Risk-on and risk-off describe whether investors are reaching for growth or running for safety. Here is what each looks like across markets, with real data from stress months.
Market risk reading, cross‑asset context and an events calendar: see Exent →
It is shorthand for the market’s appetite for risk. In a risk‑on phase, money flows to assets that do well when growth is strong. In a risk‑off phase, it flows to assets seen as safe. The labels describe a mood, not a formal regime. For the broader idea, see market regime.
Exent’s data, average return in the 16 months since mid‑2016 when SPY fell more than 4% (as of Sep 30, 2026):
| Asset | Avg in stress months | 2020 crash | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| T‑bills (BIL) | +0.2% | +0.3% | +1.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | −0.4% | −0.9% | −0.8% |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | −1.9% | +13.4% | −31.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −6.7% | −19.4% | −18.2% |
| Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) | −7.6% | −12.9% | −32.6% |
| Small caps (IWM) | −8.4% | −28.4% | −20.5% |
Knowing how each holding behaves in risk‑off months tells you how your portfolio will feel in a selloff. The guide to cross‑asset signals explains the common ones. Related terms: credit stress and market sentiment.
Historically, cash and short-term Treasuries have been the most reliable. Long Treasuries and gold have helped in some selloffs and not in others.
Look at several signals together: investor fear, high-beta versus low-volatility stocks, defensive versus cyclical sectors, and strain in credit markets.
No. Risk-off can last days or weeks inside a bull market. A bear market is a decline of 20% or more from a peak.
Market intel provides a Risk ON / Neutral / Risk OFF reading from four pillars, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. Context for reviewing a plan, not a crash forecast.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.