Why the S&P 500 Is Probably the Wrong Benchmark for Your Portfolio
Beating the index can mean you took more risk. Lagging it can mean your portfolio did its job. The fair test is a benchmark built from the same kinds of assets you own.
Every S&P 500 addition and removal since 2013 with price history, measured against the index: how stocks did in the month before the change, one, three and 12 months after, by year, and what happened to the stocks that were dropped.
Mostly before they join, not after. Across 277 additions since 2013, the average stock beat the S&P 500 by 4.9 percentage points in the month before the change took effect, then lagged it by 3.7 percentage points over the following 12 months (median −6.4 pts). All figures are returns minus the S&P 500’s over the same window, dividends included, so they show what the addition added on top of the market. Data as of Oct 20, 2026.
| Window | Average vs S&P 500 | Median vs S&P 500 | Share that beat the index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month before the change | +4.9 pts | +2.9 pts | 62% |
| 1 month after | −0.7 pts | −0.5 pts | 48% |
| 3 months after | +0.7 pts | −1.4 pts | 45% |
| 12 months after | −3.7 pts | −6.4 pts | 40% |
For the research behind the old “index effect” and why it faded, see the S&P 500 inclusion effect.
In the month before the change, the average addition beat the index by 4.9 percentage points, and 62% of them outperformed. Two things drive that run. Companies are added because their market value has grown, so many arrive after a strong stretch. And the change is public in advance: S&P Dow Jones Indices usually announces it a few days to about a week before the effective date, traders buy ahead of the index funds, and the funds buy at the close before the change. By the time an index fund owns the stock, most of the move is in the price.
Over the following year, 40% of additions beat the S&P 500, and the median addition lagged it by 6.4 percentage points. Additions beat the index on average over 12 months in 5 of the 13 years with at least five additions and a full year of data. The best year was 2024 (+12.9 pts), the worst 2021 (−23.0 pts). Years with few additions swing on one or two stocks.
| Year added | Additions | Month before | 12 months after (average) | Beat the index over 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16 | +13.9 pts | Not yet | — |
| 2025 | 19 | +13.1 pts | −16.3 pts | 33% |
| 2024 | 17 | +8.7 pts | +12.9 pts | 41% |
| 2023 | 15 | +6.9 pts | −16.5 pts | 40% |
| 2022 | 16 | +3.6 pts | +7.3 pts | 44% |
| 2021 | 19 | +6.0 pts | −23.0 pts | 21% |
| 2020 | 16 | +6.0 pts | +8.8 pts | 63% |
| 2019 | 20 | 0.0 pts | +3.0 pts | 42% |
| 2018 | 24 | +3.0 pts | −9.7 pts | 33% |
| 2017 | 26 | +1.1 pts | −0.5 pts | 44% |
| 2016 | 30 | +1.9 pts | −6.9 pts | 41% |
| 2015 | 25 | +4.4 pts | −4.5 pts | 30% |
| 2014 | 16 | +3.0 pts | +1.1 pts | 57% |
| 2013 | 18 | +4.0 pts | −2.1 pts | 35% |
Most kept lagging: the median removed stock lagged the S&P 500 by 7.2 percentage points over the 12 months after removal, and 40% beat it. Stocks are usually removed because their market value has fallen behind; companies removed because they were acquired stop trading and drop out of these numbers, leaving 245 removals since 2013.
| Window | Average vs S&P 500 | Median vs S&P 500 | Share that beat the index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month before the change | −2.9 pts | −0.2 pts | 48% |
| 1 month after | +0.5 pts | −0.8 pts | 46% |
| 3 months after | +1.7 pts | −2.8 pts | 40% |
| 12 months after | −0.6 pts | −7.2 pts | 40% |
The latest additions in the data, newest first, against the S&P 500. “Not yet” means the window has not closed.
| Stock | Joined | Month before | 1 month after | 3 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO | Oct 6, 2026 | +24.7 pts | Not yet | Not yet |
| P | Sep 21, 2026 | −6.3 pts | Not yet | Not yet |
| BE | Sep 21, 2026 | +29.3 pts | Not yet | Not yet |
| ILMN | Sep 21, 2026 | +17.6 pts | Not yet | Not yet |
| RDDT | Aug 18, 2026 | −13.2 pts | −5.8 pts | Not yet |
| FERG | Aug 5, 2026 | +8.9 pts | −10.1 pts | Not yet |
| HONA | Jun 29, 2026 | — | −7.2 pts | −36.4 pts |
| MRVL | Jun 22, 2026 | +74.2 pts | −32.1 pts | −21.0 pts |
| FLEX | Jun 22, 2026 | +14.8 pts | −14.1 pts | −28.2 pts |
| FDXF | Jun 1, 2026 | — | −1.7 pts | −18.3 pts |
| VEEV | May 7, 2026 | −14.3 pts | −0.8 pts | +25.1 pts |
| CASY | Apr 9, 2026 | +14.2 pts | +6.4 pts | −3.0 pts |
Mostly before they join, not after. Across 277 additions since 2013, the average stock beat the S&P 500 by 4.9 percentage points in the month before joining; over the 12 months after, the average lagged it by 3.7 percentage points and the median lagged it by 6.4 percentage points. Exent market data as of Oct 20, 2026; past results do not predict future ones.
Most kept lagging: the median removed stock lagged the S&P 500 by 7.2 percentage points over the next 12 months and only 40% beat it. Based on 245 removals since 2013 with price data; acquired companies drop out.
Mostly in the weeks before the change takes effect: S&P Dow Jones Indices usually announces additions a few days to about a week ahead, traders buy in anticipation, and index funds buy at the close before the effective date. In the month before, added stocks beat the index by 4.9 percentage points on average.
This page is data, not a recommendation. Historically the average gain came before the change took effect, and only 40% of additions beat the index over the following 12 months. Joining the index reflects past growth in market value; it says little about future returns.
An index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices chooses additions from US companies that meet its rules on market value, trading volume, the share of stock available to trade and positive recent earnings. Changes usually happen at quarterly rebalances or when a member is acquired.
Stocks Radar ranks thousands of Wall Street analysts by their past accuracy and shows the stocks where the top‑rated ones agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.