Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
How often Manav Gupta’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 869 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Manav Gupta of UBS ranks #77 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 5.0★ rating and a focus on energy. Over a 7‑year lookback, 54.1% of Manav’s price targets were reached, 1.7 points above the 52.4% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Manav Gupta | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 54.1% | 52.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 113 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 64.8% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +15.7% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 59.0% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −21.7% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 869 | — |
| Stocks covered | 57 | — |
| Time to reach the target | Manav Gupta |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 17.9% |
| 30–90 days | 25.2% |
| 90–180 days | 25.7% |
| Over 180 days | 31.2% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
In the past year Manav’s ratings were 83% Buy, 17% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | TSX-IMO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $205.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | DINO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $126.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | PSX | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $300.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | MPC | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $450.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | VLO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $450.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | VG | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $21.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | BG | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $155.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | KMI | Rated: Buy | Buy | $43.00 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | MPC | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $450.00 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | DINO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $126.00 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | PSX | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $300.00 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | VLO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $450.00 |
Live ratings from Manav Gupta and the other top‑ranked analysts, and the stocks where they agree, are in Exent Stocks Radar.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 17, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Manav Gupta ranks #77 of 1,000 with a 5.0★ rating. 54.1% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 64.8% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Manav Gupta’s success rate is 69.2% by the ranking source and 54.1% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 113 days to reach a target.
Manav Gupta (UBS) covers 57 stocks, mostly in energy. The most frequently rated are XOM, VLO, PSX, DINO, BE.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.