Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
John Heinbockel is one of the top‑ranked analysts in Exent’s 7‑year backtest. What John covers, how John’s ratings lean, how fast price targets were reached and the ratings from before the last 30 days; the full record and the newest calls are members‑only.
John Heinbockel of Guggenheim ranks among the top 50 consumer staples analysts in Exent’s ranking, with a focus on consumer staples. The top of the ranking is what Exent Gems follows, so John’s exact rank, hit rate and live calls are for members.
| Metric | John Heinbockel | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Exent rank | — | |
| Price‑target hit rate | 53.6% | |
| Calls up after 12 months | 64.6% | |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +13.4% | |
| Median days to hit target | 91 days | |
| Stocks covered | 23 | — |
| Time to reach the target | John Heinbockel |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 12.8% |
| 30–90 days | 33.9% |
| 90–180 days | 27.5% |
| Over 180 days | 25.8% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
SYY · KR · UNFI · TGT · COST · DG · DLTR · LTH
In the past year John’s ratings were 79% Buy, 21% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | ||||
| Oct 8, 2026 | ||||
| Oct 5, 2026 | ||||
| Oct 2, 2026 | ||||
| Sep 17, 2026 | YSWY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $32.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | SYY | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $90.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | YSWY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $32.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | SYY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $90.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | KR | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $66.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | KR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $66.00 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | FIVE | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $290.00 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | DLTR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $145.00 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | PFGC | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $125.00 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | USFD | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $120.00 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | SYY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $90.00 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | DLTR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $145.00 |
John published 4 ratings in the last 30 days, the latest on Oct 12, 2026. Ratings from the last 30 days are members‑only in Exent Gems, with the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree; older ratings are shown in full.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Oct 20, 2026; ranking updated Oct 21, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring, John Heinbockel ranks among the top 50 consumer staples analysts in Exent’s ranking, based on a 7-year backtest of price-target hit rate, returns after calls and number of ratings. The exact rank, hit rate and live calls are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
John Heinbockel’s price-target hit rate is part of the members-only record in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). For comparison, the average analyst’s price targets were reached 53.6% of the time.
John Heinbockel (Guggenheim) covers 23 stocks, mostly in consumer staples. The most frequently rated are SYY, KR, UNFI, TGT, COST.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.