*++-. :=++*+=. :-=***+-..::=+##*=-::.:-+*#*+=-: :-=+*###*+=--:. ..:. .:::::-=+++****=-:..::-=*##+=-:. .-=+*++=: .-=+**+-. .:=+##*=:.::-+##*=::. .-=+**=: .-=+**+-...:-+##*=-::::=*##*=-:. .:=+*+++=:. .::-=+*##**++==--::::::...::---=+**#**+++=:. ..:-=+###+=-:. .-+**++=: .-=+**+-. .:-+*#*=:..:-=*##+-::: . :-+***=:..:-=*##+-:.::=*##*=-:..:-+**+=-: :-=+*#*+=:::...:-=++++*###**++=+++++++++**###*+==-:. .:-=+*##*+-::...-+**++-: .:=+**+=. :-=*##+-..::=*##*-::.:

How does your own portfolio compare?

Exent measures your portfolio against a risk-matched benchmark, shows its Sharpe ratio, drawdowns and crash exposure, and where it sits on the efficient frontier.

Check my portfolioLimited offer$1.95 for unlimited checks· unlimited checks

Guide

How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says

The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, what historically moved the odds, and how to measure your own results so you know where you stand.

Oct 12, 2026 · 13 min read

Guide

Portfolio Optimization: How to Get More Return for Your Risk

Maximum return means maximum risk. Optimization is about the best return for the risk you choose. This guide explains the efficient frontier, Sharpe and Sortino, correlations, exposure, crash liability and position sizing, with real data on what optimizers did and did not achieve.

Oct 12, 2026 · 11 min read

Insight

Why 95% of Investors Can’t Beat the S&P 500 (and What Actually Helps)

Charlie Munger put the odds at roughly 95% against. The data on professionals and individuals points the same way. The reasons are structural, and most of them can be fixed.

Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.