Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Michael Carroll is one of the top‑ranked analysts in Exent’s 7‑year backtest. What Michael covers, how Michael’s ratings lean, how fast price targets were reached and the ratings from before the last 30 days; the full record and the newest calls are members‑only.
Michael Carroll of RBC Capital ranks among the top 50 real estate analysts in Exent’s ranking, with a focus on real estate. The top of the ranking is what Exent Gems follows, so Michael’s exact rank, hit rate and live calls are for members.
| Metric | Michael Carroll | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Exent rank | — | |
| Price‑target hit rate | 52.4% | |
| Calls up after 12 months | 64.0% | |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +13.4% | |
| Median days to hit target | 91 days | |
| Stocks covered | 27 | — |
| Time to reach the target | Michael Carroll |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 12.0% |
| 30–90 days | 21.9% |
| 90–180 days | 29.0% |
| Over 180 days | 37.2% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
COLD · LINE · AHR · EPR · DEA · DOC · STAG · KRC
In the past year Michael’s ratings were 45% Buy, 52% Hold and 4% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | OHI | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $51.00 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | DEA | Reiterated: Sell | Sell | $24.00 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | DHC | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $8.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | AHR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $61.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CTRE | Downgraded: Hold | Hold | $43.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | COLD | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $16.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | LTC | Upgraded: Buy | Buy | $45.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | LINE | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $48.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VTR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $99.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | NHP | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $17.00 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | JAN | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $34.00 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ARE | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $51.00 |
Ratings from the last 30 days are members‑only in Exent Gems, with the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree; older ratings are shown in full.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 20, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring, Michael Carroll ranks among the top 50 real estate analysts in Exent’s ranking, based on a 7-year backtest of price-target hit rate, returns after calls and number of ratings. The exact rank, hit rate and live calls are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Michael Carroll’s price-target hit rate is part of the members-only record in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). For comparison, the average analyst’s price targets were reached 52.4% of the time.
Michael Carroll (RBC Capital) covers 27 stocks, mostly in real estate. The most frequently rated are COLD, LINE, AHR, EPR, DEA.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.