Percentage of S&P 500 Stocks Above the 200‑Day Moving Average
How many S&P 500 stocks trade above their own 200-day moving average, as of the Oct 27, 2026 close, by sector and month by month, with every yearly low and high since 2017.
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Is the Stock Market Rally Too Narrow?
When a few giant stocks carry the index, the S&P 500 can look healthier than the average stock. Here is how to measure breadth, what the data shows in 2026, and what narrow markets have meant before.
Key takeaways
- Yes, by most breadth measures. In the year to Sep 30, 2026, only 40.8% of the 476 largest US stocks beat the S&P 500, and the median stock returned 7.8% vs 15.7% for the index (Exent’s data).
- The equal-weight S&P 500 has lagged the cap-weighted index every year since 2023: by 12.5 points in 2023, 12.1 in 2024, 6.5 in 2025 and 3.0 so far in 2026.
- The leaders have changed. In 2026 the Magnificent 7 as a group roughly matched the index, while chip stocks such as Micron and AMD were among the biggest gainers.
- Narrow markets are not a timing signal on their own. They mean index holders carry more concentration risk than they may think.
Market risk reading, cross‑asset context and an events calendar: see Exent →
What does a narrow rally mean?
A narrow rally is one where a small number of stocks produce most of the index gain. The S&P 500 index is weighted by market value, so its largest members move it far more than the rest. When those few rise sharply, the index can climb while most stocks go nowhere.
The opposite is a broad rally, where most stocks and sectors take part. Investors call this participation market breadth.
How do you measure market breadth?
Four measures are common. Each answers a slightly different question.
| Measure | What it asks | Narrow-market reading |
|---|---|---|
| Share of stocks beating the index | How many members outperform? | Well below half |
| Equal weight vs cap weight | Is the average stock keeping up? | Equal weight lags |
| Top-10 weight in the index | How much do the biggest names matter? | High and rising |
| Stocks above their 200-day average | How many are in an uptrend? | Fewer than the index trend implies |
The equal‑weight comparison is the easiest to check yourself. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) gives each member the same weight, so it tracks the average stock. More in equal weight vs cap weight.
How narrow is the market in 2026?
Narrow over longer windows, and slightly less so this year. Exent compared the largest 500 US‑listed stocks with the S&P 500 (SPY), using total returns to Sep 30, 2026:
| Period to Sep 30, 2026 | Stocks that beat SPY | Share | Median stock | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 194 of 476 | 40.8% | +7.8% | +15.7% |
| 3 years | 174 of 476 | 36.6% | +56.0% | +85.0% |
| 5 years | 183 of 465 | 39.4% | +62.9% | +90.0% |
| 10 years | 154 of 422 | 36.5% | +241.2% | +312.9% |
- 1 year
- Stocks that beat SPY
- 194 of 476
- Share
- 40.8%
- Median stock
- +7.8%
- SPY
- +15.7%
- 3 years
- Stocks that beat SPY
- 174 of 476
- Share
- 36.6%
- Median stock
- +56.0%
- SPY
- +85.0%
- 5 years
- Stocks that beat SPY
- 183 of 465
- Share
- 39.4%
- Median stock
- +62.9%
- SPY
- +90.0%
- 10 years
- Stocks that beat SPY
- 154 of 422
- Share
- 36.5%
- Median stock
- +241.2%
- SPY
- +312.9%
The list uses today’s largest companies, so it has survivorship bias: firms that shrank or disappeared are missing. Even so, in every window only about two in five large stocks or fewer beat the index. The study is explained in how many stocks beat the S&P 500.
| Calendar year | S&P 500 (SPY) | Equal weight (RSP) | Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +26.2% | +13.7% | +54.9% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +12.8% | +25.6% |
| 2025 | +17.7% | +11.2% | +20.8% |
| 2026 to Sep 30 | +12.1% | +9.1% | +20.6% |
Which stocks are driving the rally?
It is no longer only the Magnificent 7. In Exent’s data for 2026 to Sep 30, the equal‑weighted Magnificent 7 returned 10.5%, a little below the S&P 500’s 12.1%. Apple (+22.7%) and NVIDIA (+22.5%) led the group, and Tesla fell 21.1%.
Some of the largest gains in market value came from semiconductor and hardware stocks outside the group. Micron rose 273.3% and AMD 185.7% over the same period. That is still narrow leadership, just a different set of names. The side‑by‑side numbers are in Magnificent 7 vs the other 493.
How concentrated is the S&P 500?
More than at any time in about 60 years. S&P Dow Jones Indices research, In the Shadows of Giants, found that by mid‑2025 the 10 largest companies made up almost 40% of the S&P 500, a level not seen since the mid‑1960s.
High concentration is what turns a narrow rally into a portfolio issue. An investor who owns an S&P 500 fund plus a few big tech names may hold far more of the same stocks than the fund count suggests. See S&P 500 concentration.
Do narrow rallies end badly?
Not reliably. Narrow leadership has lasted for years, and the S&P DJI research describes the link between concentration and later returns as nuanced. A narrow market can broaden out as laggards catch up, or the leaders can fall and take the index with them.
What history does show is that narrow markets are more fragile to bad news about the leaders. In 2022, the equal‑weighted Magnificent 7 fell 45.1% in the backtest, while the equal‑weight S&P 500 fell 11.6% and SPY 18.2%. Leadership cuts both ways.
What do investors do about a narrow market?
Narrow breadth is a reason to check exposure, not a forecast. Common steps, none of them a recommendation for any one person:
- Add up look-through exposure: the same mega caps inside index funds, tech funds and single stocks.
- Compare your return with an equal-weight benchmark as well as the S&P 500, to see how much came from a few names.
- Check how your holdings did in 2022, when the leaders fell hardest.
- Decide in advance how large any one stock or theme may grow before you rebalance.
For your Mag 7 share specifically, see how much Mag 7 exposure do I have?
How to watch market breadth with Exent
- Market Intelligence tracks the Mag 7 against the other 493 every day, with cited sources and cross-asset signals.
- Portfolio Analysis groups your holdings into correlation clusters, so a heavy tilt to the leaders shows up as one bet.
- Crash replays show how your mix behaved in 2022, when narrow leadership reversed.
Frequently asked questions
A small group of very large companies, mostly in technology and AI-related hardware, has grown earnings and valuations faster than the rest. Because the S&P 500 is weighted by market value, their gains dominate the index.
In Exent’s data, 194 of the 476 largest US stocks, or 40.8%, beat the S&P 500 in the year to Sep 30, 2026. Over 10 years the share was similar at 36.5%.
Not on its own. Narrow rallies can last for years and sometimes broaden out. They do make the index more dependent on a few companies, which raises the impact of bad news about them.
That the average stock has lagged the index. The equal-weight S&P 500 trailed the cap-weighted index in 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 to date in Exent’s data.
Not as a group. In Exent’s data the equal-weighted Magnificent 7 returned 10.5% in 2026 to Sep 30, slightly below the S&P 500, while several chip stocks outside the group rose far more.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.