Which of My Stocks Are Most Sensitive to the Economy?
The holdings that move most with the broad market, interest rates, oil, the dollar and credit conditions. Here is how a factor regression finds them, a sample from real data, and where this analysis stands in Exent.
Key takeaways
- The most economy‑sensitive holdings are the ones whose returns move most with broad macro factors. In Exent’s data as of Sep 30, 2026, Nvidia’s market beta was 2.21 and Coca‑Cola’s was 0.32.
- A factor regression measures this: it explains each holding’s daily returns with the moves of several market factors at once, giving one sensitivity per factor.
- Exent measures 13 market factors, from long‑term Treasury bonds and credit to oil, the dollar, gold and bitcoin, and estimates each holding’s sensitivity to 11 of them over about a year.
- This per‑holding macro view is rolling out as part of Market Intelligence. Market beta and correlation clusters are already part of Portfolio Analysis.
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Which of my stocks are most sensitive to the economy?
The ones whose prices have moved most with the broad forces behind the economy: the overall stock market, interest rates, credit conditions, energy prices and the dollar. Sector labels give a first hint. Carmakers, chipmakers and industrial companies tend to swing with the business cycle; consumer staples and utilities tend to swing less. But labels miss a lot. Two “tech” stocks can react to rates in opposite ways, and a retailer can behave more like a bond than like the market.
Measuring beats guessing. The simplest measure is beta, a holding’s sensitivity to the whole market. A fuller one splits that sensitivity across several factors at once. That is a multi‑factor beta.
Sample: market sensitivity of 10 well‑known stocks
Sample. Market beta, and the correlation of monthly returns with the S&P 500 (SPY) and with long‑term Treasury bonds (TLT) over 60 months. Exent’s data, as of Sep 30, 2026.
| Stock | Sector | Market beta | Correlation with SPY | Correlation with TLT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NVDA) | Technology | 2.21 | 0.69 | 0.41 |
| Ford (F) | Consumer cyclical | 1.93 | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| Tesla (TSLA) | Consumer cyclical | 1.90 | 0.49 | 0.27 |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | Industrials | 1.58 | 0.65 | 0.33 |
| Apple (AAPL) | Technology | 1.07 | 0.68 | 0.44 |
| JPMorgan Chase (JPM) | Financials | 1.02 | 0.66 | 0.31 |
| Home Depot (HD) | Consumer cyclical | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| NextEra Energy (NEE) | Utilities | 0.65 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| Coca‑Cola (KO) | Consumer defensive | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | Energy | 0.22 | 0.13 | −0.03 |
- Nvidia (NVDA)
- Sector
- Technology
- Market beta
- 2.21
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.69
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.41
- Ford (F)
- Sector
- Consumer cyclical
- Market beta
- 1.93
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.67
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.43
- Tesla (TSLA)
- Sector
- Consumer cyclical
- Market beta
- 1.90
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.27
- Caterpillar (CAT)
- Sector
- Industrials
- Market beta
- 1.58
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.65
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.33
- Apple (AAPL)
- Sector
- Technology
- Market beta
- 1.07
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.68
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.44
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
- Sector
- Financials
- Market beta
- 1.02
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.66
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.31
- Home Depot (HD)
- Sector
- Consumer cyclical
- Market beta
- 1.00
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.63
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.55
- NextEra Energy (NEE)
- Sector
- Utilities
- Market beta
- 0.65
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.43
- Coca‑Cola (KO)
- Sector
- Consumer defensive
- Market beta
- 0.32
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation with TLT
- 0.36
- Exxon Mobil (XOM)
- Sector
- Energy
- Market beta
- 0.22
- Correlation with SPY
- 0.13
- Correlation with TLT
- −0.03
Two things stand out. Exxon Mobil barely moved with the stock market over these five years, so its swings came from something this table does not measure, such as oil prices. And Home Depot, with a market beta of 1.00, had the highest correlation with long‑term Treasuries in the group, a sign of rate sensitivity that a beta alone does not show. That is the gap a multi‑factor view fills. See how rate‑sensitive your portfolio is and how exposed you are to oil for those two factors in depth.
How does a factor regression measure macro sensitivity?
- Pick the factors. Each factor is a market move you can measure every day, such as long‑term Treasury bond prices or oil.
- Line up the history. Take a holding’s daily returns and each factor’s daily returns over the same period.
- Fit them together. The regression finds the mix of factor moves that best explains the holding’s moves. Each factor gets a sensitivity: how much the holding tended to move when that factor moved, with the other factors held still.
- Check how much is explained. The share of the holding’s movement the factors explain is its R‑squared. A low one means the stock mostly moves on its own news.
- Add up the portfolio. Weight each holding’s sensitivities by its share of the portfolio to get the portfolio’s exposure to each factor.
Measuring all factors at once matters. Oil and energy stocks, or rates and growth stocks, move together, so a one‑factor‑at‑a‑time view double counts. The trade‑off is that factors that overlap heavily are hard to separate on a year of data.
Which factors does Exent measure?
| Factor | What it captures |
|---|---|
| The broad US stock market | General economic and risk appetite |
| Long‑term Treasury bonds | Interest rates and inflation expectations |
| Short‑term Treasury bonds | Fed policy expectations (measured, not regressed) |
| Corporate bonds against Treasuries | Credit conditions |
| Oil | Energy prices |
| The US dollar | Currency moves |
| Gold | Demand for safe havens |
| Growth stocks against value stocks | Style rotation |
| Small companies against large ones | Domestic growth and financing conditions |
| Chip stocks against the market | The semiconductor and AI cycle |
| High‑beta against low‑volatility stocks | Risk appetite (measured, not regressed) |
| Consumer discretionary against staples | Consumer spending strength |
| Bitcoin | Crypto‑driven moves |
Each holding needs about six months of trading history; younger listings are shown as not having enough history. When the factors explain little of a holding’s moves, Exent labels its main driver “company‑specific” rather than forcing a macro story onto it.
Where is this in Exent today?
The per‑holding macro analysis is rolling out as part of Market Intelligence, where it connects the week’s market moves and upcoming economic releases to the holdings they touch. It describes exposure; it does not tell you what to buy or sell. Until it reaches your account, these parts of Portfolio Analysis already cover much of the same ground:
- Market beta for every holding and for the portfolio as a whole.
- Correlation clusters: which holdings move together, whatever their sector label.
- Crash replays through five real crises, including the 2022 rate-hike bear market.
- Market Intelligence’s events calendar and cross-asset signals for the macro backdrop.
What a sensitivity cannot tell you
A sensitivity is a description of the past year, not a forecast. Companies change, and relationships between factors change with the economy. In 2022 the S&P 500 (SPY) returned −18.2% and long‑term Treasuries (TLT) returned −31.2% in Exent’s data. Use sensitivities to see which macro risks you hold in size, then judge whether you mean to hold them. The concept page on factor exposure goes further.
Frequently asked questions
Usually the ones with the highest market beta and the biggest sensitivities to rates, credit and oil. A factor regression on about a year of daily returns measures this holding by holding.
A model that explains a stock’s returns with several market factors at once. Exent measures 13 factors and estimates each holding’s sensitivity to 11 of them; the other two overlap too much with the broad market to separate reliably.
It is rolling out as part of Market Intelligence. Market beta, correlation clusters and crash replays are already part of Portfolio Analysis.
No. A low beta only means the stock moved less with the market in the measured period. It can still be very sensitive to something else, as Exxon Mobil is to oil.
No. It describes how your holdings have reacted to market factors. Decisions stay with you.
Know when to hold the index, and when to step aside.
Market Intelligence reads the market regime and tells you whether the backdrop favors taking risk or protecting capital.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.