How Often Does a Stock Go Up 10x?
How many large US stocks became ten‑baggers in the last decade, the full list, how far each one fell along the way, and what the base rate means for anyone trying to pick one.
ResourcesGuide
How Do I Find the Next Nvidia?
An honest answer: nobody can name it in advance. Here is what the research says about how rare stocks like Nvidia are, what past big winners had in common, what holding one felt like, and how investors size bets on the hunt.
Key takeaways
- No one can reliably name the next Nvidia in advance. Research by Hendrik Bessembinder found that about 4% of US listed companies created all of the stock market’s net wealth from 1926 to 2016; most stocks did worse than Treasury bills.
- Even among today’s largest US companies, only 47 of 422 (11%) rose 10x or more in the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, and that list contains only survivors.
- Past big winners tended to share a fast-growing market, rising revenue and margins, reinvestment and, often, a product other companies had to buy. Many companies with those traits still failed.
- Holding a winner hurt: Nvidia fell 85% in the 2007–09 financial crisis, 56% in late 2018 and 62% in 2022 before its biggest gains.
- Investors who hunt for big winners usually cap each bet at a small share of the portfolio, so a total loss is survivable and a big win still matters.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
In this article
How do I find the next Nvidia?
You probably won’t find it on purpose, and neither will most professionals. What you can do is understand the odds, look for the traits past winners shared, and size any bet so that being wrong is affordable. Nvidia returned about 13,575% in the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, or 63.5% a year, in Exent’s data. Very few stocks ever do anything like that, and the ones that will are hard to tell apart from the many that look similar and fail.
This guide covers the base rates first, then the research on what early winners had in common, then the drops that holders sat through, and finally why most “next Nvidia” picks don’t work out.
How rare are stocks like Nvidia?
Very rare. Stock returns are skewed: a handful of enormous winners account for most of the market’s gains, and the typical stock does poorly. The best-documented evidence comes from Hendrik Bessembinder’s research.
| Study | Sample | Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Bessembinder, Journal of Financial Economics (2018) | About 26,000 US stocks, 1926–2016 | About 4% of companies created all net wealth above Treasury bills; most stocks trailed T-bills over their lives. |
| Bessembinder, Chen, Choi and Wei, Financial Analysts Journal (2023) | More than 64,000 global stocks, 1990–2020 | 2.4% of firms created all $75.7 trillion of net wealth; 55.2% of US stocks trailed one-month T-bills. |
| Exent’s data, 10 years to Sep 30, 2026 | 422 of the largest US companies today | 47 rose 10x or more; only Nvidia rose more than 100x. Survivors only, so the real rate is lower. |
The last row is the generous case: it looks only at companies that are large today, so it leaves out every stock that shrank or disappeared. A random pick from the whole market had far worse odds than one in nine.
What did past big winners have in common early on?
Looking back, past big winners usually combined a market that grew for years, revenue that grew with it, profit margins that rose as they scaled, and management that reinvested in the business. Many also sold something other companies had to buy: Nvidia’s chips and software became the standard tool for training AI models, a market far larger than the gaming graphics business it started in.
Systematic research points the same way, with caveats. A 2025 working paper by Anna Yartseva at Birmingham City University, “The Alchemy of Multibagger Stocks”, studied 464 US stocks that rose at least tenfold between 2009 and 2024. It found that small, profitable companies trading at modest valuations, with a high free cash flow yield, did best, and that price momentum mattered but reversed quickly. It is a working paper and not yet peer-reviewed.
The catch is that these traits are common. Thousands of companies have a growing market and rising sales at some point; only a few compound for a decade. More detail is in what the biggest stock winners had in common.
What did Nvidia shareholders have to sit through?
Repeated crashes. Nvidia fell by more than half three times between 2007 and 2022, and lost 50.3% in calendar 2022 alone, the year before its largest gains. Each fall came with plausible reasons to sell.
| Selloff | Nvidia (NVDA) peak-to-trough fall | S&P 500 (SPY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2007–09 financial crisis | −85% | −56% |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −56% | −20% |
| 2020 COVID crash | −38% | −34% |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −62% | −25% |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −33% | −19% |
The pattern is older than Nvidia. Amazon’s stock lost more than 90% in the dot-com bust before its long climb. The stock-by-stock record for the decade’s winners is in how far the big winners fell.
Why do most “next Nvidia” picks fail?
Because the story is easy to find and the outcome is not. Most “next Nvidia” pitches pick a company in a hot theme. Three things usually go wrong. Competition: a growing market attracts rivals, and only one or two keep the profits. Price: a stock that already reflects years of success can do poorly even if the business does well. Timing: themes run ahead of revenue, and investors who buy after a big run often buy near a high.
Cisco is the dot-com example. It was briefly the world’s most valuable company in 2000 and kept growing as a business, yet its stock took until December 2025 to regain its March 2000 record close. Being the leader of a real trend was not enough; the price paid mattered.
How can I spot the next big tech winner early?
Investors and analysts screen for a few signals, and each one has a high false-positive rate. Treat them as a way to build a short list for research, not as a buy signal.
| Signal | Why investors look at it | How often it misleads |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growing fast for several years | Big winners needed a growing market | Common among companies that later stall or get competed away |
| Gross and operating margins rising | Shows pricing power as the business scales | Margins can peak at the top of a cycle, as in semiconductors |
| Analysts raising estimates | Shows the business is running ahead of expectations | Revisions can reverse quickly when a cycle turns |
| Strong price momentum | Momentum has a long research record | Of large US stocks that doubled in a year (2017–2025), 30% lost money the next year |
| Several top-rated analysts agree | Conviction from analysts with good past records | Analysts herd, and consensus can be late |
How to set these up as a repeatable screen is in how to screen for high‑potential stocks.
How much should I bet on a potential big winner?
Small enough that a total loss is survivable, large enough that a big win matters. Many self-directed investors hold an index core and keep speculative picks in a limited satellite; see position sizing.
Illustrative: on a $1,000,000 portfolio, a 2% position is $20,000. If the company fails, the portfolio loses 2%. If the stock rises 10x, the position becomes $200,000 and adds 18% to the portfolio. Ten such bets, where one wins big and the rest go to zero, still add about 0%: the math only works if you can hold the winner through its crashes.
- Write down why you own each speculative stock and what would prove you wrong.
- Set a maximum size per stock and per theme, since “next Nvidia” picks often share one theme.
- Decide in advance what you will do after a 50% fall, because winners have them too.
- Check how a new idea moves with what you already own before buying.
How Exent approaches the hunt
- Gems are Exent’s top picks: stocks where several of the best‑rated analysts (4★ and above on past accuracy) agree. They are our hunt for the next big winners; past accuracy, not a prediction.
- Before buying, upload your holdings (a screenshot, CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet; no brokerage login) and see whether the idea joins a correlation cluster you already own.
- Use the what‑if simulator to set the position size and see the effect on the portfolio’s drawdown and crash replays before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
Nobody can say in advance. Stocks that rise 100-fold are extremely rare, and the companies that look most like the next Nvidia today often fail to deliver. Research on past winners describes traits, not names.
Very low. Research by Hendrik Bessembinder found that about 4% of US listed companies created all of the market’s net wealth from 1926 to 2016, and only one of today’s largest US stocks, Nvidia itself, rose more than 100x in the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026.
Nvidia fell about 85% in the 2007–09 financial crisis, about 56% in the late-2018 selloff and about 62% in the 2022 bear market, and it lost 50.3% in calendar 2022.
Most potential big winners do not work out, and the ones that do fall sharply along the way. Many investors limit any single speculative stock to a small share of the portfolio so a loss is survivable.
Not reliably. Some analysts have better records than others and their agreement can be a useful research signal, but no tool or analyst can name long-term winners in advance with confidence.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.